Monday, 31 October 2011

Sterling gained against the US dollar on Friday afternoon in the wake of increased risk appetite following on from last week’s EU summit. The announcement that bondholders would take a 50% cut and that the EFSF would be boosted was given a positive endorsement by the markets, yet there are still further risks to come. The week ahead in the UK will see growth come back under the spotlight. Business surveys and the first estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP are expected to point towards to a weakening outlook, but last week saw improving figures on public finances which validates the coalition’s austerity measures. Volatility is expected to remain high so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the big news of last week was the EU summit which – after being postponed – delivered on its main goals; agreement from bondholders on a 50% ‘haircut’ to repayment amounts and an expansion of the EFSF. However, with little detail announced over the implementation of these measures, some analysts remain anxious. Growth will be back on the agenda in Europe as well this week with a G20 meeting and region-wide business activity figures. Ensure you don’t lose out and speak to one of the team today.

In the USA, last week saw solid 3rd Quarter GDP growth figures and the coming week is expected to show improving manufacturing surveys. We also have the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting and while no changes to monetary policy are expected, the meeting will give a good assessment of the Fed’s stance on the current outlook/ risks facing the US recovery. Friday sees the release of non-farm payroll data – a potential market mover. Call in to ensure you are protected.

Elsewhere, the Japanese government intervened over the weekend to weaken its currency after it hit a post-war high against the US dollar. The moves saw the currency weaken by as much as 5% as authorities moved in to prevent Japanese goods from being prohibitively expensive. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Friday, 28 October 2011

Sterling hit a 7 week high against the US dollar but dropped by around 1.5% against the euro as European leaders struck a deal on the euro zone debt crisis. The agreement saw risk appetite improve significantly and investors look to invest in the euro again. Sterling’s underperformance against the euro has been put down to a recent run of investors reversing ‘safe haven’ holdings in sterling as UK data underperformed and the Bank of England announced a 2nd round of Quantitative Easing. Sterling had held steady all week against the euro as investors awaited the results of the EU summit, however the announcement that came early 7 yesterday morning saw a large swing of volatility. One upside for sterling is that it may strengthen towards $1.63/£1 against the US dollar – call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro surged by 2% against the US dollar as investors traded on the optimism of the announcement of a solution to the euro zone debt crisis. After a night of deadlocked talks, markets hardly reacted at all, but when the US markets opened, the euro made ground breaking above $1.41/€1, coming within touching distance of $1.42/€1. Stock markets rallied around the world on the market optimism. Some analysts however are less than optimistic pointing to the lack of detail on implementation of the plan.

In the USA, with all eyes on Europe it was fairly easy to forget about important data released in the USA – 3rd Quarter GDP growth figures. The US economy grew at a pace that was expected by markets, delivering figures of 2.5% growth. This was boosted by an increase in consumer spending and other positive economic data, with unemployment claims decreasing by 2000 for the week. Call in now for a live exchange rate to avoid losing out.

Elsewhere, in other news this week, the New Zealand dollar strengthened against its counterparts as the central bank governor announced plans to potentially increase interest rates. The Japanese central bank announced a fresh round of 5 trillion yen’s worth of Quantitative Easing.

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Thursday, 27 October 2011

Sterling fell off earlier highs against the US dollar yesterday as it followed the euro downwards against the US currency as markets nervously awaited the results from yesterday’s EU summit. After a night of deadlocked talks the EU summit finally delivered what most had been expecting – a 50% write down for holders of Greek bonds and a boost to the European Financial Stability Fund bringing it up to €1 trillion. Sterling is trading in a similar range as previous days this morning, but down against the euro as investors cautiously bought back into the euro on the news. There is limited data out today in the UK, so expect sterling to trade on market reaction to the summit.

In the euro zone, whilst there was an announcement that a decision had been reached on increasing the bailout fund and also recapitalising banks in the region to the tune of €106bn, there was no concrete plan for tackling the ballooning debt in less competitive European countries. After producing a (vague) austerity plan, Italian parliamentarians ended up brawling and grabbing each other’s throats – a photo that you will no doubt have seen by the end of today. Once again, the rhetoric was strong like most other EU summits, however there was a lack of detail that will see things drag on further. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts as investors felt happier taking risks. It was noticeable in the fact that the move was a gradual one – i.e. no-one is too sure what to make of the EU summit announcement, other than in principle it is a good thing. Cautious appetite for risk is likely to be the trading pattern today, so if you are buying US dollars, it may be a good time to do so. In addition, there was speculation yesterday that the Federal Reserve would announce another round of Quantitative Easing. Call in now for a live exchange rate – we could be in for further volatility today.

Elsewhere, Japan announced that it would expand its Quantitative Easing by another 5 trillion yen. This was in line with expectations and did lead to some yen buying. In addition, the New Zealand dollar strengthened as Reserve Bank Governor hinted at an interest rate increase.


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Wednesday, 26 October 2011

Sterling slipped against the US dollar, falling off a 6 week high as perceived ‘riskier’ currencies came under pressure on growing concerns over today’s EU summit. However, sterling was slightly higher against the euro, hovering around €1.15/£1 as optimism over a fully comprehensive solution slipped. Markets have overall been very quiet as investors tread water to see the results of the summit, with no-one willing to hold large positions in case the reaction causes large movements against them. This saw hardly any movement as Bank of England governor Mervyn King testified to the Treasury over the decision to restart Quantitative Easing this month. It is a relatively quiet day for data with the main focus being on the European summit so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, plans to announce a final rescue deal today seemingly hit further hiccups yesterday as it was announced that a key meeting of European economic and finance ministers has been delayed. This meeting would prepare the detail of any political decision, so the implication is that a full package will not be available to scrutiny today. Markets clung onto optimism that a solution will be reached, but the euro slipped away against the US dollar on poor US data. It goes without saying that today could be volatile so call in now to protect yourself.

In the USA, poor financial results from several companies combined with a sharp drop in consumer confidence figures to add to a cautious tone yesterday. Demand for US government bonds rose as investors looked for a safe haven ahead of today’s EU summit. In addition, the US dollar hovered around a record low against the Japanese yen on concerns over intervention by the Japanese authorities held back further purchases of the Japanese ultra-safe haven currency.

Elsewhere, the Vatican has finally waded into the debate over the credit crisis calling for sweeping reforms of financial markets and the creation of an ethical global authority to regulate financial markets.

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Tuesday, 25 October 2011

Sterling dropped against the US dollar yesterday, coming off a 6 week high of $1.6001/£1 as uncertainty over the European debt crisis put pressure on ‘riskier’ currencies. The poor appetite for risk and lack of any positive UK data meant that investors took profits from sterling’s earlier rally. With the UK exposed to the euro region, investors were increasingly negative over the pound’s prospects in the event that Wednesday’s announcement over the European debt crisis fails to deliver an effective solution. Out today we have UK current account data so call in now for a live exchange rate to ensure that you don’t lose out.

In the euro zone, the euro gained against the US dollar for most of the day as markets became cautiously optimistic about Wednesday’s announcement despite rumours of political bickering over the weekend and disagreement over several key parts of the package. Aside from the obvious focus on the debt crisis, there was mixed purchasing manager data from across the region which further added to the gloomy picture of European recovery. Call in now for a live exchange rate as there is likely to be further volatility surrounding Wednesday’s announcement.

In the USA, the US dollar was driven by risk appetite yesterday with US stocks performing well after positive earnings figures and a number of potential merger deals. The US dollar regained some of the ground lost earlier to the euro as doubts emerged surrounding the debt crisis package, however there was also some profit taking. Better than expected Chinese data helped ease concerns that the country’s economy was faltering and with many investors pinning their hopes on China to drive the global recovery this certainly helped.

Elsewhere, Japanese officials said that a strong yen was causing concern. Officials stated that the central bank would take action to curb excessive trading and speculative movements of the currency.


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Monday, 24 October 2011

Sterling strengthened to a 6 week high against the US dollar this morning as it tracked optimism that a deal would soon be reached to solve the European debt crisis. The weekend’s meetings of European officials (which had already been delayed by a week and was supposed to deliver a comprehensive solution by yesterday) has been met with cautious optimism by the markets, despite bickering and the postponement of the main announcement. Prime Minister David Cameron had issued a stark warning that the crisis was having a “chilling effect” on growth. In terms of data, it is a relatively quiet week with UK current account figures being the biggest event tomorrow. In addition, a number of policymakers from the Bank of England are making speeches which are likely to be followed closely.

In the euro zone, cracks appeared to be showing in Europe’s recent show of solidarity as politicians bickered and yet again pushed back the deadline for presenting a solution to the euro zone crisis. The divisions seem to revolve around the level of the ‘haircut’ required by holders of Greek government bonds. Several members are pushing for a 50% cut against the 21% that was announced in July. Despite the announcement of a ‘comprehensive solution’ being delayed yet again, markets are quite optimistic and as a result the euro has strengthened this morning. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar has come under pressure over the last few days as reports suggested that the Federal Reserve was preparing for a new round of Quantitative Easing and optimism over a potential debt deal for the euro zone built. This week we have consumer confidence, new home sales and advance GDP figures so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

Elsewhere, oil prices fell on the news of Colonel Gadaffi’s death on the expectation that oil production would be back to pre-conflict levels. This is unlikely to happen overnight, but supply should improve. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Friday, 21 October 2011

Sterling fell after an earlier rally against the US dollar yesterday, but gained against the euro after investors questioned how much progress would be made in the European debt crisis over the weekend. Sterling got an earlier boost against the US dollar as an unexpected jump in retail sales in the UK saw a short-lived rally die out following the view that this would do little to change the faltering UK recovery’s prospects. Sales rose by 0.6% but sterling is being bogged down by the possibility of more Quantitative Easing. Minutes from the Bank of England’s meeting this week showed the distinct possibility of further easing in the medium term. Call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

In the euro zone, the euro has had a very volatile week ahead of Sunday’s European summit as traders speculated whether the summit will deliver a decisive solution to solve the region’s debt crisis. The ebb and flow between optimism over a comprehensive solution has contrasted with market rumours over German scepticism – especially from the country’s finance minister, leaving a very choppy market this week. This is set to continue into next week and no-one really knows the impact that the summit will have. If markets approve sterling could plummet (albeit briefly) against the euro, but if they do not, we could see a run into the 1.15’s. Ensure you are prepared and why not consider an order to buy to take advantage if the rate does move.

In the USA, data released earlier in the week showed that consumer prices increased by 0.3% but the ‘core’ (i.e. inflation that excludes volatile energy) price inflation only increased by 0.1%. Unemployment figures crept up slightly, but the major driver of the US dollar has been the market expectations with regards to the euro zone. The US dollar strengthened by 0.6% against the euro yesterday. There is serious volatility so ensure you speak to one of the team to ensure you are protected.

Elsewhere, sterling did make gains against ‘riskier’ commodity based currencies – notably the South African rand. Sterling gained by 2% to hit the highest levels against the rand since November 2009. It therefore goes without saying that if you need to buy South African rand, now is a great time.

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Thursday, 20 October 2011

Sterling hit a one month high against the US dollar yesterday, helped by improved investor sentiment towards riskier assets. However, the rally ran out of steam as sterling broke through $1.58/£1 and investors took profits. Sterling strengthened despite minutes from the recent Bank of England meeting that showed real concern about the economic environment internationally – in particular the euro zone. In the medium term, sterling is likely to suffer as growth stagnates around the world. Out later today we have retail sales data that is expected to show no growth on last month as the impact of increasing energy bills bites. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro strengthened across the board on renewed hope that Sunday’s European summit will deliver a decisive solution to solve th region’s debt crisis. Optimism over the potential plan saw a euro rally that has continued despite the downgrade of Spain’s credit rating by rating agency Moody’s and attempts by the German finance minister to play down the optimism over Sunday’s meeting. Out today there is consumer confidence figures so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, data released yesterday showed that consumer prices increased by 0.3% but the ‘core’ (i.e. inflation that excludes volatile energy) price inflation only increased by 0.1%. The slower growth was to all extent ignored by the markets as investors focus on Europe. Out later today, we have unemployment claims figures, existing home sales figures and manufacturing figures so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

Elsewhere, a group of US governors visiting China skirted round the issue of bi-lateral trade frictions and instead focussed on pitching for investment that they hope will boost the fragile recovery back in the USA. The US senate approved a bill last week to put pressure on China to increase the value of the yuan that the USA feels gives it an international price advantage by between 15-40%. Call in now to speak to a trader.

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Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Sterling fell against the US dollar after UK annual inflation data broke above 5%, raising concerns over stagflation that saw many investors start to build bets against the pound. In addition, many expect today’s Bank of England minutes to be particularly negative after the extra £75bn of Quantitative Easing that was announced earlier in the month that saw sterling fall to a 14 month low against the US dollar. Key to the negative outlook for sterling is the fact that the price inflation is linked to commodity prices, not increased economic activity. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

It was a busy day in the euro zone, with German investor sentiment falling to the lowest level for 3 years. In addition, credit rating agency Moody’s warned that it may put a negative outlook on France’s Aaa credit rating in the next 3 months if the costs for bailing out banks stretch the country’s budget too much. There were also concerns over the supposed comprehensive plan to solve the sovereign debt crisis which is to be announced on Sunday. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar continues to react to headlines and rumours over the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. The volatility is exacerbated by a number of large companies reporting earnings to the stock markets including Goldman Sachs that posted a 3rd Quarter loss. Wholesale price inflation came in higher than expected. With consumer price inflation out today, there could be a lower risk of a 3rd round of Quantitative Easing.

Elsewhere, in Norway the Norwegian krone has gained by 2.4% in the last month on expectations of higher interest rates after the finance minister indicated the potential for higher rates. Stresses from the debt crisis still remain but call in to ensure you don’t lose out.

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Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Sterling slipped against the US dollar but gained against the euro yesterday after comments from a German policymaker deflated investor optimism over a potential euro zone bailout. As a result, investors reversed the sell off of US dollars that began over the weekend following positive comments from G20 finance ministers regarding a definitive euro zone package announcement at next weekend’s summit of European leaders. There was relatively little data released in the UK today, with investors awaiting key inflation and retail sales data later in the week which are expected to show that the UK recovery remains weak. Call in now for a live exchange rate to avoid losing out.

In the euro zone, the euro slid by 0.6% against sterling as investors looked to the relatively safer haven of sterling on the negative comments. Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble stated that Sunday’s summit of European leaders will not deliver a definitive solution to the region’s debt problems. Out later today there is German economic sentiment data that is a key measure of confidence in the region. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar strengthened against the euro, coming off a 1 month low against the single currency as investors became worried over Schaeuble’s comments over the European summit this coming Sunday. There is a wide array of data released later today in the USA including wholesale price inflation and some housing data. Ensure you don’t lose out and call in now.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar had a strong week last week as investors looked towards higher yielding growth linked currencies. However, with the reversal in risk appetite yesterday, sterling gained by 0.7% against the currency in a few hours. Ensure you stay on top and take advantage of movements like this by speaking to one of the team at Smart now.

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Monday, 17 October 2011

Sterling hit a one month high on Friday against the US dollar after stronger than expected US retail sales figures helped to boost global risk appetite. Sterling closed the week up by over 1.5% against the US dollar as investors pulled back bets against the pound, but the UK economy remains vulnerable. Growth is weak, public finances are still in a poor state and there is a large exposure to the euro zone which could have a large impact. One group of forecasters downgraded their expectations of UK growth to a mere 0.9% for 2011. It is a relatively quiet day for economic data, but later this week we have the Bank of England’s minutes from the recent meeting where they increased Quantitative Easing by £75bn.

In the euro zone, the euro has started relatively stronger this week after strong US retail sales data on Friday and positive comments from the G20 meeting over the weekend. The finance ministers pledged to ensure that banks were adequately capitalised and called for a comprehensive solution to the crisis to be announced at next week’s EU summit. In terms of data, there is construction activity data later in the week so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, strong retail sales figures on Friday saw the US dollar weaken over the weekend and markets are looking towards today’s industrial production number for further indications of better than expected growth in the last period. Positive comments regarding the euro zone should see risk appetite improve and the US dollar come under pressure. Later in the week there is housing data and unemployment figures so call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, following the boost in risk appetite, the Australian dollar strengthened by 5.5% against the US dollar last week. Stronger employment figures reversed many analyst expectations of interest rate cuts and also helped boost the dollar’s prospects. Call in now to ensure you are not adversely affected by currency market movements.

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Friday, 14 October 2011

Sterling fell against the US dollar yesterday, tracking weakness in the euro and as concerns over the UK economy’s fragility impacted on sterling’s prospects. Last week’s shock move by the Bank of England to pump an additional £75bn into the UK economy through a second round of Quantitative Easing has also not helped sterling this week. However, the effect has been less detrimental to sterling than when QE was first introduced in 2008. With many developed countries staring down the barrel of further monetary easing, the pre-emptive moves by the Bank have been seen as a positive thing. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro fell off 1 month highs against the US dollar on Thursday as investors became concerned over European banks. In what has been a volatile week, Slovakia’s parliament eventually approved plans for the expansion of the European bailout fund after initially voting against the measures earlier in the week. Even with a strengthened bailout fund, European banks remain vulnerable as the ECB warned that any sovereign debt defaults would damage the credibility of the euro.

In the USA, it has been an interesting week, with tensions hotting up between the USA and China over a potential US bill to levy tariffs on Chinese imports in order to mitigate China’s artificially undervalued yuan that has damaged US manufacturers. China is the biggest holder of US government debt, so the US has to be careful not to cause an upset – especially given the funding difficulties faced earlier in the year. Call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

Elsewhere, with the focus so heavily on the European debt crisis this week, the Australian dollar has been trading flat against the US dollar despite gaining initially following a decline in the unemployment rate for September. However, weak trade data from China damaged any further gains for the currency. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Thursday, 13 October 2011

Sterling hit a 4 week high against the US dollar yesterday, falling just short of $1.58/£1 but closing the day up by over 1%. Sterling shrugged off figures that showed the highest level of unemployment since 1994 as investors seemingly reversed excessively short positions against the pound i.e. bought back sterling after betting it would fall. After an initial plummet in the value of sterling, markets have warmed to the Bank of England’s uncharacteristically proactive approach to monetary policy. With most other developed countries looking at further easing themselves in the coming months, the move doesn’t look as bad as it did the first time round. Cal in now for a live exchange rate as there is UK trade data released today which could cause some movement.

In the euro zone, the euro rallied against the US dollar, hitting a one month high against the US currency on hopes that (despite a ‘no’ vote) Slovakia’s parliament would approve an expansion of the European Financial Stability Fund, which is seen as a critical move in the survival of the euro zone. Some analysts feel that there are numerous political issues facing the region that mean the euro is marginally overvalued at its current price. Call in now for a live rate.

In the USA, analysts are becoming more and more concerned about growing tensions between the USA and China over a US bill to pressure China into allowing its currency to appreciate. The US argues that the undervalued yuan exchange rate harms US manufacturers by maintaining artificially cheap prices of Chinese goods. If the bill passes, the USA’s biggest creditor (China) could end up retaliating. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, mining stocks gained yesterday on the gradual recovery of precious metal prices as expectations gained over a reversal of China’s recent poor data. The Australian dollar is closely linked to commodities so call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Wednesday, 12 October 2011

Sterling slipped against the US dollar yesterday after investors took profits from several days of gains and mixed data failed to stop concerns over poor UK economic data. An estimate of UK growth data for August showed industrial output exceeding expectations with a 0.2% increase but manufacturing growth showing a 0.3% contraction. Furthermore, comments from a Bank of England policymaker mean that UK monetary policy is set to remain loose for some time. Out later today we have the UK claimant count change, so call in now for a live exchange rate to avoid losing out to any adverse figures.

In the euro zone, the euro shed Monday’s gains against the US dollar as investors became concerned over a Slovak vote on changes to the European Financial Stability Fund appeared to hit snags. Also, whilst the ‘troika’ of the EU, IMF and ECB confirmed that the next tranche of Greek aid would be paid in early November, it warned that Athens had made patchy progress in meeting the terms of the bailout. Out today we have an array of industrial figures so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar has stabilised over the past few days as fears over another recession subside following last week’s better than expected non-farm payroll data. The US dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc as investors moved out of the ultra safe Swiss currency.

Elsewhere, Turkey has made moves to defend the Turkish lira as investors pull back from emerging market stocks in the face of a European default. The Turkish central bank last week sold a record $1.1bn to keep the lira off record lows against the US dollar.

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Tuesday, 11 October 2011

Sterling fell dramatically against a much stronger euro yesterday as France and Germany announced a new plan to recapitalise European banks. Sterling made gains against the US dollar as a fresh wave of risk appetite saw investors reverse ‘safe haven’ positions in the US dollar. The lack of UK data meant that sterling’s moves were largely driven by swings in risk appetite. Sterling seems to have recovered from the knee jerk reaction to the additional £75bn Quantitative Easing that was announced last week as many analysts realise that the pre-emptive move by the Bank of England is actually quite positive. Out today we have key manufacturing production figures so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the news of the pledge by the French and German leaders Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel was met with relief by many, seeing the euro strengthen by 1.5% against sterling and testing recent sterling lows. Whilst many hope the single currency to cling on, sentiment remains very fragile as European leaders have disappointed many times before. The most cynical of analysts will point to the fact that no concrete detail has been outlined. ECB president Trichet is speaking later today so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, stock markets rallied on optimism over a potential deal for Europe and the US dollar fell as investors moved out of ‘safe haven’ investments into other ‘riskier’ currencies. It is a relatively quiet day on the data front so call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, Japan’s ruling party policy chief said Japanese yen selling and intervention was needed to counter an extreme appreciation of the yen. The Japanese yen has been considered a ‘safe haven’ currency and has seen huge appreciation over the last few months. Call in now for an exchange rate.

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Friday, 7 October 2011

Sterling fell to the lowest level against the US dollar for 14 months yesterday, hitting $1.5270/£1 against the US currency after the Bank of England surprised investors by announcing an additional £75bn of Quantitative Easing to help jump start economic growth. The scale of the additional QE was unexpected and highlighted the precarious state of the UK’s recovery as slowing global growth, tax hikes and spending cuts take effect. The flood of increased monetary supply is clearly negative for sterling, with many now expecting sterling to drop into the $1.40’s against the US dollar. Elsewhere this week, UK growth for the 2nd Quarter of this year was downgraded to a mere %. Out today there is wholesale price inflation, so ensure you protect yourself and speak to one of the team today.

In the euro zone, the euro held onto marginal gains overnight as the European Central Bank announced new lending measures to provide funding for banks well into next year. Whilst many investors were disappointed that the ECB didn’t cut interest rates, stock markets rallied. There is still a large amount of systemic risk in the region and the risk of large exchange rate movements remains. Get in touch for an exchange rate now.

In the USA, the US dollar made gains against sterling as investors sold the pound on the news over further Quantitative Easing. Many analysts are wary of growing friction between the USA and China over China’s currency peg against the US dollar. US lawmakers are set to bring in legislation to tackle what they feel is hugely undervalued Chinese yuan. Out today are non-farm payroll figures which can cause large amounts of volatility so call in now for a live price.

Elsewhere, Australia’s parliament looks set to join the USA in calling for an enquiry into Asian currency manipulation. Echoing the concerns felt in the USA, the Chinese are coming under pressure for keeping the yuan artificially low to ensure Chinese exports remain cheap. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Thursday, 6 October 2011

Sterling slipped against the euro and US dollar yesterday after a mixed day of data left investors uncertain over the UK’s economic outlook ahead of this month’s Bank of England meeting later this morning. Early yesterday morning, final UK growth figures for the 2nd Quarter of 2011 were revised downwards to show a final figure of 0.1% growth. This significantly dampened prospects that the Bank would hold off on implementing a second round of Quantitative Easing. Despite this weak data, PMI sector activity data for the services industry beat expectations and showed growth. Sentiment towards sterling has taken a knock over previous weeks so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out to adverse currency exchange rates.

In the euro zone, European shares rebounded in early trading as news circulated of a pledge by European finance ministers to recapitalise the banking sector. This saw the single currency steady on the hope that this would help ease some of the concerns, after France and Belgium were forced to recapitalise Dexia bank – the first casualty of the sovereign crisis. Yesterday morning also saw investors awaking to the news that Italy had suffered a downgrade on concerns over next year’s funding situation. Call in now for a live exchange rate as the European Central Bank also meets today.

In the USA, mixed data kept the US dollar flat against the euro as figures showed a drop in the level of service orders, but showed an improvement in the ADP non-farm payroll data ahead of the ‘mainstream’ figures that are released on Friday. Markets felt better after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to step in to aid the US economy if necessary. Call in for a live exchange.

Elsewhere, the euro hit the highest level against the Swiss franc for 2 weeks yesterday breaking above 1.23 as investors moved away from the safe haven currency on news over the potential recapitalisation of European banks.

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Wednesday, 5 October 2011

Sterling fell towards the lowest level against the US dollar for over a year yesterday as poor construction data saw investors drop the pound on fears of further Quantitative Easing. Construction activity came in worse than expected, showing the worst figures for 10 months. Any negative data has impacted on sterling as it reinforces the case for a further round of QE. The Bank of England meets on Thursday and could conceivably pump further liquidity into the UK to provide a boost to growth. On a positive note, sterling hit a high of €1.1717/£1 earlier in the day as euro zone leaders failed to quell concerns over the sovereign debt crisis, but fell off as risk aversion reversed later in the day. Call in now to discuss leaving orders to take advantage of volatile rates.

In the euro zone, after a poor initial start to the day, the single currency made large gains against both the US dollar and sterling as US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged that the Fed would support the economy, increasing bets that the US would launch a further round of QE. In addition, European leaders delayed a decision on Greece’s next tranche of bailout funds. The vote was originally planned for yesterday, but has been delayed twice. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments gave a large boost to risk appetite, as he stated that the Fed would be prepared to take strong action to help promote a stronger recovery. It gave markets confidence that the Fed did in fact have further options available, despite already having completed 2 rounds of Quantitative Easing. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc fell against the US dollar and euro, with the US dollar hitting the highest level for 6 months on rumours that the Swiss National Bank would amend the recent currency exchange rate to weaken the franc further. Call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

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Tuesday, 4 October 2011

Sterling fell against the US dollar yesterday, hitting a low of $1.5450/£1 as investors became increasingly convinced that the Bank of England is likely to announce some form of Quantitative Easing in Thursday’s monetary policy committee meeting. UK data surprised the markets, with manufacturing activity showing a marginal expansion against analyst expectations of a contraction in activity over the previous month. Services sector data is released on Wednesday and with the economy struggling, this is expected to be poor. Sterling did however hit the highest level against the euro since March, coming just short of €1.17/£1 as investors became more and more concerned with the debt crisis in the euro zone.

In the euro zone, debt concerns in the region continued to dominate currency market movements, with investors taking a risk adverse stance for the start of the week. The euro fell to the lowest level against the Japanese yen since June 2001 as investors looked to safer haven currencies as European policymakers looked to thrash out a deal to solve the crisis. In addition, monetary policy is back on the agenda, with many expecting the ECB to look to cut interest rates as early as this week. Ensure you call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, manufacturing figures followed the UK in beating expectations and showing an improvement contrasting with a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing. The US dollar hit an 8 ½ month high against the euro on concerns over the debt crisis. Many analysts feel that the euro is set to fall much further against the US dollar, exemplified by the number of bets against the euro. Later this week we have key non-farm payroll figures, so ensure you don’t lose out to adverse movements by speaking to one of the team today.

Elsewhere, as a result of the euro zone crisis and concerns over a cooling of growth in China, the risk sensitive Australian dollar fell to a 10 month low against the US dollar. A slowdown in China will affect demand for Australian commodities and as such, dent Australian prospects. Call in now for a price.

Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Monday, 3 October 2011

Sterling strengthened against the euro on Friday, breaking above €1.16/£1 as the ECB converted several billion euros into sterling for this year’s Single Farm Payment. The euro zone crisis was a key driver of currency exchange last week and as a result of risk averse buying, sterling fell against the US dollar leaving the pound currently trading in the $1.55/£1 range. There is a wide array of data for the UK today including manufacturing activity data (which is expected to show contraction) and also Chancellor George Osborne speaks at the Conservative party conference. Later in the week the Bank of England meets to discuss interest rates. For the first time in a while there is a real chance that we may see further Quantitative Easing to give the economy a boost. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Over the weekend in the euro zone the Greek government approved additional austerity measures for €6.6bn but confirmed that its 2011 deficit target of 7.6% GDP is likely to be missed. In addition, the German government ratified the recent decision on the European Financial Stability Fund. Whilst Greece’s announcement is likely to cause concern in the markets, many feel that Greece will still receive the next tranche of bailout funds in the coming days. Ensure you don’t lose out due to poor exchange rates and speak to one of the traders now.

In the USA, the US dollar had a strong day on Friday as it benefited from safe haven demand – i.e. investors look to the safest currency to avoid losing their money. This risk aversion was driven by concerns over the euro zone, but more so by potentially weak manufacturing data from China. With so many relying on China to drive the global economic recovery, faltering growth and soaring inflation in the country is causing concern. There is US manufacturing figures out later today so call in now for a quote.

Elsewhere, Polish authorities intervened last week in the currency markets after the Polish zloty fell to a 27 month low against the euro. This demonstrates the level to which authorities are concerned over the level of growth. Call in now to discuss your exchange rate strategy.

Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/