Sterling struggles following poor UK retail sales figures | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling rose against most of its major trading partners barring the euro yesterday; finding support in the wake of house prices increasing at the fastest annual rate since 2011 and most markedly against the US dollar as weak economic releases from the world's largest economy have diluted speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale back its asset purchase programme. Bouncing back from disappointing retail sales figures on Wednesday, sterling made advances following a report from mortgage lenders nationwide showed house prices had risen 1.1% from last year. With the housing market slowly gaining momentum and the sporadic recovery in the UK continuing to head in the right direction, sterling has started to gather a little bit of momentum – the question however is whether or not sterling can maintain this strength. With lending data emerging today call in for live markets rates at Smart Currency.

Euro

The euro performed well yesterday, moving upwards across the board and notably against sterling, the Japanese yen and a weaker US dollar. Higher core bond yields and more positive debt news in periphery countries provided support for the seventeen nation currency to rally throughout Thursday though price levels in euro pairs remain very volatile. Higher borrowing costs have materialised in the wake of anticipation of the US Federal Reserve tapering back its quantitative easing strategy, though Italy sold off its maximum amount of debt it had hoped to offer. The euro has seen a mix of data released from Germany with higher than anticipated inflation data marred by much worse than expected unemployment change figures released alongside import data indicating that demand in Europe's largest economy is slowing. Other data released this week included a French consumer confidence survey which detailed another drop in the wake of France's government reforming labour laws introduced in an attempt to stop a concerning rise in unemployment. Retail sales released from Germany today will be watched closely as will French consumer spending data and euro-wide unemployment and inflation data. Be in touch today for expert feedback and live prices with your trader.

US dollar

After a strong start to the week which saw the US dollar perform well with strong consumer confidence and house price figures, it fell in many of its most traded pairs through Wednesday and Thursday after the US Department of Labour reported that the number of people registering for unemployment benefit grew last week by 10,000 rather than dropping by 4,000 as forecast. The US Commerce Department meanwhile revised down first quarter GDP figures to 2.4%, down 0.1% from the preliminary reading as slower inventory building activity and cuts in government spending took their toll. With this, anticipation waned for the first time in some weeks that the Federal Reserve may continue its asset purchasing programme for the near future. However strong consumer spending figures, the highest gain since 2010, revealed that rising real estate valuations and a healthy equity market are still driving the recovery forward, with a forecast that is still positive for the world's largest economy. Inflation and personal spending figures as well as revised consumer sentiment data are released today; call your trader for up-to-the-minute feedback and trading valuations.

Worldwide

Elsewhere the Canadian dollar strengthened after losing ground the last couple of days, hitting a weekly high against a broadly weak US dollar as current account data showed the deficit had decreased more than previously forecast on increasing commodity exports. The Australian dollar also improved, from the lowest level in over nineteen months following positive building approvals data which grew more than estimated; decreasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates. The South African rand however dropped by 2.6% against sterling and moved under the 10 per dollar mark for the first time since 2009 – continuing from losses incurred against most of its peers over the last week. Concern that the American Federal Reserve will cut back its asset purchase programme has negatively affected demand from investors in emerging market currencies; with the rand's downward trajectory already in motion following weaker than expected growth data and comments from the President of South Africa who articulated that the recovery was running behind schedule. Overnight we saw the release of  a Business Confidence report from New Zealand and crucially for the Canadian dollar later on today we will have domestic growth figures. Talk to your trader today for all global market reaction going into the weekend. 

Sterling struggles following poor UK retail sales figures | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had mixed performance in currency market yesterday; weakening against European currencies and the Japanese yen but gained ground against the US dollar. The UK currency rose by around a cent against its stateside counterpart despite a release from the Confederation of British Industry detailing that retail sales had fallen at their fastest rate in 13 months in May. The UK economy continues to struggle with realised retail sales dropping markedly from -1 to -11 points against an expected gain of 4 points. Consumers seem to still be wary of using up expendable income and without public confidence and spending increasing the economy will find it difficult to recover. Call in today to monitor sterling's progress and price levels as markets anticipate the Bank of England's policy meeting next week.

Euro

Euro prices were characteristically volatile throughout yesterday, though the single currency saw strong gains against a weak US dollar – gaining around a cent. This was despite German unemployment figures emerging considerably worse than expected, though this was tempered by inflation figures exceeding expectations – good news for Europe's economic powerhouse after consumer confidence and manufacturing data has been positive for the country over recent weeks. Today is a relatively quiet day for the seventeen-nation currency, with only an Italian 10 year bond auction having any real potential to make an impact directly on price levels. The day is likely to be dominated by events elsewhere as the Eurozone continues to stall in its quest for economic recovery. Call in now to stay up to date with market movements and for a live quote. 

US dollar

The US dollar relinquished much of the ground it had made in the wake of Tuesday's strong Consumer Confidence news as it fell against most major counterparts throughout yesterday's trading. The US currency has risen 4% against the Japanese yen this month, and yesterday investors felt prompted to cash in on their profits; selling dollar for yen as a safe haven from weakness in equity markets and pressuring dollar value into a downward trajectory against most major currencies. The discussion over how soon the Federal Reserve will taper back their asset purchase programme however will be the key driver for dollar prices this week. Unemployment Claims reports from the US will be important tomorrow with its potential influence over monetary policy, along with preliminary growth figures for the US economy and Pending Home Sales data. With today carrying significant weight for economic news emanating from the US, call immediately for your trader's feedback on how the markets could react.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was a notably strong performer over yesterday's trading; rising against all of its major currency partners alongside a statement from the Governor of the Bank of Japan declaring that a stable financial grounding is vital for the country as the central bank pumps an unprecedented amount of stimulus into the economy. The government appears to be ready to do whatever it takes to get back on the road to growth, and yesterday investors flocked to the currency as refuge from a dip in equity markets and the US dollar being sold off. Elsewhere, the South African rand crumbled to four-year lows on speculation of US stimulus measures being reduced in the near future. The country's economy continues to suffer with worker protests and unrest at a local level causing a prolonged slump in the South African economy. Call in and speak to Smart today for the latest news and price levels in your currency pair.

The US dollar continues to strengthen | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling held its own after the bank holiday apart from against a well-performing US dollar yesterday afternoon. Though the UK currency fell against its American counterpart following strong US consumer confidence data, sterling steadily extended it's rebound from last week against most of it's major peers as expectation increases that the Bank of England will gradually move away from it's quantitative easing cycle. As reports throughout the week are forecast to describe a further extension of credit for the private sector as well as rising house prices, sterling could be supported approaching the Bank of England's interest rate decision in just over a week. If more central bank officials move towards supporting a reduction in Britain's asset-purchasing programme, the recently fragile currency has the potential to outperform in this quarter. With Confederation of British Industry sales data emerging today as well as word from one of the members of the Monetary Policy Committee, stay in touch to monitor progress throughout the week.

Euro

German import data held back the euro yesterday as figures indicated that demand in Europe's largest economy is slowing, whilst a French consumer confidence survey detailed another drop in the wake of France's government reforming labour laws earlier in the month in an attempt to stop a concerning rise in unemployment. Mixed policy signals also continue to emerge from Europe, with one central bank member yesterday speaking out that interest rates could be cut further if needed whilst others are concerned of the impact negative interest rates could have on periphery economies. Youth unemployment still remains a major issue, and the single currency may struggle to hold it's ground before the European Central Bank decision on interest rates on June the 6th. As the ECB presses on into uncharted territory and governments within the union continue to rely heavily on monetary policy, call in to Smart today for price movements and market reactions.

US dollar

The US dollar rose to session highs against both the euro and Japanese yen whilst strengthening against all it's major trading partners including sterling as the latest consumer confidence survey and house price release yesterday afternoon exceeded expectations - rising to a five year high for May as sentiment was boosted by a better business outlook and job opportunities. The consumer confidence index climbed to 76.2; the highest since early 2008, whilst house prices are at their highest level in seven years giving consumers more confidence to spend. The news has added fuel to speculation the Federal Reserve may taper back it's quantitative easing programme in the near future as the world's largest economy posts more positive data reports. With more movement expected on Thursday as GDP data will be released alongside US jobless claims figures (and unemployment being mentioned as a key factor in Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions), stay on top of developments by talking to your trader now.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the South African rand fell to fresh four-year low against the US dollar; as economic growth data from Africa's largest economy manifested itself in significantly worse shape than expected yesterday, and puts increased pressure on the central bank to loosen monetary policy toward a more assertive quantitative easing programme. Another currency weakening across the board was the Japanese yen as global equity markets rallied using cheaper borrowing from the country. A Bank of Japan member released a statement yesterday that it would be essential to keep both long and short term interest rates stable amidst perhaps one of the most intense monetary easing programmes in any economy currently. With more aggressive easing on the horizon markets are positioned for further yen weakness going forward, especially against it's US counterpart. Tomorrow sees Mark Carney address a Canadian dollar that struggled yesterday with his final decision on interest rates. Don't hesitate to call us for market reactions and feedback from your trader regarding your currency pair.

Will sterling continue its downward trend? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had a more positive day on Friday, recovering a little of the ground lost earlier in the week and indeed some analysts are starting to suggest the Bank of England may be looking to slowly move away from their easing cycle, which could help sterling retrace it's decline from earlier this year. Fresh evidence emerged on Friday that the UK housing market recovery is underway with mortgage approvals rising by 2.4% through April, though this remains below the levels seen before 2008. The report said that the government's Funding for Lending scheme continues to support the market – particularly for first time buyers. This coming week will be relatively quiet for significant UK economic releases; with only data showing the net lending to individual and realised sales figures expected to be released alongside comments from several members of the Bank of England. Perhaps no news will be good news and sterling can bounce back from recent lows as speculation increases as to tighter monetary policy. Contact your trader to find out whether sterling can find momentum.

Euro

The euro found strength before the bank holiday after an industry report revealed that German business confidence increased beyond expectations though May – increasing optimism for the region's recovery prospects after German and French manufacturing data emerged more positive than expected last week. News from Germany will be dictating the currencies performance once again this week with preliminary inflation figures and unemployment change data due on Wednesday. Spanish and Italian benchmark ten-year bond auctions will be a gauge of investor confidence in weaker economic zones whilst German and French retail sales and consumer spending reports are published on Friday. Other notables releases this week includes Eurozone wide inflation data as well as figures showing the overall level of unemployment across the Eurozone - currently expected to have increased to 12.2%. Stay on top of how the euro is performing by calling your trader now.

US dollar

The US dollar found further strength before the bank holiday following news that durable goods orders increased more than forecast as the world's largest economy continues on the road to recovery. The US dollar could well continue it's strong performance into this week and beyond as speculation increases about the potential for the Federal Reserve to taper off their quantitative easing programme. Historically, an improving labour market was the catalyst for the central bank ending programme of monetary easing and with positive jobless claims data having emerged last Wednesday many believe the Federal Reserve will start to think about slowing the pace of asset purchasing in the near future. On the data front this week, Tuesday sees the release of monthly consumer confidence data which will give an insight into how the US retail sector is recovering. We are likely to see a degree of volatility on Thursday in response to a host of data being released including the change in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits,  pending home sales figures and preliminary quarterly GDP data which is currently expected to show that the worlds largest economy grew by 2.5%. Call in now for a live rate with Smart and to keep up to date as the week progresses.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar struggled before the weekend – notably against it's US counterpart after speculation increased that the Federal Reserve could taper back monetary stimulus this year. Canada's biggest export crude oil declined in price and as commodity values continue to fall the Canadian currency is expected to underperform. Wednesday's Bank of Canada interest rate decision will be crucial to the Canadian dollars strength this week, at present no change is anticipated; however, the statement that follows should give clues for monetary policy decisions going forwards and could well set the tone for Canadian dollar prices going into the summer. Alongside the monetary policy decision, we also have a raft of data released from Canada including inflation data, current account figures and GDP data which is currently expected to show the economy only grew by 0.1%. The decline in commodity prices has also hit the Australian dollar, which along with recent evidence of the Chinese economy slowing has fallen throughout May. This Thursday, Australian Building Approvals figures will be significant as well as Private Capital Expenditure data which should provide early signals of future hiring, spending and earning activity. Other data released this week includes business confidence figures from New Zealand, manufacturing data from China and a raft of data from Japan including a speech from the Governor of the Bank of Japan which will be watched extremely closely given the recent movements in the Japanese yen. Call in now for a live price and for a market update.

Sterling has a tough week | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling has had a tough week, having dropped sharply against both the euro and US dollar since Monday, falling by nearly two cents at their lowest point. Yesterday however further slides were averted; bouncing back from the lower than anticipated inflation data and disappointing retail sales figures released on Monday and Tuesday respectively as the updated release of the GDP figures for the first quarter confirmed the economy had expanded at 0.3%. Home asking prices rose for a fifth consecutive month this week which also helped sterling. Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes revealed Mervyn King had been outvoted again on the issue of increasing quantitative easing, though in light of lower inflation contributing to sterling weakness many expect incoming Governor Mark Carney to have more leeway to expand the asset purchase programme. Be in touch with your trader today for the latest information going into the bank holiday.

Euro

With bank holidays in Germany, France, and the Netherlands at the start of the week it has been a relatively quiet period for economic news emanating from Europe. The single currency held fairly steady against its major trading partners though as the region still struggles with economic and political instability weakness especially against the safe haven currencies is still expected in the longer term. The European Union Economic Summit in Brussels had mixed impacts on the markets, with monetary policy being highest on the agenda and ministers have been putting continuing pressure on the central bank to further support stimulus programmes. French and German monthly manufacturing and services data yesterday, although still showing overall contraction, came in slightly better than the previous month bolstering the euro towards the end of the week. Today sees the release of German Business Climate figures with the health of Europe's economic heart pivotal in dictating currency strength across the seventeen nations. Call your trader now for developments going into the weekend.

US dollar

The US dollar has remained broadly strong this week against all it's major trading partners. The Federal Reserve Chairman spoke out midweek and encouraged speculation that the central bank would be prepared to taper back it's asset purchase programme going forward if it can be confident the economic recovery can be fully sustained. His focus however was on the difficulties posed by government spending cuts and especially unemployment, whereby tightening monetary policy too early would jeopardise the recovery. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting corroborated that sentiment, though jobless claims data released yesterday came out more positively than expected which is likely to fuel expectation that quantitative easing activity could be scaled down in the near future. Today sees the release of figures on durable goods orders. Analysts expect strong performance in data releases over the coming weeks to maintain dollar momentum. Call in today for reactions, news and price levels with Smart.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the beginning of the week looked better for the antipodean currencies with the Australian Dollar rising for the first time in 3 days against the US Dollar, whilst the New Zealand dollar rose against all of its major currency partners on the back of good home purchase data. The New Zealand finance minister the suggested that the central bank may look at raising interest rates which caused the New Zealand dollar to gain against the majority of its peers. The Japanese yen had a turbulent week following comments from Japan’s Economic Minister who said that further losses to the currency’s value would start to have negative effects on the Japanese economy whilst stating that the currency had fallen far enough. The yen carried on weakening however after the Bank of Japan affirmed a plan to double it's monetary base over a two year period. Yesterday however, the Japanese yen snapped this trend and surged against all of its major trading partners whilst the Japanese stock market tumbled over 7% over 24 hours as investors started to panic about the state of the global economy. The Canadian Dollar had little joy following disappointing retail sales data for the month of March raising speculation that the central bank will move to reconsider its plan to raise interest rates. In other news the South African Rand tumbled heavily on news that interest rates would remain at 5% for the foreseeable future. Call your trader today for news and price levels in your currency pair.

Sterling stumbles and starts to fall | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling tumbled on Wednesday in most of its major pairings - reaching seven week lows against the US dollar - stemming from poor retail sales data released yesterday morning and following the lower inflation levels from Tuesday. The UK currency struggled across the board despite making up some ground against the euro late on after retail sales dropped 1.3% due to a wet and cold winter; confounding expectations for a flat reading. Although the Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes revealed that the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King was outvoted 3-6 again against expanding quantitative easing, speculation that incoming Governor Mark Carney will expand the asset purchase programme over coming months in light of lower inflation has contributed to sterling's weakness. This could be the start of another period of market negativity towards the UK currency, though Business Investment data and importantly GDP figures released today will be helpful if growth stays in line with expectations. Call in today for the latest market reaction to UK developments from this morning onwards.

Euro

The euro had a mixed day yesterday, with characteristically volatile price movement despite little data being released. Reaction to disappointing retail figures in Britain drove euro to a four-week high against sterling, though the seventeen-nation currency fell by over a cent against the US dollar in the afternoon following news from the Federal Reserve. European Union ministers continue to promote that unemployment and sluggish growth will be combated as a matter of urgency so the central bank will be under pressure to further support monetary union in touch economic and political times for the region. This morning sees the release of manufacturing and services PMI figures from the French and German core of the Eurozone where economists forecast a slight improvement on the previous month's data, though this is unlikely to be enough to inspire confidence regarding wider economic health from the heart of the Eurozone. Get in touch for the latest rates and on-going news today.

US dollar

The US dollar accentuated it's strength against most major counterparts yesterday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke out Wednesday afternoon about tapering back it's quantitative easing programme over the coming months if the central bank can be confident of sustained economic recovery. Nonetheless, he stressed that the US economy is still weighed down by cuts in government spending and high unemployment, whereby a premature tightening of monetary policy would put the recovery at risk and force inflation downwards. Unemployment was highlighted as a costly issue as the country continues to deploy an aggressive bond-buying programme to boost growth. Along with New Home Sales figures, Unemployment claims data from the US will emerge this afternoon, which will likely have some sway over dollar value with Bernanke highlighting the job market as being key to monetary policy going forward. Call your trader now for up to the minute prices with Smart.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar's poor start to the week continued into yesterday, falling against the majority of its main trading partners, and to a two-month low against its US counterpart as crude oil prices maintained a downward trend. Canadian retail sales were also shown to have stagnated in March, raising expectation the central bank will reconsider its plan to raise interest rates. The Japanese yen also lost ground against the US dollar as well as the euro after the Bank of Japan affirmed a plan to double it's monetary base over a two year period. Their monetary policy meeting ended with little change in policy, though uncertainty will still surround the yen as to whether it's value has dropped far enough. The Bank of Japan Governor speaks this evening and his comments should shed some light on his attitude towards what has over recent months been a particularly assertive monetary policy going forward. Call your trader today for news and price levels in your currency pair.

Sterling suffers as inflation falls | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling dropped on almost all fronts yesterday, falling to a seven-week low against the US dollar as markets reacted to inflation rates coming in lower than expected at 2.4% for April, down from 2.8% in March: the first fall since 2012. The figures showed that lower fuel prices outweighed a rise in grocery costs as the cold and wet winter hit crop production. The data gives the Bank of England and incoming Governor Mark Carney more leeway to stimulate economic growth by expanding the UK's asset purchasing programme and so caused a significant reaction in the market. The government has signalled it would be more relaxed about the bank loosening it's hold on inflation in favour of acting to stimulate the economy, though Tuesday's news has reinforced investor's decisions to sell sterling before tomorrow's crucial release of minutes from the latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The report will reveal how many policy makers voted to expand asset purchases to boost growth as it aims to encourage a stronger recovery, though a change in support to that effect is likely to instil further sterling weakness. Be in touch with your trader throughout today for rates and feedback.

Euro

It was mixed day for the euro yesterday as it experienced further volatility amidst the on-going uncertainty regarding central bank policy in the UK, the US and in Europe. The single currency performed well against a struggling sterling throughout the day, but expectations are low for today's EU economic summit as many fear that despite increasing pressure to take action to reverse widespread economic contraction many expect the group to attempt to buy more time as they become increasingly reliant on monetary stimulus. More influential data is expected later on in the week in the form of French and German manufacturing and services figures which follow last week's disappointing growth report, whilst on Thursday the European Central Bank President delivers his speech which should give clues to monetary policy going forwards. With further volatility in euro markets likely this week, call in now for live rates and response on developments from Smart.

US dollar

Tuesday's trading saw the US dollar resume it's advance against most of it's major counterparts as markets await the Federal Open Market Committee's latest meeting minutes this evening. Having lost ground on Monday the currency made gains in most pairings, though markets have been cautious before today's pending events. The Federal Reserve will be thrown into focus if the meeting minutes show a growing willingness to alter it's current stance on quantitative easing involving a monthly 85 billion dollars in asset purchases. Speculation from last week has been circulating that the Federal Reserve could start to wind down it's easing programme as early as this summer and any movements towards this are likely to boost dollar prices going forward. We will have a better idea by the end of today when the FOMC minutes emerge and the Federal Reserve chairman testifies in congress. Call your trader now for market reactions coming up to this evening.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar fell against the majority of its main trading partners, dropping to a two-month low against the US dollar, as data showed crude oil, Canada's biggest export, broke the four-day rally it had achieved in spite of commodity prices falling almost ecumenically. Tuesday was also a poor day for the Swiss franc with it losing ground to the euro amid rumours that the Swiss National Bank could implement negative interest rates on banks' excess deposits. The Australian dollar carried it's momentum from Monday; rebounding from its worst period against the US dollar in more than a year whilst New Zealand dollars also saw strength building on their biggest advance in eight months. Overnight we saw the Bank of Japan deliver it's statement on monetary policy and later on today the Swiss National Bank Chairman speaks along with the release of monthly Canadian retail sales data. Be in touch today for up to the minute rates on your currency trades.

House prices support sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling gained ground yesterday morning against most of it's major peers including the euro and US dollar after an industry report showed home asking prices to have risen for a fifth consecutive month. The data from Smart Currency partners Rightmove Plc  described house prices rising by 2.1%, pushing values to record highs and bringing sterling up from it's lowest level in six weeks against the US currency. A slew of economic data is scheduled for release this week that should prove influential for the UK and sterling’s performance including the publication of key inflation data released today in the form of producer and consumer price indices. Later on this week, traders will pay close attention to the Bank of England latest policy meeting minutes, retail sales figures and revised growth data. Talk to your trader for the latest prices as things unfold.

Euro

It was a quiet start to the week for the euro, holding steady against the majority of its trading partners in the absence of much data being released due to the bank holidays being enjoyed in Germany, France and Holland. The euro remains weak as periphery countries are struggling to return to growth, and officials are struggling to meet on common ground with policy as recessionary stress continues. Prices are likely to be volatile as the European Central Bank comes under pressure to expand on it's easing cycle. German Producer Price Index inflation data is released this morning, though most will be looking to French and German manufacturing and services data emerging on Thursday to give an indication of economic health and may well have more of an impact on euro rates. Speak to your dedicated trader for feedback and up to the minute market prices.

US dollar

The US dollar lost ground almost across the board yesterday in what is being seen as a natural unwinding from the gains seen over the past two weeks. US dollar weakness against a firmer Japanese yen has weighed on demand for the US currency in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes released on Wednesday evening. A growing number of central bank officials are talking down speculation of additional monetary stimulus due to strong domestic confidence and a relatively healthily performing economy, which is why Wednesday evenings release is so pivotal to US dollar strength going forwards. A member of the FOMC is speaking this afternoon following comments from the Treasury Secretary, though the market will be poised for the President of the FOMC’s speech to Congress tomorrow in conjunction with Home Sales data and minutes from the central bank’s latest meeting. Call in for the latest rates and feedback from your trader.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen performed well yesterday; strengthening by the largest margin in three weeks against the US dollar following comments from Japan’s Economic Minister who said that further losses to the currency’s value would start to have negative effects on the Japanese economy whilst stating that the currency had fallen far enough. The Australian dollar meanwhile rose against the US dollar for the first time in three days, whilst the New Zealand dollar enjoyed gains against all it's major trading peers after the country's finance minister said that with house prices on the rise, the central bank may be forced to raise interest rates. Get in touch for the latest rates.

US dollar strengthens, UK awaits BoE minutes | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling struggled to hold it's ground before the weekend, most notably against a strong US dollar, though with the Bank of England looking less likely to increase the level of quantitative easing for now, this decline could be short lived. Indeed one of the members of the Bank of England committee spoke on Friday about the risks inherent in increasing the asset purchase facility beyond its current target level without risking higher inflation. UK Consumer Price Index inflation data is released on Tuesday, the Bank of England meeting minutes are released the following morning and significant growth and retail sales figures on Thursday. Sterling remains vulnerable to poor data emanating from the economy but could find strength if growth and inflation remains in line with expectations set over the last week. Be in touch over the coming days with your trader for reactions and live prices.

Euro

The euro had a volatile day against sterling and weakened significantly against a particularly strong US dollar as indications the European Central Bank will continue to activate it's easing programme over coming months continued. Meanwhile, a Governing Council member warned some regions in the eurozone may face a 'decade of adjustment' as the area struggles to get back on the path to growth. Looking ahead to this week, it will be a quiet day for data in Europe today as much of Europe enjoys a bank holiday in observance of Whit Monday. The EU economic summit on Wednesday may have an effect on euro strength as traders continue to look for hints regarding future ECB interest rates and on-going monetary policy plans. Monthly manufacturing data from France and Germany released on Thursday are scheduled to describe continued industry contraction, whilst German business climate data released on Friday may prove influential. Call in now for a live rate and further euro information over the course of the week.

US dollar

The US dollar continued to strengthen throughout Friday as much better than expected consumer sentiment figures were released alongside continued speculation regarding the Federal Reserve moving closer to ending it's asset purchasing programme. The US economy continues to show some signs of a sustained recovery and ahead of this week's release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting, the central bank may be prompted to taper off it's quantitative easing activity. A winding down of the central bank's monthly asset purchasing activity could happen as soon as this summer according to the President of the Federal Bank of San Francisco. Wednesday will be significant as Federal Reserve Chairman testifies before the Federal Open Market Committee's and the latest meeting minutes are released, whilst unemployment claims data and home sales figures follow on Thursday. Be in touch throughout the week for whether the US dollar can maintain it's upward momentum.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the end of the week saw the Australian dollar continue to fall, showing no signs of recovery into Friday evening. The Canadian dollar also struggled after worse than expected inflation data was released. This week there are a few pieces of data to keep an eye on including annual budget data will come out of Australia and New Zealand and we will also see Canadian monthly manufacturing and inflation data. Furthermore, there is a raft of data out of Japan including the central banks monetary policy decision alongside statements from the Governor of the Bank of Japan. Get in touch for the latest rates.

Mixed week for sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling started the week slowly with performance negatively affected by a buoyant US dollar and a UK trade report showing the country's current account position to have continued to deteriorate. By midweek however, the UK currency climbed for the first time in four days as the Governor of the Bank of England's last inflation report providing an upgraded forecast for the UK economy; indicating that growth could accelerate to 0.5% this quarter. More positivity came as unemployment claims were shown to have fallen, whilst yesterday more forecasts emerged suggesting that the economy will continue to grow at a faster rate coming into the summer than in the first quarter. With reasonable performance against the US dollar and euro going into the weekend, be in touch with your trader to see if sterling can maintain it's upward momentum despite David Cameron struggling with support from his backbenchers in parliament.

Euro

The euro has struggled to hold its own this week, falling consistently against its major peers as its economy was shown to still be in recession, with production falling for the sixth consecutive quarter. While Germany grew by the smallest of margins at a disappointingly slow rate, France declared that it had fallen back into recession with output falling by 0.2%. Yesterday, the EU's statistics office revealed that the region's annual inflation rate declined to 1.2% in April; the lowest rate since early 2010 – leaving open the question of whether Central Bank President Mario Draghi will ease policy again after officials cut their benchmark interest rate to record lows. With little data released today from the Eurozone, call your trader today to get an update on euro price levels going into the weekend.

US dollar

The US dollar fell from close to four-year highs against the Japanese yen and weakened against most of it's major counterparts yesterday following disappointing unemployment claims data, a contraction in New York state's manufacturing sector as well as weaker than forecast reports on housing and inflation. This tapered off what has been a particularly strong week for the currency which rose in the wake of good retail sales figures on Monday and expectations the Federal Reserve might scale back their asset purchasing activity, though this now may have proved to be presumptuous as dollar prices weakened following yesterday’s developments, leading many to the conclusion that the Federal Reserve will continue with it's bond purchasing monetary easing programme for the time being. Watch out for consumer sentiment figures emerging today, though next Wednesday's slew of reports will be most significant with results from the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting. Be in touch for prices and reactions as they happen.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar had an extremely poor week, struggling on the back of the annual budget release and weak data coming from China resulting in the Australian dollar hitting fresh eleven-month lows against the US dollar  - fuelling rumours the Reserve Bank of Australia would continue to cut interest rates to further support the economy. The Japanese yen continued to struggle this week; falling to five year lows beyond the 102.00 level against the US dollar as the G7 meetings confirmed expectation of further consolidation for the Japanese yen following the government's ground-breaking monetary policy programme. Some of these losses were then reversed following better than expected growth figures from Japan being released. The end of the week's focus will be on the Canadian Dollar which has variable week based on weak internal data and figures released from the US. Friday sees core inflation data released along with retail figures coming from Canada: be in touch going into the weekend to keep up to date with world developments and currency price levels in your pairings.

Sterling under pressure against the US dollar | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Yesterday sterling climbed for the first time in four days against the euro and capped it's downward trajectory against the US dollar following the Bank of England's upgraded forecast for the UK economy in it’s quarterly Inflation Report. Sterling rose against the majority of its major trading partners as the incumbent Governor stated that a sustained recovery was on the horizon as he presented his last evaluation of the UK economy before Mark Carney takes over his post, indicating growth may accelerate to 0.5% this quarter. Advances for the UK currency were also helped by a report describing jobless claims in Britain to have fallen through April whilst the level of unemployment decreased. With a recent spate of good news, many hope the worst of the recession has passed, though growth is still some way off the level of five years ago. There is little in the way of influential data being released from the UK today so performance is likely to be dictated by events from elsewhere. Call in now for live rates and updated information.

Euro

The euro slid to fresh monthly lows yesterday as first quarter growth figures revealed a larger contraction than expected across the region. Economic output shrank for a sixth-straight quarter at a rate of over 0.2% whereby the prolonged recession is likely to continue to weigh heavily on the euro as speculation regarding the potential emergence of additional monetary support intensifies. A disappointingly minor recovery in Germany at 0.1% failed to offset negative growth figures in France and Italy; highlighting how European policy makers are struggling to turn improved financial market conditions into renewed business activity. The euro has still appreciated in many of it's major pairings over the last few months, but appears condemned to economic stagnation in the near future. The European Central Bank cut it's benchmark interest rate to record lows this month whilst the President of the ECB has clearly stated the bank is ready to act again if needed. Be in touch to monitor how Trade Balance and CPI inflation figures today impact the euro's fortunes.

US dollar

The US dollar traded broadly higher on Wednesday as the market's recent upward momentum persisted and offset some variable economic data. Activity in New York state's manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted whilst US Industrial Production figures dropped by 0.5% in April. Nonetheless, consumer confidence, earnings and the Federal Reserve have been holding dollar values up and prices in most pairs continued their upward trend. US wholesale price levels meanwhile dropped through April in the wake of falling petrol prices; the biggest decline in over three years. Improving sentiment toward the US economy is fuelling speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce stimulus measures, though many believe it is exactly these measures that have been the backbone of dollar success over recent days. Today will be significant as CPI inflation data and reports on Manufacturing and Building Permits emerge: talk to your trader now to gauge market reactions and price levels.

Worldwide

Yesterday saw the Australian dollar continue a poor run of form this week; falling to fresh lows after eight consecutive days of decline against the US dollar. This latest slide was a response to the news that the premiums the nation's bonds offer have shrunk over the past year and although we saw a momentary climb mid-afternoon, the Aussie continued to weaken into the evening. Yesterday afternoon saw the Canadian dollar stage a recovery from a near 3-week low against its US counterpart following poor industrial production data being released in the US, and in spite of poor manufacturing data released in Canada. The Polish Zloty had a weak day yesterday, falling to a 5-week low against a poorly performing euro as inflation decelerated to the slowest rate in seven years; sparking rumours that the central bank will cut interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Last night we saw important Japanese growth and industrial production figures released, and this evening the machine orders data will be released – a good indicator of upcoming industrial output. Get in touch for the latest rates today.

US dollar in the ascendancy | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling struggled on Tuesday - falling to a two week low against the euro and continue to tumble against the US dollar for the fourth consecutive day. This was on the back of speculation that investors have cut their holdings in the currency leading up to the Bank of England's quarterly update on inflation forecast (it will be current Governor Mervyn King's last.) This slip was despite UK house prices being shown to have climbed to the highest level in 3 years. Meanwhile, Prime Minister David Cameron impending intention to authorise a referendum for UK's continued membership in the European Union caused further weakness to sterling as questions surrounding long-term political stability were thrown into focus. Today we will see data evaluating the change in unemployment claimants and significantly the Bank of England's inflation report. Speak to your trader now for prices and feedback on sterling activity.

Euro

The euro performed poorly yesterday in response to German Economic Sentiment data coming out worse than forecast amidst the backdrop of political unrest emanating from the Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting. The single currency dipped in most pairings after the report from Germany was released as it is seen as a key barometer for the health of Europe's largest economy. Uncertainty continues to reign in the Eurozone; weighing on the currency as the EU continues to struggle with a resolution for the monetary union. There is a still talk that the ECB may implement negative interest rates in the near future and increase quantitative easing, whereby speculation surrounding these possibilities is likely to amplify any poor data coming out of the region in the coming days and weeks. Today's flash GDP data is likely to have a short-term impact and help to determine whether the euro will continue to forfeit some of the ground that it has recouped in the past month. Call in now for upcoming information and live rates.

US dollar

The US dollar continued its impressive start to the week yesterday; maintaining momentum over the majority of it's major trading partners in the wake of better than expected retail sales figures having been released at the start of the week. It was also the fifth successive day of gains against the Japanese yen - the longest streak since November. The data added fuel to rumours that the Fed will slow the pace of bond purchases under its quantitative easing stimulus strategy; tapering off as the nation's economic prospects continue to improve. Import price data for April also contributed to dollar strength, coming in lower than expected, which should reign in inflation levels for the second quarter of the year. Today sees the monthly industrial production and direct foreign investment rates published. The most significant news, however, will be the monthly Purchase Manager's Index inflation report surfacing around lunchtime. Be in touch with Smart and your dedicated trader for the latest rates as the markets react.

Worldwide

The Australia's dollar continued to fall yesterday, reaching fresh eleven-month lows against the US dollar following the annual budget release. The government revealed a forecast for slower than anticipated growth – adding to speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates further to support the economy. The currency has had a torrid month; losing four cents in two weeks against the US dollar as the central bank's rate cut last week surprised markets and falling further due to the revelations yesterday morning of a record deficit. Despite some decent retail sales data released early on Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar followed their Australian counterpart on a downward trend whilst the Canadian dollar fell to it's lowest point in two weeks against the US dollar as it continued to adjust from a run of particularly strong performance in recent months. Today’s main release will be the Manufacturing Sales data from Canada, so be in touch now for how the latest prices and developments.

Good US data undermines sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had a steady day through much of yesterday before losing ground rapidly towards the end of the day on the release of better than expected US retail sales data. Sterling fell to a two week low against the US dollar. Sterling’s weakness came in spite of the Confederation of British Industry releasing a statement confirming economic sentiment in the UK had improved - adding to hope that growth is expected to pick up over the next two years. As the Bank of England refrained last week from boosting their asset-purchasing programme and with CPI inflation figures also released midweek expected to be relatively constant, sterling could well stabilise but call in now for feedback from your trader on whether it can resist pressure from across the Atlantic.

Euro

The euro largely proceeded on an even keel yesterday as Eurogroup meetings took place and the Greek Prime Minister declared that Greece would not require any further bailouts as the economy in his country looks to be steadying. The single currency performed staunchly in most of it's major pairings save for a US dollar that has been enjoying significant gains across the board on the back of strong retail figures. Europe's governments are in the middle of a policy rethink following years of tight budgets as the recession in the region deepens and the G7 meetings signalled its intentions to scale back austerity. Focus now will be on important economic sentiment data today whilst the release of growth figures midweek are expected to highlight the gloomy economic situation. Call in now to see how emerging political decisions affect euro trading levels.

US dollar

The US dollar enjoyed a strong day on the currency markets yesterday following better than expected monthly retail sales data from the world's largest economy – making gains against most of it's major counterparts. This followed on from reports that Federal Reserve officials had sorted out a strategy to wind down the US bond-buying programme. This is in an effort to preserve flexibility and manage highly unpredictable market expectations, where the first steps in scaling back could be in the next few months depending on emerging data. Today sees the release of monthly import price figures, whilst later in the week inflation indices as well as unemployment claims and consumer confidence reports are published. Call in now for up to date information on whether the dollar continues it's momentum.

Worldwide

Yesterday we saw the Australian dollar slide to an 11-month low against the US dollar, whilst falling against the majority of it's major trading peers in response to low business confidence amid rumours that their Reserve Bank will cut interest rates further. The Yen continued to weaken over the weekend and through yesterday; falling to five year lows beyond the 102.00 level against the US dollar as the G7 meetings confirmed expectation of further consolidation for the Japanese yen following the government's ground-breaking monetary policy programme. The Canadian dollar had a strong day yesterday as better-than-expected sales data in the US had an immediate impact on Canadian markets, with the currency performing well against most if it's major currency pairs. Much focus will be on the Australian annual budget figures emerging mid-morning today as Australian dollar price levels continue to be susceptible to unfavourable data releases. Speak to your trader now for current prices and reaction from world markets.

US dollar strengthens, sterling loses ground | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Friday saw sterling weaken against a lot of its major counterparts and particularly against the US dollar as a UK trade report showed the country's current account position has continued to deteriorate – counteracting the spate of good economic news following positive growth figures two weeks ago. Sterling slipped from around 1.56 against the US dollar on Thursday night to monthly lows of almost 1.53 by the close of the week: highlighting the UK's anaemic fiscal position. Sterlings weakness may be short lived should the Bank of England report an improved outlook for the country as the central bank Governor speaks on Wednesday following the release of important unemployment and inflation figures. All focus will be on these releases midweek, so be in touch to monitor sterlings progress.

Euro

The euro had mixed fortunes of Friday, making mild gains against most of its counterparts but it did however weaken against the US dollar. Over the weekend, policymakers in Europe suggested they are willing to to scale back austerity in an attempt to help kick start their ailing economies amidst high uncertainty lingering around the region. Unemployment remains rife and the European Central Bank is likely to come under pressure to continue it's easing cycle for the near future. Eurogroup meetings continue today in the wake of the G-7 meeting alongside industrial production and German economic sentiment data. With Germany starting to feel sustained pressure from it's economic responsibility in the eurozone, the release should have significant implications for price levels this week, so call in now for the latest updates and developments.

US dollar

The US dollar continued to perform well on Friday strengthening against all of its major counterparts. In his speech, the Chairman of the Federal Bank acknowledged that the US economy was still suffering from the financial crisis, but cooled speculation that another crisis could ever occur as he outlined that the central bank now oversees a much wide range of financial institutions. It is a busy week on the data front in the US with key releases including retail sales, inflation data, building permits and consumer sentiment. With so much data being released the potential for volatility remains high, so call in now for the latest news and an up to date quote.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the main news was the continued decline of the Japanese yen where it weakened against the US dollar breaking through the 101 level for the first time in four years following comments by the Governor of the Bank of Japan who said the the central banks monetary policy is not aimed at manipulating the relative value of the yen. Furthermore, at the G-7 meetings over the weekend the finance ministers suggested they would tolerate the recent decline for the time being but would continue to monitor its effect closely. The Australian dollar also suffered on Friday after the Reserve Bank of Australia suggested that growth would be sluggish leading to some economists forecasting further rate cuts. This weeks releases includes retail sales from New Zealand, the annual Budget Release from Australia and manufacturing data from Canada. Call in now for a live quote and to speak to your trader.

Sterling steady - how long will it last? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling has been trading in a narrow range against the euro and the US dollar since the start of the month but it has been moving rapidly between the two extremes as new data pushes market sentiment one way and then the other. Yesterday the release of UK industrial production showed that in March UK manufacturing had grown and at a faster rate than predicted. On the same day the Bank of England confirmed that it had decided for the tenth month in a row not to extend its quantitative easing measures or change interest rates - this was very much as expected. Alongside this, the British economy expanded at a 0.8 per cent in the three months to the end of April according to estimates by think-tank NIESR; well ahead of the previous reading of 0.3 per cent. However the base for this is growth is the weak level of output in January which has inflated the quarterly rate of growth in both the production sector and the broader economy in the three months to April 2013 as NIESR added that underlying growth is therefore weaker than the headline suggests. Sterling started the week poorly before bouncing back and rising at its fastest rate in two months against the US dollar before losing ground late yesterday. Attention now turns to today's import and export data and the G7 meetings. Call in now to see how these can affect your currency requirements.

Euro

Following a two-day bank holiday in Germany and France it has been a quiet week for the single currency. The euro started off poorly this week as it slipped across its major pairings after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stated the ECB is closely watching incoming data and is prepared to take further action if required to address imbedded economic weakness. Gains were made however throughout the latter half of the week following strong industrial production from Germany and Portugal and a ECB board member stating that the risk of break-up of the single currency is behind us. This contrasts with yesterday's ECB’s monthly survey report which warns of a deepening recession in the monetary union and whose economists expressed that the ECB will refrain from cutting its interest rate again until 2015. Today we have little news released apart from the G7 meetings commencing. Talk to your dedicated trader for views on upcoming news and the latest prices.

US dollar

The US dollar surged around lunchtime yesterday as news hit the markets that the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped to a five-year low. This corroborated strong US unemployment data last week and was seen as a signal the labour market is strengthening for the long term. Gains were seen across the board against its major pairings, especially against the euro and Japanese yen as applications for unemployment insurance payments decreased to the lowest level since early 2008. Along with the release of the Federal Budget Balance,  the Federal Reserve Chairman speaks today and may shed some light on what he anticipates for the US quantitative easing stimulus programme going forward. US dollars regained lost ground yesterday as indicators that the world's largest economy is on the road to recovery. Call in now for the latest developments before the weekend.

Worldwide

The Japanese yen continued to weaken passing through the psychological level of 100 against the US dollar. This will be a boost to Japanese exports and help increase inflation as imports become more expensive. The Australian and New Zealand dollars climbed on Thursday against most of their traded peers following news from both nations that unemployment rates had fallen. This reversed a weakening trend but proved to be short term as the downward trajectory continued following the release of the better than expected US employment data. Canadian dollars meanwhile were on course for a full week of gains over its US counterpart before data released described slowing house price growth whereby the currency weakened. Important Canadian employment figures will have a significant effect on the market at lunchtime today: Stay in touch now for all information and price levels before the end of the week.

Better Eurozone data boosts the euro | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

It was a reasonably good day for sterling yesterday as the Bank of England embarks upon a two-day Monetary policy committee meeting to review interest rates. Despite weakening against a stronger euro, it rose by the most in two months against the US dollar during the afternoon. The HBOS house price index data came in better than expected during the morning, giving sterling an early boost, whilst gains later in the day have been attributed to speculation amongst traders that the Bank of England will vote against any further loosening of monetary policy in a statement tomorrow. Monthly manufacturing output data, monthly GDP data and other announcements from the Bank of England concerning the official interest rate and asset purchase facility could all have an impact today, which could throw a degree of turbulence into price levels. Call your trader now to see if the rebound from March is being sustained.

Euro

The euro enjoyed a strong day yesterday gaining almost a cent against the US dollar on the back of better than expected industrial production figures from Germany. Portugal shocked the markets, with March industrial sales figures vastly exceeding expectations, adding to a new found momentum gathering around the seventeen-nation currency. The gains continued as a European Central Bank board member said that the risk of break-up of the single currency is behind us, pushing the euro up towards 1.32 against the US dollar, and even gaining against a strong sterling over the course of Wednesday. The big story today is the Spanish bond auction this afternoon, with effects likely to be amplified by low trading volumes due to bank holidays in France and Germany. Call in now to see if euro has managed to keep strengthening.

US dollar

The US dollar failed to maintain an upward trend following favourable employment figures earlier in the month – falling against both the sterling and euro throughout yesterday. Despite news that the currency was close to reaching the psychologically important 100 Japanese yen level, data releases were fairly light in anticipation of the Federal Reserve Chairman speaking on Friday. Wholesale activity data coming out this evening is expected to show a pickup though March however and a run of positive developments would certainly increase the currency's appeal, especially if the outcomes increases expectations of the Federal Reserve reducing its asset purchasing programme. US Dollar gains have indeed been diluted under the shadow of the programme, though there is a greater discussion to scale back on quantitative easing as the recovery in the world's largest economy gathers pace. The Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech may give clues as to what we can expect, so keep up to date with developments with your trader throughout today.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, Sweden's government committed to a more active, interventionist attitude towards the krona whilst the New Zealand dollar fell to a five-week low following the Reserve Bank's Governor announcement that selling off the currency would be done to protect growth. This was surprising news considering the currency has enjoyed strong performance recently. Significant for the Polish zloty was news that the country's central bank is to cut interest rates by 0.25% - the second such unexpected announcement in two days following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to slash its benchmark rate level. Poland has been struggling to recover from a sluggish growth that has left Europe's second largest economy in a precarious position. Overnight we saw unemployment data from Australia and New Zealand which immediately saw both currencies gain significant ground. Call in now to see what impact this had on your currency exchange rates.

Sterling steady at recent highs - is it a good time to buy euros or US dollars? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Despite a quiet day on the data-front, sterling had a weaker day yesterday, dropping against all its major peers bar the poorly performing Australian and New Zealand dollars. It had a particularly weak afternoon, dropping almost a cent against the US dollar in just over an hour; whether this is a bump in the road or a sign of changing fortunes for the recently buoyant sterling remains to be seen through a quiet week for UK economic data. Prices today are likely to be effected by data released elsewhere whilst at the same time looking ahead to the Central Bank's rate decision on Thursday. Stay in touch with developments by talking to your dedicated trader today.

Euro

The euro gained through early trading off the back of better than expected German factory order figures, pushing back against a weaker performing sterling and Swiss franc. Though it relinquished some ground to the US dollar, the euro managed to make gains throughout the day thanks in part to a successful Portuguese bond auction. With German industrial orders for March beating forecasts some relief was bestowed to the single currency though the general outlook for the region in the longer term is still decidedly less auspicious. We expect very little data to be released today, nonetheless, with trading volumes decreased as Europe begins two days of bank holidays we could see increased volatility so call in now for an up to the second rate.

US dollar

It was a relatively quiet day for the US dollar yesterday following the release of some influential figures towards the end of last week which has seen it gain against the Japanese yen in recent days. Ground was made against sterling as the rate dropped back below 1.55, as well as a steadily performance against the euro whereby the currency continues to hold firm in the wake of the stronger than expected monthly US jobs report last Friday. Some movement may come today as a member of the Federal Open Market Committee is speaking alongside the release of crude oil inventories data and the 10-year bond auction. Looking further ahead to Thursday we shall see whether unemployment claims data corroborates figures from last week. Call in now for live rates and up to date information.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, markets were still reacting to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision to cut interest rates to record lows – forcing the Australian dollar weaker against most of its major peers and to its lowest level in two months against the US dollar. The market had been divided on the prospects of rates being slashed and the potential for further loosening could weigh heavily on the currency's price levels in the coming weeks as the economy rebalances and the government attempts to stimulate exports. Faring little better was the New Zealand dollar which tracked its Australian counterpart downward during the day – suffering again particularly against the US dollar. Late last night the Reserve Bank of New Zealand presented its Financial Stability Report and later on this evening employment data will also be in focus with releases from both New Zealand and Australia. Call in for an immediate update with Smart.

Sterling steady at recent highs - is it a good time to buy euros or US dollars? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling remained steady over the bank-holiday having gone into the weekend on an even keel and having advanced across the board on Friday morning after data showed that the nation's dominant services sector had in April recorded its strongest rate of growth since last year’s Olympic Games. The Services Purchasing Manager's Index recorded its highest reading since August and was the fourth monthly consecutive rise. The data has added to signs that the UK’s glacial economic recovery could be gaining pace and will be a relief to the coalition government after it received a drubbing in the UK local council elections. Thursday will see the Bank of England meet for its monetary policy decision. As always, the decision and statement which follows will be watched closely by investors. At present, the general consensus is that the level of asset purchases will remain unchanged as will the central bank interest rate especially following the better than expected data released out of the UK recently. There is a belief that there is less necessity for the central bank to ease, however at the same time the government is under increasing pressure from Europe to take measures to stimulate growth. Talk to your trader for the latest prices leading up to the release.

Euro

The euro’s strong performance at the end of last week was reversed yesterday as it slipped across it’s major pairings after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stated the bank is closely watching incoming data and is prepared to take further action if required to address imbedded economic weakness. Adding to that tone, surveys showed business in the euro zone to have struggled in April with retail sales down for a second month, whilst Germany is suffering a contraction in commercial activity that has been haunting France, Spain and Italy – with the former German finance minister who launched the euro, speaking out in support of breaking up the seventeen nation currency. This week is likely to be a quiet one for the single currency with bank holidays on Wednesday and Thursday in France and Germany. Thursday's Spanish bond auction will be a key indicator as to how much confidence the new ECB measures have elicited, so get in touch for the latest live rates and developments.

US dollar

The US dollar continued to perform well yesterday in the wake of Friday’s surprisingly positive US April jobs data - fuelling optimism the economy may be more resilient than recently feared. Employment picked up more than forecast in April and the jobless rate unexpectedly declined to a four-year low, showing federal budget cuts failed to destabilize the U.S. labour market. Non-Farm payrolls expanded more than expected, with hiring advancing last month even as employers witnessed the onset of planned government spending reductions. However, data released soon after regarding US factory orders revealed a drop through March as a cooling economy slowed demand for mining, metals and military products. Companies are feeling the effects of slowing growth in Europe, Asia and the US, where higher taxes and federal budget cuts have diluted consumer spending, though orders could pick up as employment and demand strengthens. Weekly Unemployment Claims data is due to be released  on Thursday where more good news could see further dollar strength, furthermore, several members of the Federal Open Market Committee will be speaking this week and the Federal Reserve Chairman will be expressing his thoughts on Friday. Keep updated with your trader for up to the minute information and price levels until then.

Worldwide

The Australian dollar fell significantly on Monday in reaction to an unexpected contraction in retail sales and sluggish Chinese services activity: a stark contrast to the currency’s strong performance last week against all it’s major peers on the back of metal stock price increases. The Australian dollar is at it's lowest level since 2009 against the New Zealand’s dollar amid prospects that monetary policy will diverge in the two nations over the year. Canadian dollar prices rose against commodity-backed currencies such as Australia and New Zealand after a report showed building permits increased more than forecast. Call in today for the latest news and prices for your traded currencies.

Euro falls against sterling following ECB meeting | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling ended yesterday at around the same level as the start of the week – firming up hopes that last Thursday's growth figures could be the catalyst for a sustained period of recovery. Indeed, both Manufacturing and Construction Purchase Manager's indices (PMI) exceeded expectations and although both continued to indicate a slight contraction, the data was enough to support sterling against most of its major peers. More positivity came as a report from the Bank of England revealing that British banks had eased housing credit restrictions and granted more home loans through March in excess of what many had predicted. Today sees the last of purchasing manager's indices released with a small increase forecast for the services industry. Be in touch with your trader to see if sterling can find further gains into the long weekend. 

Euro

The biggest story of the week came yesterday in a pivotal day for the euro. After nervous early trading, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that interest rates would be cut to a record low of 0.5%. The widely anticipated move did little to affect the relative strength of the euro as it was largely “priced in” to the market. It was the comments from the ECB President in the press conference that followed which caused the euro to fall sharply after he said that there was scope not only for a further cut in rates, but even that he would '...keep an open mind on negative deposit rate.' The unexpected revelation caused the euro to plummet by over a cent, exaggerated by a further extension to the unlimited liquidity policy. Today is not likely to have as much influence on price levels. However as traders digest the fallout from the interest rate decision and the President of the ECB’s comments we have economic forecasts from the EU. Get in touch now for up-to-the-second developments on euro prices.

US dollar

The US dollar had a mixed week as a raft of data was released alongside comments from the Federal Bank who reiterated its commitment to keeping monetary policy ultra-loose until the labour market recovers to such an extent that the overall rate of unemployment drops to 6.5% (now around 7.5%). With mixed labour data released so far this week, all eyes will be on today’s figures where we will see the release of the highly influential non – farm payroll data alongside the overall unemployment rate. The US Trade Deficit meanwhile shrank 11% to 38.8 billion dollars; it's second lowest level in three years as imports dropped by the greatest margin since early 2009, with the decrease in the trading shortfall with China being a major catalyst. Call in now to speak to your trader and for an update on the market. 

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the major focus this week has been on the release of China's PMI data which showed  the world's second largest economy grew at a slower rate throughout April than expected as China appears to be slowing down following the first quarter of the year. Australian and New Zealand dollars were particularly affected; though the Canadian dollar found a foothold yesterday with a ten-week high against the US dollar and strengthening against most of its major peers. The Russian rouble struggled yesterday, falling especially against the US dollar as a result of crude oil prices dropping in value by the most in 2 weeks. The Swedish krona also had a poor day, falling for the first time in a week as the manufacturing data released yesterday showed production declining in a country that has weathered the recession well in previous months. Get in touch at any point to see how price levels are moving in your currency pair. 

The ECB meet today - expect euro volatility | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling enjoyed a good day yesterday, rising to an eleven week high against the US dollar, helped by better than forecast Purchase Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector. Britain's factories output seems to be stabilising in April after months of contraction, sending sterling upward amidst hopes the recovery is consolidating and with export orders rising for the first time in over a year from demand outside the Eurozone. Today sees the same release for the construction sector which has been contracting consistently for the last six months - if it follows yesterday's trend we can expect sterling to react positively, though prices remain susceptible to any hint that the recent bubble of strong data could burst. Call in now for the latest news and up to the second rates.

Euro

It was a relatively quiet day for the seventeen nation currency yesterday. The euro strengthened against an underperforming US dollar but made little overall progress against sterling, with the market nervous ahead of today's European Central Bank meeting and interest rate decision. The expectation amongst traders is the ECB will announce an interest rate cut to record lows of 0.5%. Whilst this should weaken euro price levels (although much of the market movement is thought to already be “priced in”), the theory is this should increase consumer spending and henceforth help to stimulate an elusive recovery in the region. Any outcome around lunchtime other than the predicted cut to 0.5% is likely to have a material effect; furthermore, analysts will look for any positive steps being taken by the ECB to stimulate demand in the region alongside the anticipated interest rate cut. Please be in touch throughout the day for live rates and up to the minute reactions.

US dollar

The US dollar weakened yesterday on the news that fewer jobs were added than expected in April. Whilst the US dollar dropped on the back of the news, more pressing perhaps is the fear this data points to an increase in the overall rate of unemployment alongside a poor reading for the highly influential non – farm payroll data both of which are released on Friday. The US dollar did strengthen later in the day but last month's trend of soft data appears to be continuing. The other major announcement yesterday was the confirmation that the Federal Bank had left rates unchanged at 0.25% and would stay that low until the unemployment rate reached 6.5%. They also indicated that they would be willing to increase liquidity to the market if growth continued to fall which is a shift from the emphasis of their announcements earlier this year. Today will be significant, with the Trade Balance report released alongside more labour related data in the form of the weekly unemployment claims levels. Call in for how prices react to market developments.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, yesterday's Chinese manufacturing PMI data was a major talking point, with manufacturing showing to have expanded at a weaker pace throughout April – indicating that a slowdown in the world's second largest economy will extend into the second quarter of the year. The impact was felt by the Australian and New Zealand dollars which both had weak days, dropping by over 1% down against sterling and the euro. Furthermore, the Canadian dollar underperformed with commodity prices tumbling in the wake of news from China and following poor US employment figures. Australian construction statistics are released early this morning and later in the day Canadian Trade Balance data will be announced, talk to your trader to see if prices bounce back over the course of the day.

Sterling loses ground against the euro but gains against the US dollar | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had a mixed day on Tuesday, posting its best monthly increase against the US dollar for two years but falling sharply against the euro in the afternoon. With a report from the Bank of England revealing that British banks had eased housing credit restrictions and granted more home loans through March than many had predicted, hopes of a sustained economic recovery kept their momentum. Nevertheless, figures also revealed consumer confidence saw a decline this month and as noted sterling performed less well against a buoyant euro. Today, the main announcement will be the first of the three Purchase Manager’s indices (PMI) released over the next three days data which will prove a particularly significant barometer as to the strength of Britain's recovery. Today’s manufacturing PMI figures will be watched closely. Expectations are for the index to be under 50, which is indicative of a contraction, but that they will be better than the previous months index. Call in for the latest insight to the market and a live price from your trader.

Euro

The euro's fortunes improved somewhat yesterday as it made gains against both sterling and the US dollar during the afternoon as expectation that the European Central Bank will take positive steps to stimulate demand in the region increased alongside the anticipated interest rate cut. It will be interesting to see if the ECB does cut interest rates as some market commentators believe they will hold back to a later date. If they don't this will boost support for the euro. German retail sales data came in slightly stronger than expected during the morning, whilst Monday's resolution to the political situation in Italy continues to bolster euro performance. With little data released across Europe today, euro strength will take its lead from news released elsewhere in addition to the on-going speculation surrounding what course of action the  ECB will take at Thursday’s meeting. Call in now for updates on developments today ahead of this and live rates.

US dollar

The US dollar dropped across the board around lunchtime yesterday as data revealed that business activity in the world's largest economy unexpectedly decreased for the first time in over three years – adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to continue its quantitative easing programme for the time being. The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index figures described a contraction through April topping off a month of poor economic news for the US and worries about the speed of its recovery. Manufacturing data and Crude Oil statistics will preclude an important statement from the Federal Open Market Committee this evening – be in touch to gauge anticipation in the markets throughout the day.

Worldwide

Yesterday was fairly quiet overall elsewhere. The Indian Rupee was a particularly strong performer, rising against the majority of its peers following the announcement of new government measures to ease inflation and steady the currency by attracting investment from overseas. The government of India intends to cut a levy on both corporate bonds and foreign investment which saw a 0.7% gain over sterling, and adds to an aura of confidence around the Indian economy this Spring. The Danish krone, Norwegian krone and Swedish krona all performed well in anticipation of a rate cut from the ECB, furthermore the Norwegian krone was buoyed as data revealed that the rate of unemployment was lower than expected, whilst Sweden's currency being the biggest mover in spite of Swedish growth figures performing only at around half of levels seen last year - capping off an overall good day for Scandinavian currencies. Be in touch with your dedicated trader for up-to-the-second developments and market reactions.