So 2011 is coming to a close and for most is best forgotten. A strange year as it started with the expectation that the UK economy would continue to move forward albeit at a low rate of growth. But as the year comes to a close, the hope is that we will avoid another recession in 2012. The likelihood of any increases in UK interest rates also seems remote as the banks need to restore their balance sheets before allowing funds to be lent to fund economic growth.

This week sterling has lost ground across the board. Post Christmas retail sales went better than expected but there is no doubt margins were significantly reduced as the retailers made a dash for cash. The fear is that further quantitative easing will be required in early 2012 to help boost the UK economy.

Two Italian debt issuances were completed this week. Both were successful although the interest rate was close to 7% for the longer dated bonds. This is the interest rate which is viewed as the tipping point between the debt being affordable or it being unsustainable. These successful debt issuance helped the euro pull back from its 11 month low against sterling. The US$ had a good week benefitting from its safe haven status and an economy that is moving forward at a quicker rate than in Europe.

From all of us here at Smart we wish you all the very best for 2012 and hope that you have the best of health and a highly prosperous year as well.

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Still in the Christmas period when trading volumes are low and the issuance of UK economic data somewhat sparse. Sterling lost a bit of ground as activity focussed on the safe haven status of the US$.

A bit more excitement in the euro zone. The Italian government successfully issued some six month bonds at a much lower interest rate than expected. This was viewed positively. Today we have the Italian government issuing a tranche of longer dated bonds and it will be very interesting to see if they end up paying a lower than expected interest rate.

The US$ gained ground against sterling on the back of a large sale of sterling. This accentuated the US$’s safe haven status. US economic activity continues to be positive which bodes well for the US$ as we enter 2012.

Please remember we are still “open for business” as we come to the end of a very busy 2011.

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A quiet day on the currency markets yesterday as we enjoyed an extended Christmas break. The City of London is the largest currency market in the world and as such trading elsewhere was fairly muted. There was little movement between the major currencies.

At the end of last week, worries about the UK economy came to the fore and the increased probability of further quantitative easing. It is unlikely the post Christmas retail sales have helped much as it seemed that significant price cuts were needed to convince shoppers to part with their cash.

This week we have the Italian government making a debt issuance. The markets will be watching very closely to see how successful it all is. A poor take up of the debt issuance will be negative for the euro.

We are open for business this week so if you need some help with your currency needs please get in touch. We will be delighted to help.

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Markets are quiet in the build-up to Christmas. Sterling had a steady day against most currencies. Slight revisions to previous growth figures were released but it is future growth that most people are worried about and the uncertainty in the euro zone has a very significant knock-on effect on us. A fall back into recession is thought to be highly likely.

The main event for the euro happened on Wednesday with the ECB’s three year funding for the banking system coming to a close. Near enough €500 billion was lent to the banks, representing an important step in maintaining liquidity as banks pulled in their “lending” to other banks.

The US continues to move in a narrow range against sterling. The US economy is clearly ahead of the curve when compared to Europe but I am sure there will be some economic headwinds that make it across the Atlantic.

We circulated our opening hours yesterday for the holiday season but it is very much business as usual. If for whatever reason you do have difficulty getting through by phone, please use the email info@smartcurrencyexchange.com if you are a private client and info@smartcurrencybusiness.com if you are a company. We will get back to you straight away.

All that is left to say is have a wonderful Christmas.



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Sterling hit the highest level against the euro since January 2011, breaking through €1.20/£1 and hitting a high of €1.2043/£1 as strong demand for lending from the ECB failed to alleviate concerns over the European debt crisis. Despite sterling’s strength against the euro, the Bank of England minutes were pretty downbeat with policymakers mulling over further Quantitative Easing in February but this had little impact on the pound. Call in now for a live exchange rate as last year when it hit €1.20 it dropped off for the rest of the year.

In the euro zone, in the first ever offer of cheap 3 year loans by the ECB, banks snapped up €490bn of the funds on offer suggesting that the banking system in the region is heading for an impending funding squeeze. One trader compared the lending as papering over the cracks of a crumbling house. Sterling is expected to move towards €1.25 in the coming months and with total funding requirements in 2012 for sovereign debt sitting at over €1 trillion, this is unsurprising. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, it was a relatively quiet day for data in the USA, with the major action taking place in Europe with the ECB funds issue. Initially there was a boost to risk appetite from the uptake which saw the US dollar weaken off. However, as markets began to realise the implication of such an oversubscribed take up, risk appetite reversed and the US dollar strengthened. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar stayed pretty flat despite retail sales figures coming in higher than expected. As data starts to thin out ahead of Christmas, ensure you don’t get caught out by any volatility.

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Sterling jumped to an 11 month high against the euro yesterday as investors scrambled to buy the pound, believing sterling to be a much safer investment than the ailing euro. Better risk appetite also saw sterling gain against the US dollar as strong US and German economic data reduced demand for the safe haven US currency. Sterling’s relative strength is also being put down to an expectation that the UK will continue to hold onto its prized AAA credit rating whereas many see France and Germany at risk of downgrades. Out later today we have the minutes from the Bank of England’s recent meeting which could pour cold water on yesterday’s rally so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, a sharp drop in Spain’s short term borrowing costs saw the euro strengthen against the US dollar yesterday but the single currency still struggled against sterling. Better than expected German business confidence data also helped, but the picture is still a very gloomy one for the region heading into 2012 with many concerned that European policymakers are not doing enough to solve the European debt crisis. The failure of the recent EU summit to reach a solution and the apparent confusion between leaders, the ECB and the IMF as to the best route forward has been worrying markets.

In the USA, the US housing market showed some signs of recovery yesterday as new housing builds reached the highest level in over a year, increasing by 9.3%. Builders have struggled to compete with a wide number of cheap foreclosure properties, so this data helped to give risk appetite a boost across markets as investors saw a semblance of recovery in the US economy. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar strengthened as inflation held steady at 2.9%. Most analysts feel that the Bank of Canada will look to start tightening monetary policy in the coming months. The Australian dollar also strengthened against the US dollar on better risk appetite and as the central bank minutes were less downbeat than expected.


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Sterling continued to hover around a 10 month high against the euro on Monday as concerns over the euro zone crisis saw investors prefer sterling to the ailing single currency. Sterling closed the day near earlier highs of €1.1930/£1 but still remains vulnerable to poor economic data as the UK recovery stagnates. Potential political instability in North Korea saw sterling drop against the US dollar yesterday morning but strong demand from one bank in London saw sterling recover against the US currency. With thinning trade volumes in the run up to Christmas, there is the potential for some volatile moves so call in now if you have upcoming payments to make to avoid losing out.

In the euro zone, the threat of further downgrades kept the euro under pressure yesterday. The ‘risk off’ trading conditions in the wake of the news over Kim Jong-il’s death combined with this to see the euro drop against its major counterparts. The euro is down by over 2% against sterling in the past month as investors prefer the liquidity that sterling offers in the face of a cloudy future for the single currency heading into 2012. Belgium’s credit rating downgrade on Friday has left many feeling that other major countries in the region are set to suffer a similar fate in the coming months. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar strengthened overnight on safe haven demand as the news emerged of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s death. Political uncertainty over the future of the region saw investors buying US dollars to avoid riskier investments – especially given the country’s history of provocation with South Korea in times of domestic crisis. With the White House issuing a statement that it was monitoring the situation closely, the US dollar ended Monday up marginally against sterling after some bank demand saw sterling recover from earlier lows. Call in now for a live price.

Elsewhere, Chinese new home sales figures were lower than expected which is a concern for many. If the Chinese real estate market continues to suffer, many feel that this will impact on the country’s ability to drive the global recovery in 2012. Call in now to protect yourself from losing out to adverse market movements.


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Sterling is holding on to gains against the euro as the euro zone debt crisis cast a shadow over the single currency. Last week saw sterling break above €1.19/£1 for the first time in 9 months as credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s put 15 of the 17 euro members on notice of a credit rating downgrade. The outlook for the UK economy remains fragile despite upward revisions to retail sales figures. In the run up to Christmas, it is a relatively quiet week for data but we still have the Bank of England’s meeting minutes and also final GDP figures for Quarter 3. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, last week saw Belgium’s credit rating downgraded and France’s rating outlook downgraded to negative. Ongoing concerns over sovereign rating downgrades will keep the euro under pressure heading into the festive period. The main activity today that markets will be looking closely at is a conference call this afternoon between European finance ministers to discuss ways to boost IMF resources. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar strengthened overnight on safe haven demand as the news emerged of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s death. Political uncertainty saw investors buying US dollars to avoid riskier investments. Over the weekend, the Senate approved a $1trn bill to fund government spending and extended the payroll tax cut, but this has since been rejected by the Republicans. Risk sentiment is likely to remain subdued – call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slipped overnight as risk appetite fell due to the euro crisis and uncertainty over the situation in North Korea. Overnight into tomorrow the Reserve Bank of Australia releases its meeting minutes and the RBA is expected to maintain a downbeat tone. Get in touch now to ensure that you take advantage of better exchange rates.

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Sterling has had a strong week against the euro, strengthening to a 10 month high against the single currency and holding ground as European policymakers struggled to come to grips with the euro zone crisis. The pound did however drop against the US dollar as investors looked to the relative safety of the US currency in the face of increasing doubt that a comprehensive solution will be reached on the debt crisis. Whilst sterling has been holding at €1.19/£1, €1.20/£1 is a key level of resistance that will require a large swing in sentiment to reach, but many analysts now expect sterling to push towards that in the coming months. Retail sales were better than expected on Thursday so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro has had a poor week, dropping to an 11 month low against the US dollar and a 10 month low against sterling. Last week’s EU summit seemed to follow the normal pattern – a framework agreed on a solution, but discussions over the detail pushed back to a later date. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned that this lack of action means that policymakers are far from reaching a solution. Concern is mounting that we will begin to see the first stages of a euro break up in the coming months.

In the USA, stock markets have had a turbulent week as investors pull out of higher risk assets and into safer assets such as US government bonds. This flight to the safety of US bonds has also driven US dollar strength throughout the week, hitting a 2 month high against sterling and an 11 month high against the euro. Out later today there is inflation data so call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc strengthened after the Swiss National Bank chose not to change the pegged exchange rate against the euro. This saw currency strengthen after investors had widely expected the SNB to raise the rate to counter deflation in the country. Call in now for a live rate.

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Sterling hit the highest level against the euro for nearly 10 months yesterday, breaking through €1.19/£1 as a lack of confidence in a solution to the debt crisis and the risk of downgrades gathered pace. Negative sentiment towards the euro did however drive sterling lower against the US dollar as investors looked to the safer haven of the US currency. Sterling is not necessarily being driven by any UK data, more the lack of confidence in the euro. One slight positive for sterling was that Spencer Dale, chief economist at the Bank of England, felt that inflation would not fall as fast as predicted and as such he would not necessarily support further Quantitative Easing. Call in now for a live price.

In the euro zone, the euro suffered yesterday again falling to a 10 month low against sterling and an 11 month low against the US dollar. Concerns are high over the impact of potential sovereign debt rating downgrades after several rating agencies this week warned of possible European wide cuts to credit ratings. Italy also struggled to auction a round of 5 year bonds and ended up paying record costs for its 5 year borrowing. Call in now for a live exchange rate as we could conceivably be over 1.20 very soon.

In the USA, stock markets dropped for a 3rd straight day as investors concerns that Europe was not containing the debt crisis impacted on stock purchases. The US dollar strengthened against most currencies as investors looked to the safer haven of the currency to avoid losing out.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc dropped to the weakest level in 9 months ahead of a meeting later today where the Swiss National Bank will decide whether to further weaken the currency. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Sterling hit a fresh 9 month high against the euro yesterday, touching €1.1880/£1 after comments by Angela Merkel unsettled investors already disappointed by the outcome of last week’s EU summit. Traders sold the euro after the German Chancellor made comments that rejected raising the funding limit of Europe’s bailout fund in future. Sterling has made gains as investors move funds from euros into the relative safety of UK government bonds. Many investment banks have been scrambling to amend their sterling/ euro forecasts with many calling for the pound to be nearer to €1.25/£1 in the next few months. Be aware that sterling started 2011 well, jumping above €1.20/£1 but soon dropped to €1.10/£1 so if it does move, be prepared to take advantage to prevent it moving against you.

In the euro zone, with the EU summit falling short of any concrete commitments that would see the ECB issuing ‘eurobonds’ and credit rating agency S&P putting all 27 EU countries on review for a rating downgrade, it is no surprise that Angela Merkel’s comments caused a euro sell-off. Rating agency Fitch also said that a lack of a comprehensive solution to the crisis had put pressure on its own ratings of European states. Despite UK inflation data dropping back below 5%, the euro continued to fall throughout the day. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, US retail sales dropped by 0.4% coming in lower than expectations marking a disappointing end to a relatively positive run of data from the USA. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold overnight and is widely expected to wait until the New Year before launching any new initiatives. This disappointed traders somewhat and saw stocks fall. It is a relatively quiet day for data today but expect markets to be driven by euro sentiment. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar regained ground yesterday against the US dollar and sterling. Commodity backed currencies are particularly volatile at the moment given the ongoing concerns regarding the euro zone – ensure you don’t lose out.

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Sterling surged against the euro yesterday after investor concerns over the EU summit saw sterling jump above €1.18/£1 for the first time since February as investors shed the single currency. The single currency shed 1% against a stronger pound after Friday’s EU summit failed to restore confidence that policymakers could reach a solution. The main headline for the UK has been David Cameron’s decision to veto the EU treaty on Friday and there was talk that this could isolate the UK from Europe in the long term. Despite this, many analysts expect sterling to strengthen against the euro as European policymakers struggle to implement new rules. Out later today there is inflation data so ensure you stay on top of rates and call in to speak to one of the team.

In the euro zone, the euro plummeted as analysts struggled to comprehend how the 17 euro zone nations would implement the new tougher measures agreed on Friday. Following the UK veto, it is up to the remaining countries in the EU to enact laws to entrench binding debt ceilings and punishments, but many analysts are struggling to comprehend how quickly this will address the immediate concerns over liquidity. In terms of data, there is economic sentiment data released tomorrow which is likely to have dropped on last month.

In the USA, the US dollar strengthened yesterday after investors looked to the safe haven of the currency as risk appetite plummeted. Higher yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar fell notably. Out later today there is retail sales data and the Federal Reserve’s monthly interest rate policy statement. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, along with other commodity backed currencies, the Canadian dollar fell to the lowest level in December as Moody’s credit rating agency said that it would review the credit ratings of all EU nations following Friday’s summit. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Sterling had a relatively strong week against the euro last week, but failed to push higher on Friday as analysts were left to digest the outcome of the EU summit. David Cameron’s veto of the treaty changes was referred to as “bad for Britain” by Deputy PM Nick Clegg yesterday and there could be signs of cracks beginning to form in the coalition, which could be negative for sterling. However, polls by major newspapers seem to show that the majority of the public are in favour of the veto. The PM speaks to the Commons later today on the veto and reasons behind it. Later this week we have inflation, unemployment and retail sales figures so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, leaders made decent progress towards a solution to the debt crisis at last week’s summit. The measures include a new treaty aimed at a ‘genuine fiscal stability union’ and the adoption of a new rule that the annual structural deficit may not exceed 0.5% of GDP. In addition, punitive measures kick in if this is deviated from. It is already widely known that the UK was the only member of the EU not to sign up to the new measures and it remains to be seen what the impact of this is likely to be. Later this week there is further discussion over amendments to the EFSF so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar was very volatile last week with the market trading back and forth ahead of the EU summit. In the end, investors were somewhat disappointed at the lack of a comprehensive solution to the crisis and the US dollar ended the week marginally down. Market sentiment is set to remain subdued in the coming days as investors and analysts digest the details of the summit. Released this week we have retail sales and inflation figures so call in now to avoid losing out.

Elsewhere, with market movements and concerns over the EU summit, sterling has performed well against the commodity currencies including the New Zealand dollar. Sterling has held above $2.00/£1 for the past few days, but sentiment is fragile and it could easily drop back below 2. Call in now for a live exchange rate.



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Sterling hit a one month high against the euro yesterday and was set to make further gains after investors sold the euro on concerns that the ECB had not taken more drastic action to solve the euro zone crisis. Whilst the Bank of England made no further changes to monetary policy this month, the ECB cut interest rates by 0.25% and offered long term lending to banks, but many analysts felt this was not enough. The releases of the minutes from the Bank of England’s meeting are expected to show discussions around the introduction of further Quantitative Easing in 2012. QE is normally seen as negative for a currency, but many feel that in the face of the euro crisis, markets may start to reward proactivity from central banks.

In the euro zone, markets were not particularly happy about the lacklustre action from the ECB ahead of the EU summit later today. Yet again, there is an expectation from markets that only a comprehensive solution will suffice, but many are expecting to be disappointed. A clear plan towards fiscal integration is the aim, but most analysts expect a half-baked compromise that will fail do achieve very much. Either way prepare for euro weakness by speaking to one of the team now to avoid losing out.

In the USA, the US dollar has taken a back seat in the last week as investors focus predominantly on the crisis in the euro zone. The US dollar has been a barometer of market sentiment, strengthening against the riskier currencies in the face of the crisis. Released later today is trade balance data, but this is likely to be relatively insignificant compared to what happens in the euro zone.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen strengthened on the ECB’s news, showing that the yen is still a go-to safe haven currency. This morning sterling is performing well against commodity based currencies so call in if you have any currency requirements for those currencies.

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Sterling hit a one month high against the euro yesterday of €1.1748/£1, coming close to the highest level since March after a German official played down market expectations of a comprehensive solution to the euro crisis being announced on Friday. Weak industrial data for the UK was largely ignored as the focus intensifies on the outcome of Friday’s summit. Industrial output slipped at the fastest pace in 6 months in October, raising further concerns over the UK recovery as the economic picture deteriorates further. The Bank of England announces this week’s interest rate decision later today and is not expected to make any changes to monetary policy this month.

In the euro zone, the euro fell after a German official said that Berlin was becoming pessimistic over the likelihood of a comprehensive solution being announced on Friday as many governments failed to grasp the gravity of the situation. A key focus of the summit is the level of progress towards fiscal integration whilst minimising the moral hazard of any political changes. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates today so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar yet again took a back seat to the European debt crisis and the build up to Friday’s EU summit and today’s (expected) interest rate cut. Barclays Capital yesterday amended their US dollar/ sterling forecasts to reflect a general movement from euros towards the US dollar over the coming months, meaning that sterling is now expected to drop steadily towards $1.50/£1 over the next 12 months. Call in now to avoid losing out.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar strengthened yesterday after GDP growth figures came in at 2.5% - beating expectations by nearly 1%. Australian growth has been strong, yet the Reserve Bank of Australia has begun to cut interest rates to cope with potential slowing demand from China.

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Sterling fell against the US dollar yesterday as it followed the euro downwards after credit rating agency S&P put 15 out of the 17 euro zone countries on notice for a potential credit rating downgrade. Poor retail sales figures and housing surveys contrasted with stronger than expected industrial data from Germany, highlighting the fragility of the UK economy. Survey by the British Retail Consortium showed that retailers suffered their biggest annual drop in like for like sales since May. UK data has been particularly poor of late and as a result, sterling has taken a punishment as the euro crisis deepens. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro fell against the US dollar as investors focussed on the unprecedented warning issued by rating agency S&P. With the credit warning including France and Germany, investors are increasingly concerned over these perceived ‘safer’ countries and their abilities to repay their debts. With the ECB widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday and the EU summit set to deliver a day of volatility it is set to be an interesting few days on the currency markets. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, it was a fairly quiet day in terms of data with no real significant releases. With markets waiting for the EU Summit on Friday and the ECB interest rate decision tomorrow morning, there is no clear direction as to the US dollar’s direction ahead of the New Year. Friday will be a key day that decides the movement for the coming months so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc continues to come under pressure after an array of poor figures and talk of the Swiss National Bank increasing its floor on Euro/ Swiss franc to €1.25/€1 or more. Call in now to ensure you are protecting yourself ahead of Friday’s summit.

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Sterling strengthened against a weaker US dollar yesterday after risk appetite improved following good demand at a Spanish bond auction. Sterling slipped from earlier highs against the euro after poor manufacturing figures showed that the sector had contracted for a second month in a row. Whilst there is improved risk appetite, sterling could be set for gains against the euro if European policymakers fail to address the crisis effectively in the coming days. This week has seen poor prospects for sterling as the outlook for growth was slashed in George Osborne’s autumn statement. In terms of data, there is construction sector activity data released later today which is expected to show a contraction. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, despite Spain’s borrowing costs hitting the highest levels for 14 years, there was widespread relief that the country managed to sell the full amount of debt at a closely watched bond auction yesterday. This was important as it was a key gauge for investors as to market sentiment over Spain’s ability to cover its debts. Analysts expect sterling to strengthen over the coming months against the euro as investors move funds into UK government bonds, which remain AAA rated by all major rating agencies. Call in now to ensure you are in a position to take advantage.

In the USA, the US dollar slid against the euro for the 4th day in a row as risk appetite steadily improved over the week. With many investors positioning themselves for today’s key employment number – non farm payrolls – it was a relatively quiet day for the US dollar. US data has been better than expected this week, which has added to the improving picture for the US recovery. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, the commodity backed currencies have had a strong week making gains off the back of improved risk appetite despite the crisis in Europe. Wednesday’s co-ordinated action by central banks to ease the US dollar swap rate improved sentiment globally. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Sterling jumped by 0.8% against the US dollar yesterday after co-ordinated emergency action by several central banks saw risk appetite jump and investors return to riskier assets. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and central banks of Canada, Japan and Switzerland agreed to cut the cost of US dollar swaps to help boost liquidity and help European banks hurt by the euro zone crisis. Despite the gloomy outlook outlined in Tuesday’s autumn statement, sterling rallied against the US dollar, but slipped against ‘riskier’ currencies as investors felt happier taking risks. Out later today there is manufacturing activity data which will be key in painting a picture of the UK recovery. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro surged against the US dollar on the news of the co-ordinated action, in essence a huge injection of Quantitative Easing on a global scale. Liquidity – or the availability of borrowing – has been squeezed by the escalation of the European debt crisis. The measures are in no way a solution to the crisis and the euro faces a make or break 10 days. With rumours circulating of firms implementing assessments of the impact of a euro break up, European policymakers have until the December 9th summit to deliver an effective solution that delivers a long term fix to the problems. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar weakened off against most of its major counterparts as the measures were announced. With cheaper US dollars now widely available, investors took advantage and bought into higher yielding ‘commodity backed’ currencies. Aside from this, there was some surprisingly positive data released in the US yesterday that showed that US private sector jobs increased by 206,000 in the previous month. Business activity data jumped and US pending home sales jumped by 10% in October. Combined with last week’s strong retail sales, the figures painted a much better than expected picture of the US recovery than many had thought. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, commodity currencies surged as investors took advantage of increased risk appetite. The South African rand jumped by over 2% against the US dollar and the Australian dollar made similar gains. If you are moving those currencies into sterling, now is a great time so call in now to take advantage.

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Sterling stayed firm against the US dollar and strengthened above €1.17/£1 against the euro despite a particularly downbeat statement by the Chancellor in his autumn statement to parliament. Growth forecasts for 2012 were downgraded to 0.7% from an estimated 2.5% in March and the Office of Budget Responsibility expects the economy to contract by 0.1% in the 4th Quarter of this year. Poor data in past weeks has also cemented the gloomy outlook for the economy with retail sales dropping by the highest level for 2 ½ years in October as consumers cut back on spending with inflation holding at more than 5%. Sterling recovered as most of the bad news was factored into the exchange rates. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro rose for a second day against the US dollar as there was speculation that the European Central Bank may lend money to the IMF in order to help Italy cope with the debt crisis. Italy’s borrowing costs have sky rocketed as investors have deserted the country in the wake of the recent crisis and left it having to pay more and more to borrow. Market sentiment yesterday seemed to suggest that European policymakers are taking action on the crisis, which helped support the euro.

In the USA, a rebound in consumer confidence in November also gave investor risk appetite a boost and saw the US dollar weaken off from recent highs. Out later today there is pending home sales and building approvals figures – both key pieces of data in the assessment of the US recovery’s prospects. Call in now to ensure you take advantage of any rate movements.

Elsewhere, the boost in risk appetite saw the commodity backed currencies strengthen against the US dollar and sterling. The Australian dollar surged by 2% against the US dollar before pulling back later in the day.

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Sterling recovered from a 7 week low against the US dollar on Monday as risk appetite improved across global markets. Rumours that European leaders were pushing towards more radical action on the euro zone crisis sparked by reports that the IMF was preparing an aid package for Italy saw a surge in demand for risk related assets. However, poor data from the UK put investor expectations of a recovery off course. Retail sales figures came in very low, showing a fall at the highest rate for 2 ½ years as consumers cut back spending. In addition, a report by the OECD stated that the UK will slip back into recession next year and that the Bank of England should increase the level of Quantitative Easing to £400bn. Today sees the chancellor’s Autumn report so call in now to avoid losing out.

In the euro zone, the euro recovered from 7 week lows against the US dollar as there was fresh hope of progress in the euro zone crisis as rumours circulated that the IMF was preparing an emergency aid package for Italy. In addition, with a European Summit next week and a European Finance Ministers meeting later today, many hoped to see progress towards more decisive action. The crisis continues to dominate currency movements, so ensure you protect yourself by calling and speaking to one of the team today.

In the USA, risk appetite was helped by reports of strong retail sales on “Black Friday” – the traditional post-Thanksgiving day of retail discounting similar to Boxing Day in the UK. In addition, there were reports that yesterday – dubbed “Cyber Monday” – would see record levels of online shopping ahead of Christmas, which helped investors feel marginally better and saw the US dollar slip off.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar jumped by more than 2% against the euro, hitting a one week high and the New Zealand dollar gained by 2% as investors felt better that a solution to the Europe crisis was on the way. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Sterling strengthened from a 7 week low against the US dollar last week as risk appetite improved on Friday. Sterling held its ground against the euro as well. The big event of the coming week is set to be the Chancellor’s autumn statement, released tomorrow. We are likely to see George Osborne reaffirm the government’s commitment to cutting the deficit, but the main focus is expected to be a reduction in growth forecasts for next year. The EU crisis is expected to have a knock on effect and see the UK skirting recession next year – all of which could have an impact on sterling. Other key data released this week includes UK manufacturing, mortgage lending and consumer confidence. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the main news of last week was Germany’s ‘failed’ bond auction in which they failed to sell the full allocation of bonds on offer. We have November’s EU summit this week and with the lack of progress made in the last month over a credible plan to solve the crisis, there will be a lot to talk about. German and French leaders have come under particular pressure and any failure to address market concerns over the situation will heighten market tensions. Ensure you speak to one of the team to avoid losing out.

In the USA, the US dollar continues to maintain its position as the only real safe haven currency and as such is particularly strong at the moment. Last week’s ‘Black Friday’ showed reportedly much higher sales than in the previous year and as a result, investors feel good about retail sales in the country and the prospects for recovery. Later this week we have figures on payroll and manufacturing which could sink any optimism so call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc benefited on Friday on rumours that the Swiss National Bank would increase the currency peg floor to €1.25 against the euro. However, the SNB is likely to wait for any developments from the EU summit before making any decisions. Call in now for a live price.

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Currency note 24th November 2011

Important notice: Today is Thanksgiving (a public holiday) in the USA and as a result, US dollar payments will be delayed by one day as US routing banks will be shut. Please allow an extra day if you are paying suppliers in US dollars. This may also impact other currency payments so bear this in mind.

Sterling fell to a further 6 week low against the US dollar yesterday, falling below $1.55/ £1 following steep drops in the prices of riskier currencies/ commodities. A raft of poor data from the euro zone saw investors pull back from positions in riskier positions. With sterling seen as a relatively riskier option to the US dollar, the pound has come under pressure as the European crisis intensifies. The pound wasn’t helped either by the Bank of England’s minutes that showed policymakers unanimously voting for no change to monetary policy. One positive was that sterling strengthened against the euro. Call in now to ensure you take advantage.

In the euro zone, the euro tumbled yesterday following poor demand for German bonds. Germany is seen by many as the ‘safe haven’ of the euro zone and the lacklustre bond auction yesterday may be the first signs of the markets beginning to question Germany’s ability to handle the European crisis. In addition, data showed that industrial orders and purchasing figures fell in the region, signalling an impending recession. Call in now for a price to make sure you don’t lose out.

In the USA, the US dollar strengthened to the highest level against the euro since early October as investors became more and more concerned over the impact that the European debt crisis was having on France and Germany – the region’s largest economies. Markets are becoming more and more concerned globally and as such are seeking the safe haven of US dollars. Ensure you protect yourself by speaking to one of the team today.
Elsewhere, Chinese data released yesterday showed a sharp contraction in manufacturing activity. The figures shocked many who had been relying on China to drive the global recovery forward.

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Important notice: Thursday is Thanksgiving (a public holiday) in the USA and as a result, US dollar payments will be delayed by one day as US routing banks will be shut. Please allow an extra day if you are paying suppliers in US dollars.

Sterling fell to a 6 week low against the US dollar yesterday as riskier currencies became hampered by the failure of US politicians to reach agreement on spending cuts and concerns over the European debt crisis continued to wreak havoc. Whilst the pound did start to recover, it also hit a 3 week low against the euro as banks allegedly repatriated funds in order to start recapitalising. In terms of data, we have the Bank of England’s minutes released later today which are set to show that there is potentially further Quantitative Easing on the way as the UK economy struggles with high inflation and low growth. Call in now for a live price.

In the euro zone, the euro slipped yesterday against the US dollar as rumours surfaced that Belgium and France were in fresh talks regarding the existing deal for Dexia – the first bank to be bailed out in Europe following the euro zone crisis. The concerns were over the fact that France could be taking on more and more liabilities – especially given the recent warnings over France’s credit rating in recent weeks. Out later today there is a wide array of economic activity data so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

In the USA, US GDP growth figures were revised downwards yesterday to 2% quarter on quarter which saw risk appetite decrease and increased demand for the US dollar. With the US super committee failing to reach an agreement on spending cuts, there is a significant risk that we could see another credit rating agency downgrade the US credit rating. Get in touch now to avoid losing out.

Elsewhere, sterling surged against the South African rand yesterday hitting the highest level since August 2009. Riskier currencies like the South African rand have taken a hit recently as investors pull out of riskier positions. Call in now to take advantage of better rates.

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Sterling fell to the lowest level against the US dollar for 6 weeks yesterday as investors moved away from riskier assets, but sterling remained supported against the euro given concerns over euro zone stability. With a fragile UK economy and the Bank of England’s minutes release tomorrow that are expected to show the Bank’s readiness to deploy further Quantitative Easing, sterling is set to continue to come under pressure against the US dollar. Some analysts are predicting that sterling will fall to $1.53/£1 by the end of the year as the recovery slows. Figures yesterday showed that UK shopper numbers fell by the fastest rate since last year’s heavy snow as consumers tightened their belts. Out later today there is key data on public sector borrowing that could cause some volatility. Call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

In the euro zone, fears over the debt crisis continued to cause issues with stock markets falling to 6 week lows as credit rating agency Moody’s issued a warning over France’s credit rating as a result of the country’s exposure to Greece and Italy. Comments from ‘guru’ investor Warren Buffett didn’t help either – the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ stated that he couldn’t see how and when the European debt crisis would end. Out later today there is consumer confidence data for the region so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar surged against its counterpart currencies as investors shunned riskier assets and the debt crisis raged on. US stock markets fell yet again, with the S&P 500 slipping below the 1,200 level for the first time since October. Out later today there is US GDP data so call in as this could cause some movement.

Elsewhere, a swift recovery in Japanese manufacturing supply chains helped the economy recover from a post-quake recession and grow by 1.5% in the 3rd Quarter. However, record highs on the Japanese yen have seen exports drop by 3.7% despite intervention by central authorities to weaken the yen.

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Sterling strengthened against the US dollar on Friday as investors who had placed bets against sterling reversed them ahead of the weekend. In addition, there was speculation that the ECB would start lending to the IMF in order to bail out troubled European countries. Sterling slipped slightly against the euro as a result, but this was due to the fact that the pound has now become some what of a safe haven currency in the face of a growing crisis in the euro zone and as a result, sterling is likely to gain against the euro if investors become concerned. This week, we have the Bank of England’s meeting minutes and the 1st revision of 3rd Quarter GDP – both of which could cause significant volatility.

In the euro zone, it was yet another volatile week, with a sharp rise in government bond yields across the board demonstrating the ‘contagion’ that so many analysts have feared for some time. One piece of relatively positive data over the weekend was the news of the crushing election victory by Spain’s centre right. The strong majority should give the new government the ability to push through the tough austerity measures required and to (hopefully) keep the country’s bond prices down. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

It is a potentially big week in the USA, with the looming deadline of the so-called ‘super-committee’. This was a bi-partisan body set up in the wake of the debt ceiling debacle in August to agree a further $1.2trn of spending cuts in order to avoid automatic cuts in 2013. Given the fractious nature of US politics, if the talks do breakdown it could cause some issues in the markets yet again. There is preliminary GDP growth figures released later in the week so call in to ensure you don’t lose out.

Elsewhere, the resurgence of violence in Egypt has put many analysts on edge. The lack of political reform since the uprising earlier this year has caused some to worry about the situation in the region. Call in now for a live rate.

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Sterling strengthened yesterday after stronger than expected retail sales figures provided some rare positive news on the UK economy. Figures showed that retail sales increased by 0.6% in October – beating expectations for a fall. Despite this rare piece of good news, many analysts feel there are still significant risks facing the UK economy – especially heading into the new year when growth can stall after Christmas. Sterling should however remain supported against the euro given the concerns over risks of contagion in the euro zone. Elsewhere this week, inflation fell and the number of new people claiming unemployment benefits fell significantly on last month. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, it appeared that the European debt crisis was close to claiming its 3rd victim in as many weeks. Spain’s borrowing costs jumped yesterday, with the country having to pay 6.975% on new borrowing yesterday 3 days ahead of an election that is expected to see the ruling socialist party toppled. Bond yields in many other countries in the region also suffered with many analysts predicting that markets are now pricing in a break up of the euro zone. Call in now for a live rate as there is significant volatility.

In the USA, stock markets fell for another day on Thursday as fears over the euro zone crisis causing a global liquidity crisis negated recent positive data showing a 7 month low for new jobless claims and an increase in permits for new homes. Many had felt that these positive signs were a sign that the US recovery was under way, but the gathering storm in Europe is a worrying sign for the global recovery. Ensure you take advantage of any volatility and speak to one of the traders today.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen strengthened to a 2 ½ week high against the US dollar as concern over the euro zone saw investors seek refuge in the safe haven currency. This was the lowest level since the Japanese intervention of October 31st. Markets are very jittery at the moment in relation to the euro zone, so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

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UK unemployment continues to grow hitting 17 year highs as the private sector is unable to take up the slack from those being made unemployed in the public sector. Unemployment for the under 25’s is over 20%. We also had yesterday the Bank of England forecasts for the UK economy which reduced growth expectations over the next 9 months to nil as a result of the problems in the euro zone which is the UK’s main export market. Further quantitative easing is being talked about which meant that sterling gave back its morning gains against the euro in the afternoon. One positive from the BoE was their expectation that inflation would be less than 2% by the end of 2012. But they have been wrong before. So the UK is not in a great position economy wise. Call in now to get a rate to minimise risk in these difficult times.

Business confidence in the euro zone begins to ebb away as the markets wait for a comprehensive and believable plan with regard to restructuring of their debts, bank and government. Yields on Italian government debt hovered around the 7% level which given that this seemed to be dependent on buying by the European Central Bank is not comforting. So as uncertainty reigns and I suggest you give us a call to get the latest update.

The US$ continues to benefit from its safe haven status and strengthen against sterling. But the US economy is also suffering from the uncertainty in the euro zone and expectations for US company performances such as the banks are beginning to be downgraded.

The commodity backed currencies held their own yesterday. The euro zone crisis is having an effect on business confidence worldwide and although still growing the Far East is still dependent on what happens in the northern hemisphere.

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UK inflation data for October fell by 0.2% from the previous month. Trouble is at 5% it is still way above the Bank of England’s target rate of 2%. Expectation is that it will fall in the new year as last January’s VAT increases flow through. Problems in the euro bond market continue to trouble sterling against currencies other than the euro as a significant proportion of the UK’s trade is with the euro zone. Today we have the unemployment figures which are unlikely to make happy reading. Unemployment for the under 25’s is of great concern as jobs have dried up for this age group. Exchange rates continue to be volatile so call in for a rate now.

The euro zone problems continue. Confidence in euro zone bonds of all countries apart from Germany’s is slipping away which means that the problems of Italy and Greece could spread to other countries such as France and Austria which in theory have AAA rated bonds. Business confidence continues to wane which means that given the size of the euro zone business confidence world wide is affected. Urgent action is required. Expect continued volatility and call in now to reduce your risk.

The US$ is the “go to” currency in these uncertain times as risk aversion heightens and its safe haven status is much sought after. Sterling has lost a couple of cents against the US$ since the start of the week and it is difficult to see this momentum changing in the near term even though economic conditions in the US are far from rosy.

Commodity backed currencies have gained ground against sterling which is slightly perverse given increased risk aversion. I think it highlights how dependent the UK economy is on the euro zone whereas the commodity backed currencies are tied to China and its on-going growth.

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Sterling fell against the US dollar on Monday, mirroring the euro’s drop against the US currency as concerns over the euro zone’s huge debt problems continued to concern investors globally. Sterling – whilst a preferred option to the euro – is still seen as a riskier investment given the likelihood of further quantitative easing and a clouded outlook for the recovery. It was a relatively quiet data for data, with most investors holding out for the Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report, released on Wednesday. Markets will be looking for any signs of further downside risks for sterling and some analysts expect the UK’s growth outlook to be cut. Employment and retail sales figures later in the week could also weigh on sterling’s prospects – call in now for a live exchange rate to avoid losing out due to adverse market movements.

In the euro zone, there was a slight glimmer of hope yesterday after it was announced over the weekend that former European Commissioner Mario Monti would head up a new Italian government in order to end a crisis that has engulfed the whole euro zone. However, this optimism was short lived as Italy paid a record level of interest on a new 5 year bond auction and industrial production in the region recorded its biggest drop since the beginning of 2009, falling by 2%.

In the USA, stock markets fell as investors became unnerved by the Italian bond auction and sought safer havens in alternative asset classes. US government bond prices rebounded as markets looked to them as a safe haven. With the Swiss franc and Japanese yen no longer a viable option for investors after government intervention, the US dollar has become the only real ‘go-to’ on this front.

Elsewhere, the price of gold dropped on concerns over the euro zone crisis. It is generally indicative of the level of concern that if gold prices are dropping, investors really are worried. Around the time of the Lehman Bros, gold fell significantly. This is an interesting one to track with regard to market sentiment.


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Sterling strengthened against the US dollar on Friday as risk sentiment improved following expectations that Italy would push through austerity measures. In addition, positive US data helped risk appetite as investors felt happier about the global recovery. The recent volatility in the euro zone has also seen demand for UK government bonds increase and this should keep sterling relatively well supported against the euro – despite lacklustre domestic data. Out later this week we have the Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report which could be relatively downbeat and outline further quantitative easing dependant on the situation in the euro zone. In addition, there consumer confidence, retail sales and unemployment figures so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, whilst we start the week with new governments for both Greece and Italy, long term structural reform is needed in the region in order to improve the region’s prospects. Both interim governments are however unlikely to be able to push forward with the ‘harder’ spending reforms and as a result we could see elections early next year. In terms of data, it is a quiet start to the week followed on Tuesday by a whole raft of 3rd quarter GDP figures that are expected to show a significant drop in output in the last few months. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, figures on Friday showed that US consumer confidence had improved to the highest level in 5 months, with more Americans feeling better about the economy. In terms of data, it is a relatively busy week with wholesale price inflation, retail sales figures and consumer price inflation. The US dollar has been incredibly sensitive to the situation in the euro zone so call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last meeting are released later today. Following the last meeting in which interest rates were cut by 0.25%, the minutes should give an interesting idea of what would prompt another cut in rates. Call in now to protect yourself.


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Sterling dropped from earlier highs against the euro and slid lower against the US dollar after concerns over the euro zone led investors to pull back from exposure to riskier currencies. As had been expected, the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold and keep the asset purchase programme on hold. Whilst this was a key event of the week, markets focussed much more on developments in the euro zone and more or less ignored the Bank of England meeting. It has been a turbulent week on the markets, with sterling hitting a 10 month high against the euro and numerous clients taking advantage of the better rates, now is a great time to call in and speak to one of the team about fixing in preferential rates.

In the euro zone, to say it has been a week of panic is an understatement. In the course of 10 days we have seen the leaders of 2 European countries ousted as they lose their majorities and the focus of the crisis shift rapidly and detrimentally to Rome. Italian borrowing costs shot through the roof – well beyond what are seen as ‘sustainable’ levels leaving many expecting the country would need a bailout. However, the country’s debt is too large to be bailed out by the EU – especially as Italy is meant to be contributing to the European Bailout Fund. Have we seen the beginning of the end for the euro? I’m sure we will know soon enough. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar has been the subject of ‘risk averse demand’ i.e. investors have been pulling out of high risk holdings and piling funds into the safe haven of US government bonds and cash. This has seen demand for US dollars jump and as such, sterling has had a poor week against the US dollar. Out later today there are consumer sentiment figures and the US markets are shut for Veteran’s Day which could increase volatility.

Elsewhere, sterling has had a good week against the ‘commodity’ currencies as investors pull out of riskier trades and back into the relative safety of the pound. In all this market turmoil and panic, I hope you can take a moment to reflect on this Remembrance Day Friday. Have a great weekend!


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Sterling hit the highest level against the euro for 8 months, but fell sharply against the US dollar after a torrid day on the markets which saw almost every major stock exchange sink deeply into the red as investors ran to safer assets. After a brief rally following the announcement of Silvio Berlusconi’s resignation, Italy’s borrowing costs surged to record levels as bond traders shunned the country’s debt and fled to safer options. Borrowing costs (yields) that are above 7% are generally seen as unsustainable and as such markets now expect Italy to need a bailout. This sent financial markets into a tail spin this afternoon and the UK’s prospects – whilst better than the euro zone – look bleak if the major trading partner of the UK grinds to a halt. Out later today we have the Bank of England’s monthly meeting so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, one of the major drivers of yesterday’s major movement on bond and currency markets was the announcement by euro zone officials that there were no plans for a financial rescue of Italy, which sent Italy’s borrowing costs skyrocketing as investors lost confidence that they would be repaid. The past 10 days is a reminder of what so many had feared – contagion. Greece was plastering the headlines last week and within 3 days, Italy is now the epicentre of the crisis. The euro sank to the lowest levels against the pound and US dollar in months. We are coming closer and closer to the fabled €1.20/£1 so call in now to take advantage if we see things move.

In the USA, stock markets tumbled on concerns over the European debt crisis with Italian borrowing costs seen as being at tipping point. Investors scrambled for US government bonds and cash which saw the US dollar strengthen significantly over the day – by over 1% against the pound. Call in now for a live price.

Elsewhere, China's annual inflation rate fell to 5.5% in October from 6.1% in September for a third straight month of decline from July's three-year peak and Premier Wen Jiabao said prices had fallen further since then. This fuelled expectations that China may start to loosen monetary policy as exporters feel the impact from slowing global growth. Call in now for a rate.


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Sterling strengthened against the euro and US dollar yesterday after solid economic data in the UK and further turmoil in the euro zone left the pound looking relatively good to investors. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research released data yesterday that showed that UK economic growth held steady at 0.5% in the 3 months to October. The figures helped calm fears that the economy could be heading back for recession. With the focus on Italy, the UK is perceived to have a much tighter grip on austerity measures than many of its counterparts across the globe. This is helping to boost demand for sterling so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, Rome has taken over from Athens as the focus of the euro zone debt crisis. Italian borrowing costs continued to surge, which means that the country could require a bailout that Europe cannot afford. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi lost his parliamentary majority in a budget vote yesterday increasing pressure on him to resign his position. If he does resign, we could see the euro regain ground against the US dollar and sterling as many feel a change of leadership is what is needed. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, stock markets were unchanged yesterday following the Italian vote that left the political situation looking rather cloudy in Europe – especially given the size of repayments that Italy has to make next year and the rate at which its borrowing costs are shooting up. Elsewhere, economic confidence dropped which is to be expected. Out later today, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks so call in now for a live rate.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar fell overnight against its major counterparts as investors pulled back holdings in the riskier currency. Market turmoil caused by the euro zone is good for sterling against the more minor currency pairings e.g. the South African rand. Call in now to ensure you take advantage.


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Sterling fell off earlier gains against the euro on Monday as it tracked the euro’s marginal gains against the US dollar. Sterling was looking fragile against the US dollar for much of the day as investors preferred the safe haven of the US currency on concerns over the outlook for the UK recovery. The pound should remain strong against the euro as investors look for an alternative to the euro during the European debt crisis – especially given moves made last week to start cutting interest rates in the region. House prices in the UK showed signs of recovery yesterday and out later today we have manufacturing and industrial production figures so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, European shares and the euro made a slight recovery as news emerged over the weekend that the political turmoil in Greece seems to have been resolved with the announcement that a new ‘government of national unity’ would be formed and the now infamous PM George Papandreou would resign. Elsewhere though, yields on Italian bonds – i.e. the interest rate that the nation needs to pay to borrow – hit record highs yesterday as investors became more and more concerned that the country would fail to implement austerity measures. Today sees a crucial confidence vote for Silvio Berlusconi. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar continues to benefit from demand for safe haven assets as investors shy away from the perceived ‘riskier currencies’. Out later today there is some economic optimism data which will give an insight into the economic prospects however the mainstay of any US dollar movement is likely to be related to the euro zone.

Elsewhere, Chinese manufacturing figures expanded in October which was a positive sign that the world’s economic powerhouse is not being unduly impacted by the euro zone crisis. Positive data in China is linked to stronger ‘commodity linked’ currency rates so call in to ensure you don’t lose out.



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Sterling fell against the US dollar on Friday as investors looked to the safe haven US dollar on fears over the euro zone crisis, with investors particularly worried about a confidence vote in Greece. Against the euro, sterling strengthened and held above €1.16/£1. Furthermore, analysts expect sterling to gain further ground as interest rates in the euro zone start to come down. The Bank of England meets later this week, but the outlook for monetary policy is looking relatively stable in the UK versus Europe, which could bode well for sterling against the single currency. Industrial activity measures could potentially be a slight worry this week and as such we could see a contraction in growth heading into the beginning of 2012. Later in the week we have wholesale price inflation figures so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, it was a turbulent week last week with the shock announcement of a referendum initially and with the announcement over the weekend that a new ‘government of national unity’ will be formed and Prime Minister George Papandreou will step down when the deal is finalised. Over the weekend it was also announced that the European Central Bank could stop buying Italian bonds if it concludes that the country is not adopting the necessary austerity measures. It is a relatively quiet week for data, but there is a meeting of European Finance Ministers today that could see some movement. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar strengthened against ‘riskier’ assets on Friday as investors positioned themselves against potential losses ahead of Friday night’s vote of confidence in Greek PM George Papandreou. The US currency is experiencing strength related to a lack of confidence in the global recovery and could yet see further strength in the coming weeks so call in now to avoid losing out.

Elsewhere, there is a wide array of data released in China which many analysts expect will lead to the Chinese authorities removing some of their more restrictive policies. In particular, inflation is expected to drop and industrial production is also set to fall. Exports to Europe only account for around 15% of Chinese exports so the euro zone crisis is not expected to have too much of an impact. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Sterling gained against the euro and recovered against the US dollar yesterday, spurred on by growing turmoil in the euro zone over Greece and a surprise move by the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. It has been a mixed week for data in the UK this week with better than expected growth and construction numbers, but poor services and manufacturing data. However, the main driver of sterling this week has been the ongoing crisis in the euro zone and the shock announcement on Monday that Greece will hold a referendum on the bail out. Call in now for a live exchange rate and take advantage of the volatility.

In the euro zone, Monday’s shock announcement by the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou sent panic through financial markets as a ‘no’ vote means that Greece would default on a large bond repayment in December and cripple financial markets. Whilst this was called off on Thursday, there is further political turmoil expected today with a strong chance that the PM will lose his majority. Concerns over high inflation in the region switched to concerns over growth yesterday as the new ECB President Mario Draghi announced his arrival at the ECB with a 0.25% rate cut. Volatility is set to remain high – call in and set a target price with on of the trading team.

In the USA, you might be forgiven for thinking that Europe has been the main focus for several weeks, but today sees the monthly release of key US data in the form of the ‘non-farm payrolls’ – seasonally adjusted employment figures that can have a large impact on economic expectations. Analysts are expecting a slight drop in the number of jobs added and expect the unemployment rate to remain at 9.1%. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, sterling has made significant gains against ‘riskier’ currencies such as the South African rand and Scandinavian currencies as investors pull out of risky trades in the face of the European crisis. If you have Australian or New Zealand dollars to buy too, this is potentially a good time to be thinking about doing just that. Have a great weekend.


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Sterling regained some of the ground it lost against the US dollar on Tuesday as the surge in demand for safe haven assets waned, however the pound failed to capitalise on its move towards €1.17/£1. UK construction activity figures beat expectations, showing expansion against an expected decline. This helped investors to have more faith in the UK recovery, but it is still very fragile and subject to further shocks in future. Out later today we have UK services sector activity which is a key figure – GDP growth numbers showed an expansion in this sector so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out if the data undershoots expectations.

In the euro zone, with the G20 meetings getting underway in Cannes today there will certainly be a lot to talk about. Following the shock announcement by Greek PM George Papandreou that Greece will hold a referendum on the EU bailout, it was announced last night that this is to be held on the 4th December. Greece has €8.1bn worth of bond redemptions due on the 19th December and lacks the funds (without the bailout) to repay these. If the country votes no, it will not receive any funding and default. This has the potential to cause chaos in the markets – ensure you call in to protect yourself over the coming months.

In the USA, the US dollar continues to trade in response to the global risk sentiment and the currency made modest gains following on from the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement which was broadly negative in its tone. There is key data released today so call in now for a live price.

Elsewhere, Scandinavian currencies and other risk based currencies have suffered as investors look elsewhere to invest on the news of the potential euro break down. Sterling has made gains across the board so call in now to speak to a trader for a price.

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Sterling surged to a one month high against the euro but slid against the US dollar as calls from Greek PM George Papandreou for a referendum on the EU bailout sent markets into chaos. Sterling fell just short of €1.17/ £1 as it hit €1.1697/£1 on the news. There was mixed data released in the UK yesterday, with manufacturing activity posting a sharp contraction against expectations leaving investors concerned over the UK recovery. UK GDP growth figures came in above expectations, showing 0.5% growth in the last quarter against an expectation of 0.4% however the data is notoriously inaccurate and subject to change at a later date. Yesterday is a prime example of why it is important to put a currency strategy in place to take advantage of large swings.

In the euro zone, Greek PM George Papandreou sent markets into a tail spin yesterday morning after calling for a referendum on the Greek bailout package. The implications of a potential ‘no’ vote are the likely bankruptcy of Greece and the country’s withdrawal from the euro – both of which are a worrying prospect. The euro did begin to recover slightly against the US dollar after Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel said they were committed to the deal agreed at last week’s EU summit. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, stock markets took a hammering yesterday as the shock announcement sent investors fleeing to safer assets. The US dollar was a major beneficiary of the sudden flight to safety and it made gains against most currencies – especially with the Japanese yen and Swiss franc effectively no longer safe haven currencies due to government intervention. The US dollar gained by around 2 cents against sterling. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 0.25% overnight into yesterday morning which helped to see sterling make gains against the currency. Sterling also strengthened against other ‘riskier’ currencies, breaking above ZAR 13.00/ £1 and NZ$2.00/ £1 against the South African rand and New Zealand dollar.

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Sterling hit the highest levels against the Japanese yen for 2 months after the Japanese authorities intervened to drive the yen lower. Against the US dollar, sterling came under pressure but held on to gains made on Friday and finished the day flat. The big move was against the euro, with sterling surging by close to 2%, hitting a high of €1.1594/£1 after yields (i.e. the borrowing costs paid) on Italian bonds surged – an indicator of investor fear over a potential Italian default as the country struggles to implement tough spending cuts. Out today there is house price data and the first estimate of 3rd quarter GDP for the UK so ensure you don’t lose out and call in to speak to one of the team.

In the euro zone, the euro fell against both the euro and US dollar on poor data and surging Italian bond yields. Figures showed Italian and European unemployment creeping up and lower than expected German retail sales figures. Data has been poor in the last month and many expect the European Central Bank’s meeting to be the main focus later in the week. If the ECB fails to take a looser stance with monetary policy we could see the euro lose ground. Call in now to take advantage of any favourable currency moves.

In the USA, the US dollar jumped to a 3 month high against the Japanese yen following Japan’s intervention in the currency markets over the weekend. Analysts estimated that the Bank of Japan intervened with a record $65-75bn in order to protect domestic exporters from record highs on the currency. The focus for the USA this week continues to be the Federal Reserve’s meeting that starts today. The Fed could potentially implement further monetary easing in the coming months, which could see the US dollar fall.

Elsewhere, tensions between China and the USA took another step yesterday as the USA accused China of failing to implement commitments over the opening of its financial services markets that it made 10 years ago in order to join the World Trade Organisation. The USA accused China of deliberately taking an unduly long time to approve requests by US companies to open branches in the country.

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Sterling gained against the US dollar on Friday afternoon in the wake of increased risk appetite following on from last week’s EU summit. The announcement that bondholders would take a 50% cut and that the EFSF would be boosted was given a positive endorsement by the markets, yet there are still further risks to come. The week ahead in the UK will see growth come back under the spotlight. Business surveys and the first estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP are expected to point towards to a weakening outlook, but last week saw improving figures on public finances which validates the coalition’s austerity measures. Volatility is expected to remain high so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the big news of last week was the EU summit which – after being postponed – delivered on its main goals; agreement from bondholders on a 50% ‘haircut’ to repayment amounts and an expansion of the EFSF. However, with little detail announced over the implementation of these measures, some analysts remain anxious. Growth will be back on the agenda in Europe as well this week with a G20 meeting and region-wide business activity figures. Ensure you don’t lose out and speak to one of the team today.

In the USA, last week saw solid 3rd Quarter GDP growth figures and the coming week is expected to show improving manufacturing surveys. We also have the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting and while no changes to monetary policy are expected, the meeting will give a good assessment of the Fed’s stance on the current outlook/ risks facing the US recovery. Friday sees the release of non-farm payroll data – a potential market mover. Call in to ensure you are protected.

Elsewhere, the Japanese government intervened over the weekend to weaken its currency after it hit a post-war high against the US dollar. The moves saw the currency weaken by as much as 5% as authorities moved in to prevent Japanese goods from being prohibitively expensive. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Sterling hit a 7 week high against the US dollar but dropped by around 1.5% against the euro as European leaders struck a deal on the euro zone debt crisis. The agreement saw risk appetite improve significantly and investors look to invest in the euro again. Sterling’s underperformance against the euro has been put down to a recent run of investors reversing ‘safe haven’ holdings in sterling as UK data underperformed and the Bank of England announced a 2nd round of Quantitative Easing. Sterling had held steady all week against the euro as investors awaited the results of the EU summit, however the announcement that came early 7 yesterday morning saw a large swing of volatility. One upside for sterling is that it may strengthen towards $1.63/£1 against the US dollar – call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro surged by 2% against the US dollar as investors traded on the optimism of the announcement of a solution to the euro zone debt crisis. After a night of deadlocked talks, markets hardly reacted at all, but when the US markets opened, the euro made ground breaking above $1.41/€1, coming within touching distance of $1.42/€1. Stock markets rallied around the world on the market optimism. Some analysts however are less than optimistic pointing to the lack of detail on implementation of the plan.

In the USA, with all eyes on Europe it was fairly easy to forget about important data released in the USA – 3rd Quarter GDP growth figures. The US economy grew at a pace that was expected by markets, delivering figures of 2.5% growth. This was boosted by an increase in consumer spending and other positive economic data, with unemployment claims decreasing by 2000 for the week. Call in now for a live exchange rate to avoid losing out.

Elsewhere, in other news this week, the New Zealand dollar strengthened against its counterparts as the central bank governor announced plans to potentially increase interest rates. The Japanese central bank announced a fresh round of 5 trillion yen’s worth of Quantitative Easing.

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Sterling fell off earlier highs against the US dollar yesterday as it followed the euro downwards against the US currency as markets nervously awaited the results from yesterday’s EU summit. After a night of deadlocked talks the EU summit finally delivered what most had been expecting – a 50% write down for holders of Greek bonds and a boost to the European Financial Stability Fund bringing it up to €1 trillion. Sterling is trading in a similar range as previous days this morning, but down against the euro as investors cautiously bought back into the euro on the news. There is limited data out today in the UK, so expect sterling to trade on market reaction to the summit.

In the euro zone, whilst there was an announcement that a decision had been reached on increasing the bailout fund and also recapitalising banks in the region to the tune of €106bn, there was no concrete plan for tackling the ballooning debt in less competitive European countries. After producing a (vague) austerity plan, Italian parliamentarians ended up brawling and grabbing each other’s throats – a photo that you will no doubt have seen by the end of today. Once again, the rhetoric was strong like most other EU summits, however there was a lack of detail that will see things drag on further. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts as investors felt happier taking risks. It was noticeable in the fact that the move was a gradual one – i.e. no-one is too sure what to make of the EU summit announcement, other than in principle it is a good thing. Cautious appetite for risk is likely to be the trading pattern today, so if you are buying US dollars, it may be a good time to do so. In addition, there was speculation yesterday that the Federal Reserve would announce another round of Quantitative Easing. Call in now for a live exchange rate – we could be in for further volatility today.

Elsewhere, Japan announced that it would expand its Quantitative Easing by another 5 trillion yen. This was in line with expectations and did lead to some yen buying. In addition, the New Zealand dollar strengthened as Reserve Bank Governor hinted at an interest rate increase.


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Sterling slipped against the US dollar, falling off a 6 week high as perceived ‘riskier’ currencies came under pressure on growing concerns over today’s EU summit. However, sterling was slightly higher against the euro, hovering around €1.15/£1 as optimism over a fully comprehensive solution slipped. Markets have overall been very quiet as investors tread water to see the results of the summit, with no-one willing to hold large positions in case the reaction causes large movements against them. This saw hardly any movement as Bank of England governor Mervyn King testified to the Treasury over the decision to restart Quantitative Easing this month. It is a relatively quiet day for data with the main focus being on the European summit so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, plans to announce a final rescue deal today seemingly hit further hiccups yesterday as it was announced that a key meeting of European economic and finance ministers has been delayed. This meeting would prepare the detail of any political decision, so the implication is that a full package will not be available to scrutiny today. Markets clung onto optimism that a solution will be reached, but the euro slipped away against the US dollar on poor US data. It goes without saying that today could be volatile so call in now to protect yourself.

In the USA, poor financial results from several companies combined with a sharp drop in consumer confidence figures to add to a cautious tone yesterday. Demand for US government bonds rose as investors looked for a safe haven ahead of today’s EU summit. In addition, the US dollar hovered around a record low against the Japanese yen on concerns over intervention by the Japanese authorities held back further purchases of the Japanese ultra-safe haven currency.

Elsewhere, the Vatican has finally waded into the debate over the credit crisis calling for sweeping reforms of financial markets and the creation of an ethical global authority to regulate financial markets.

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Sterling dropped against the US dollar yesterday, coming off a 6 week high of $1.6001/£1 as uncertainty over the European debt crisis put pressure on ‘riskier’ currencies. The poor appetite for risk and lack of any positive UK data meant that investors took profits from sterling’s earlier rally. With the UK exposed to the euro region, investors were increasingly negative over the pound’s prospects in the event that Wednesday’s announcement over the European debt crisis fails to deliver an effective solution. Out today we have UK current account data so call in now for a live exchange rate to ensure that you don’t lose out.

In the euro zone, the euro gained against the US dollar for most of the day as markets became cautiously optimistic about Wednesday’s announcement despite rumours of political bickering over the weekend and disagreement over several key parts of the package. Aside from the obvious focus on the debt crisis, there was mixed purchasing manager data from across the region which further added to the gloomy picture of European recovery. Call in now for a live exchange rate as there is likely to be further volatility surrounding Wednesday’s announcement.

In the USA, the US dollar was driven by risk appetite yesterday with US stocks performing well after positive earnings figures and a number of potential merger deals. The US dollar regained some of the ground lost earlier to the euro as doubts emerged surrounding the debt crisis package, however there was also some profit taking. Better than expected Chinese data helped ease concerns that the country’s economy was faltering and with many investors pinning their hopes on China to drive the global recovery this certainly helped.

Elsewhere, Japanese officials said that a strong yen was causing concern. Officials stated that the central bank would take action to curb excessive trading and speculative movements of the currency.


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Sterling strengthened to a 6 week high against the US dollar this morning as it tracked optimism that a deal would soon be reached to solve the European debt crisis. The weekend’s meetings of European officials (which had already been delayed by a week and was supposed to deliver a comprehensive solution by yesterday) has been met with cautious optimism by the markets, despite bickering and the postponement of the main announcement. Prime Minister David Cameron had issued a stark warning that the crisis was having a “chilling effect” on growth. In terms of data, it is a relatively quiet week with UK current account figures being the biggest event tomorrow. In addition, a number of policymakers from the Bank of England are making speeches which are likely to be followed closely.

In the euro zone, cracks appeared to be showing in Europe’s recent show of solidarity as politicians bickered and yet again pushed back the deadline for presenting a solution to the euro zone crisis. The divisions seem to revolve around the level of the ‘haircut’ required by holders of Greek government bonds. Several members are pushing for a 50% cut against the 21% that was announced in July. Despite the announcement of a ‘comprehensive solution’ being delayed yet again, markets are quite optimistic and as a result the euro has strengthened this morning. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, the US dollar has come under pressure over the last few days as reports suggested that the Federal Reserve was preparing for a new round of Quantitative Easing and optimism over a potential debt deal for the euro zone built. This week we have consumer confidence, new home sales and advance GDP figures so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

Elsewhere, oil prices fell on the news of Colonel Gadaffi’s death on the expectation that oil production would be back to pre-conflict levels. This is unlikely to happen overnight, but supply should improve. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

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Sterling fell after an earlier rally against the US dollar yesterday, but gained against the euro after investors questioned how much progress would be made in the European debt crisis over the weekend. Sterling got an earlier boost against the US dollar as an unexpected jump in retail sales in the UK saw a short-lived rally die out following the view that this would do little to change the faltering UK recovery’s prospects. Sales rose by 0.6% but sterling is being bogged down by the possibility of more Quantitative Easing. Minutes from the Bank of England’s meeting this week showed the distinct possibility of further easing in the medium term. Call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

In the euro zone, the euro has had a very volatile week ahead of Sunday’s European summit as traders speculated whether the summit will deliver a decisive solution to solve the region’s debt crisis. The ebb and flow between optimism over a comprehensive solution has contrasted with market rumours over German scepticism – especially from the country’s finance minister, leaving a very choppy market this week. This is set to continue into next week and no-one really knows the impact that the summit will have. If markets approve sterling could plummet (albeit briefly) against the euro, but if they do not, we could see a run into the 1.15’s. Ensure you are prepared and why not consider an order to buy to take advantage if the rate does move.

In the USA, data released earlier in the week showed that consumer prices increased by 0.3% but the ‘core’ (i.e. inflation that excludes volatile energy) price inflation only increased by 0.1%. Unemployment figures crept up slightly, but the major driver of the US dollar has been the market expectations with regards to the euro zone. The US dollar strengthened by 0.6% against the euro yesterday. There is serious volatility so ensure you speak to one of the team to ensure you are protected.

Elsewhere, sterling did make gains against ‘riskier’ commodity based currencies – notably the South African rand. Sterling gained by 2% to hit the highest levels against the rand since November 2009. It therefore goes without saying that if you need to buy South African rand, now is a great time.

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Sterling hit a one month high against the US dollar yesterday, helped by improved investor sentiment towards riskier assets. However, the rally ran out of steam as sterling broke through $1.58/£1 and investors took profits. Sterling strengthened despite minutes from the recent Bank of England meeting that showed real concern about the economic environment internationally – in particular the euro zone. In the medium term, sterling is likely to suffer as growth stagnates around the world. Out later today we have retail sales data that is expected to show no growth on last month as the impact of increasing energy bills bites. Call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the euro zone, the euro strengthened across the board on renewed hope that Sunday’s European summit will deliver a decisive solution to solve th region’s debt crisis. Optimism over the potential plan saw a euro rally that has continued despite the downgrade of Spain’s credit rating by rating agency Moody’s and attempts by the German finance minister to play down the optimism over Sunday’s meeting. Out today there is consumer confidence figures so call in now for a live exchange rate.

In the USA, data released yesterday showed that consumer prices increased by 0.3% but the ‘core’ (i.e. inflation that excludes volatile energy) price inflation only increased by 0.1%. The slower growth was to all extent ignored by the markets as investors focus on Europe. Out later today, we have unemployment claims figures, existing home sales figures and manufacturing figures so call in now to ensure you don’t lose out.

Elsewhere, a group of US governors visiting China skirted round the issue of bi-lateral trade frictions and instead focussed on pitching for investment that they hope will boost the fragile recovery back in the USA. The US senate approved a bill last week to put pressure on China to increase the value of the yuan that the USA feels gives it an international price advantage by between 15-40%. Call in now to speak to a trader.

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