So 2011 is coming to a close and for most is best forgotten. A strange year as it started with the expectation that the UK economy would continue to move forward albeit at a low rate of growth. But as the year comes to a close, the hope is that we will avoid another recession in 2012. The likelihood of any increases in UK interest rates also seems remote as the banks need to restore their balance sheets before allowing funds to be lent to fund economic growth.

This week sterling has lost ground across the board. Post Christmas retail sales went better than expected but there is no doubt margins were significantly reduced as the retailers made a dash for cash. The fear is that further quantitative easing will be required in early 2012 to help boost the UK economy.

Two Italian debt issuances were completed this week. Both were successful although the interest rate was close to 7% for the longer dated bonds. This is the interest rate which is viewed as the tipping point between the debt being affordable or it being unsustainable. These successful debt issuance helped the euro pull back from its 11 month low against sterling. The US$ had a good week benefitting from its safe haven status and an economy that is moving forward at a quicker rate than in Europe.

From all of us here at Smart we wish you all the very best for 2012 and hope that you have the best of health and a highly prosperous year as well.

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