Wednesday, 29 February 2012

An okay day for sterling yesterday holding its own or even gaining against some currencies. The UK Confederation of British Industry (CBI) figures showed that the level of consumer spending in the UK was much better than predicted climbing to an eight month high. Out today the main UK release is the Inflation Report and one of the members of the Bank of England is also speaking. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In Europe yesterday, the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index CPI figures released were better than expected and data revealed that the general economic confidence in the Euro zone has improved more than markets had anticipated. In other news, Ireland has decided to hold a referendum on whether or not to sign the European Fiscal Treaty which will enforce tighter budget rules for Ireland and the other Euro zone nations. It would appear that the vote is effectively a decision whether or not to stay in the euro. The main news out of Europe today will be the result of the parliamentary elections in both Finland and the Netherlands. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US today, the markets were shocked by the poor durable goods data released; however, the consumer confidence figures were better than the markets had anticipated and have reached the highest level in a year. Preliminary GDP data is released out of the states today and following the announcement the Chairman of the Federal bank will testify providing further insight into the world’s largest economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank Governing Board’s Interim Chairman was speaking yesterday; but, surprisingly didn't mention the €1.20/Chf1 peg which is still under threat; whilst the unemployment data released came in as expected. Out late last night and first thing this morning a raft of data was released including business confidence figures from New Zealand, retails sales data from Australia and Switzerland’s economic barometer figures. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.


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Tuesday, 28 February 2012

There was very little data out of the UK yesterday with sterling weakening against the commodity backed currencies as risk appetite drove the market and holding its own against the euro and the US$. The only significant data released today is the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) figures which will provide some insight on the level of consumer spending in the UK. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

After a turbulent few days the euro had a quiet day losing a little of ground against the US$ and sterling. The German parliament approved the 2nd Greek bailout yesterday. The Euro zone as a region awaits the result of further parliamentary votes including Finland’s vote on Wednesday. The G20 ministers (ministers form the 20 major global economies) are calling on Europe to put up more money to strengthen its own firewall before discussing the other nation’s contributions to the International Monetary Fund. The potential increase of the €500 billion Euro zone bailout firewall (the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)) is due to be discussed at the Euro zone summit meeting on March 1-2; however, the final decision is not expected to be made until much later in month. Standard and Poor’s one of the big three credit rating agency has also changed its outlook for the EFSF to negative yesterday as a result of the on-going developments. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US yesterday, pending home sales figures released were a better than estimated complimenting the positive sentiment surrounding the US economic recovery at present. Out today consumer confidence data is released as well as figures showing the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, there was very little data released yesterday. The Japanese yen had a strong day gaining against most currencies. This was after a period of weakening following the Bank of Japan’s intervention to weaken the yen. Today’s main releases both come from Switzerland where unemployment figures are released and the Swiss National Bank Governing Board’s Interim Chairman will speak and help to provide some insight on the state of the economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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There was very little data out of the UK yesterday with sterling weakening against the commodity backed currencies as risk appetite drove the market and holding its own against the euro and the US$. The only significant data released today is the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) figures which will provide some insight on the level of consumer spending in the UK. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

After a turbulent few days the euro had a quiet day losing a little of ground against the US$ and sterling. The German parliament approved the 2nd Greek bailout yesterday. The Euro zone as a region awaits the result of further parliamentary votes including Finland’s vote on Wednesday. The G20 ministers (ministers form the 20 major global economies) are calling on Europe to put up more money to strengthen its own firewall before discussing the other nation’s contributions to the International Monetary Fund. The potential increase of the €500 billion Euro zone bailout firewall (the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)) is due to be discussed at the Euro zone summit meeting on March 1-2; however, the final decision is not expected to be made until much later in month. Standard and Poor’s one of the big three credit rating agency has also changed its outlook for the EFSF to negative yesterday as a result of the on-going developments. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US yesterday, pending home sales figures released were a better than estimated complimenting the positive sentiment surrounding the US economic recovery at present. Out today consumer confidence data is released as well as figures showing the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, there was very little data released yesterday. The Japanese yen had a strong day gaining against most currencies. This was after a period of weakening following the Bank of Japan’s intervention to weaken the yen. Today’s main releases both come from Switzerland where unemployment figures are released and the Swiss National Bank Governing Board’s Interim Chairman will speak and help to provide some insight on the state of the economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Monday, 27 February 2012

Revised GDP data released on Friday confirmed that the UK economy shrank in the fourth quarter of 2012 underlining the sentiment that the road to recovery will be slow. The market expectation is that we will see slight growth next quarter meaning the UK will avoid a technical recession; however, there is still a great deal of uncertainty. The main releases this week include manufacturing and construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) as well as data revealing the change in the price of homes in the UK. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

A meeting of the 20 largest industrial nations [G20] meetings was held over the weekend where officials worked on plans to increase funds to the global rescue package. It is understood that an increased input from the Euro zone governments must be delivered in the next two months if all of the G20 nations are to provide the IMF with more money. Data out of Europe this week includes German retail sales, Euro zone wide unemployment figures and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US, figures released on Friday showed that the purchases of new homes exceeded January’s expectations providing further evidence that the US recovery is gathering pace. There is a raft of data out of the US this week which includes preliminary GDP data, unemployment data and the chairman of the Federal Bank is also speaking which will provide more insight into the world’s largest economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, there was not much data out on Friday; however, late last night New Zealand posted an unexpected trade deficit with exports falling to a four month low. This week’s main data includes Canadian GDP data, Chinese manufacturing PMI figures and a raft of data out of Australia. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Friday, 24 February 2012

This week has seen sterling weaken against the majority of currencies amid concerns that we could see further quantitative easing above the £50 billion announced at the start of February. The Bank of England’s minutes released this week showed that two of its members voted for the injection of £75 billion. On a more positive note, public sector net borrowing figures released at the start of the week suggest that the UK will beat its own targets to cut the national deficit this year. Out today the market will look towards the revised GDP data to provide some clarity on the state of the UK economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In Europe, early on Tuesday morning the second Greek bailout was finally agreed bringing some respite to European markets as it appears Greece will avoid defaulting in the near term at least. Yesterday saw stronger than expected Germany Information and Forschung (IFO) data released demonstrating the feeling that the German economy will remain strong despite the ongoing problems in Europe. Moreover, the Greek parliament has taken its first step towards securing the now agreed €130 billion bailout by signing off on the bond swap agreement for private investors which is due to start today. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US, there has not been a great deal of data released this week; however, the release of unemployment claims data yesterday showed that the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week was at the lowest since March 2008. Housing data released yesterday also beat estimates reaffirming that the recovery in the US is starting to pick up pace. Out today the main release out of the US is the new home sales figures. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the main news our this week came from China, where the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio to boost lending and manufacturing. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI ) figures released showed a contraction for the fourth straight month providing further suggestion that the Chinese economy is slowing down. In Australia the central bank’s minutes showed that the bank would still consider cutting interest rates if demand conditions weakened despite keeping the rate being kept on hold at 4.25% the week before. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Thursday, 23 February 2012

Sterling had a torrid day losing ground against the majority of currencies following the release of the Bank of England monetary policy committee meeting minutes. Sterling ended the day at a 2 month low against the euro and lost over a cent and a half against the dollar. The Bank of England’s minutes unexpectedly revealed that two policy makers had voted for an even greater expansion to the asset purchase program calling for an extra £25 billion to be injected into the UK’s economy. This news resulted in sterling weakening across the board as the markets speculated that further quantitative easing could soon be on the way. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In Europe, weak Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released yesterday sirprised the global markets as both the services and manufacturing sectors contracted suggesting that a recession in Europe could soon follow. Whilst the German services and manufacturing sectors are still expanding; unfortunately, the figures fell short of the markets expectations. The most positive news out of Europe yesterday was the unexpected expansion of the French manufacturing sector. Fitch, one of the three major credit rating agencies has downgraded Greece to its lowest rating above a default and the other credit rating agencies are expected to follow suit despite the new €130 billion bailout being agreed. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US, figures released yesterday showed that the number of previously owned houses sold in the US increased; but, at a slower rate than expected. The main release today is the unemployment claims figures which are expected to show a decrease in the number of people filing for unemployment insurance in the last week supporting the employment led recovery we have seen in recent weeks. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, manufacturing PMI data out of China showed a contraction for the fourth straight month providing further suggestion that the Chinese economy is slowing down. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Yesterday, the markets sought to digest the news that the €130 billion bailout for Greece had finally been signed. The deal which was confirmed early on Tuesday morning resulted in a fairly volatile day with sterling finishing the day weaker against the euro. The UK’s public sector net borrowing figures came in better than the markets had anticipated showing the biggest budget surplus in four years. The surplus was a result of higher than expected tax receipts in January and the suggestion is that the UK will beat its own targets to cut the national deficit. Out today the Bank of England monetary policy committee meeting minutes will provide details on how the members voted on both the interest rate decision and the asset purchase facility which resulted in the injection of another £50 billion into the UK’s economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Following the announcement that the Euro zone had agreed the second Greek bail out there was knee jerk reaction in favour of the euro; however, the trend lost momentum throughout the day. Some important points from the deal include the requirement for Greece to reduce its debt to 120.5% of GDP by 2020 from over 164% where it currently stands. Private sector investors were also expected to occur loses of 53.5% on the Greek bonds they held. Moreover, the 3 year loan package of €130 billion is dependent on the conditions set out being met on an on-going basis otherwise later tranches will be withheld. This saga is far from over. With regards to actual data releases yesterday, the Euro zone consumer confidence figures came in as expected. Out today the main data released is the French, German and Euro-wide manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

There was very little data out in the US yesterday; but, US equities were buoyed by the announcement that Greece had signed its second bailout package .The main release today is the existing home sales which is expected to show a slight increase in the number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell shortly after the central bank released its minutes which included the suggestion that the bank would still consider cutting interest rates if demand conditions weakened. Switzerland’s trade balance figures were announced yesterday which were worse than expected. Moreover, Canada’s retail sales were also lower than anticipated. The main release today is the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from China released first thing in the morning. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.



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Tuesday, 21 February 2012

There was very little data released yesterday with the US banks closed in observance of Presidents Day. The markets were jittery in anticipation of the release of positive news regarding Greece which drove sterling weaker against the euro. The main data out of the UK today is the release of Public Sector Net Borrowing figures. With tax receipts higher than expected for the Inland Revenue in January it will interesting to see if we are seeing reduced on-going requirements. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The euro was buoyed yesterday by the markets optimism that a bailout would finally be secured. Talks began in Brussels yesterday afternoon between the Euro zone finance ministers as they tried to piece together the rescue package Greece needed to avoid defaulting. Final agreement was reached late in the night. However, the sentiment was not all positive as doubts still exist as to Greece’s long term economic viability. In Europe today there is very little data released aside from the consumer confidence figures as markets will look to digest any further development regarding Greece. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

It was Presidents Day in the US so trading volumes were down due to the bank holiday. The US dollar was broadly lower due to the Chinese rate cut and the increased positive sentiment surrounding Greece. There is very little data out of the US again today. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, China’s central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio to boost lending. This is the second cut in two months and more are expected which suggests weak growth expectations from China. The main releases today include the minutes from the Australian monetary policy meeting and the inflation expectations from New Zealand released first thing this morning. Later on today Canada releases its retail sales figures. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Monday, 20 February 2012

On Friday, retail sales figures were released in the UK with the data coming in much better than expected. There is very little economic data released across the World today plus there is a bank holiday in the US. Therefore the focus will be firmly on the EU finance meeting in Brussels this afternoon. This week the main data out of the UK is public sector net borrowing, revised GDP data and the MPC meeting minutes which will shed some more light on the Bank of England’s view on the state of the UK economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

On Friday in Europe, the German Chancellor, Italian Prime Minister and the Greek Prime Minister held a conference call and indicated strongly that the bailout package will be finalised at today’s EU finance meeting. The Greek prime minister has also stated that it has found the extra €325 million in cuts demanded by the EU before the bailout could be approved. The private sector investment bond swap still needs to be finalised which is expected to reduce the Greek debt by about €100 billion. This week the focus remains on the much hoped for conclusion to the Greek bailout package. It has to remembered talks have now been running for 7 months and the damage to business confidence and economic growth have been significant. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in as expected; but, CPI data was worse than expected showing consumer prices have climbed less than expected. The Core CPI figures reveal the fastest pace of growth since September 2008. This week there is more unemployment data out of the US and home sales data is also released. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

There was a raft of better than expected Canadian data on Friday which included Canadian Core CPI figures released at a level more favourable than analysts had predicted. This week the minutes from the Australian monetary policy meeting will provide insight into the surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%. The other main releases include the inflation expectations from New Zealand and the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data in China. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Friday, 17 February 2012

This week saw sterling strengthen against the euro due to the uncertainty surrounding the Greek bailout package being approved in time before default day on March 20. The Confederation of British Industry was positive about the UK forecasting that the UK will avoid a recession and that the recovery will gain momentum during the year. The negative news was unemployment figures rising to 2.67million and the number of people claiming jobseeker’s allowance increasing more than expected. Moreover, Moody’s (one of the big 3 credit rating agencies) has put the UK’s AAA rating on a negative outlook suggesting that there is a one in 3 chance of a downgrade in the next 12-18 months. This would affect the government’s ability to borrow at preferential interest rates. The Governor of the Bank of England also stated that the UK economy faced “substantial headwinds” that are “hampering our recovery and rebalancing". Out today in the UK the release of retails sales figures will provide further insight into the state of our fragile economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The euro was under pressure this week as the market’s eyes were fixated on the news surrounding the second bailout for Greece. Deadlines set throughout the week were continuously missed. A meeting scheduled for Euro-area finance chiefs on Wednesday has been postponed till Monday due to concerns that the Greek’s proposed austerity package had not yet met the required conditions. Also the President to the group of Euro zone finance ministers said “further considerations are necessary”. This week Moody’s also cut the debt ratings of six European countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal whilst placing France and Austria on a negative outlook; however, the European Financial Stability Facility's (EFSF) kept its AAA rating. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The US$ had a steady week against sterling. The Obama administration produce its US$8 trillion budget plan which may be more political posturing rather than reality as we are in an election year. Better than expected jobless claims data were released yesterday with figures showing that the numbers of claims have fallen to a four year low supporting the raft of positive data from the US labour market in recent times. Statistics produced yesterday also showed that housing starts rose more than expected and building permits also increased; however, Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in worse than expected. The main data out of the US is the release of the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the main news this week revolved around Japan’s stimulus expansion adding 10 trillion yen to its asset purchase program increasing its total to 30 trillion yen (£245 Billion) as its economy continues to shrink. The Bank of Japan also kept its base interest rate unchanged, target 1% inflation and kept the credit lending program at 35 trillion yen. China has pledged to inject money into the European bailout fund to support its own troubled export market. Yesterday saw much better than expected unemployment data released in Australia resulting in short term Australian dollar strength in the early hours before retracing as the markets looked toward Greece. The main data of note released later today is the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) which the market hopes will produce better figures than the weak factory sales data released yesterday. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Thursday, 16 February 2012

Sterling reached its highest price in a week against the euro amid on-going concerns over the Greek bailout. Here in the UK unemployment increased by 48,000 between October and December to 2.67million which was in line with expectations. The number of people claiming jobseeker’s allowance also rose by 6,900 to 1.6 million, which is the highest it has been since January 2010. The poor unemployment data alongside evidence that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter is fuelling claims that the government has tried to cut the deficit too quickly. The Bank of England also hinted at the potential for more Quantitative Easing due to the quarterly inflation report presenting new, higher inflation forecasts. The Governor of the Bank of England stated that the UK economy faced “substantial headwinds” that are “hampering our recovery and rebalancing," Economic data is fairly light in the UK today as the markets look for any developments surrounding Greece Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The Euro weakened against the majority of currencies as further concerns arose with regards to the potential second bailout for Greece. Rumours have been circulating that certain Euro zone governments have lost confidence that Greece can adhere to its promises. Apparently proposals were being discussed to potentially delay part or the entire Greek package. The Euro zone’s economy contracted in the last quarter of 2011; but, the German economy shrank by less than expected and the French economy unexpectedly grew showing that whilst there is the potential of a mild recession on the horizon, there is also the potential for growth in the first quarter of this year. Not much data is released in Europe today as the focus remains firmly on Greece. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US, data released yesterday showed that the balance of domestic and foreign investment was worse than expected. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting have also suggested that the Federal Bank may need to consider increasing its asset purchasing facility if the economy lost momentum. A raft of data is released in the US today including unemployment claims, building permits and Producer Price Index (PPI); furthermore, the Chairman of the Federal Bank is talking, all of which can provide some form of insight in to the world's largest economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, stronger than expected retail sales data was released in New Zealand strengthening the New Zealand dollar with the GBP/NZD rate challenging its record low from August 2011 and the EUR/NZD rate reaching a fresh all-time low. The main data released today is the unemployment statistics for Australia. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Wednesday, 15 February 2012

Sterling lost ground when Moody’s, one of the big 3 credit rating agencies, put the UK’s AAA rating on a negative outlook due to its exposure to the Euro zone debt crisis meaning there is a one in 3 chance of a downgrade in the next 12-18 months. The effect of a downgrade is open to debate in the current world we live in but in normal times it would mean that the interest that is paid on government debt would increase. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released as expected showing a fall to a 14 month low. The Governor of the Bank of England explained the decision to inject an additional 50 billion pounds into the UK’s economy was based on the Bank of England’s view that there was a “downside” risk of inflation slowing too far past the 2% target and stating that “CPI inflation will continue to fall back to around the target by the end of 2012.” Out today the Bank of England Inflation Report and the Governor from the Bank of England will provide more insight into the Banks view of economic conditions. Furthermore, data released will show the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In Europe, Moody’s cut the debt ratings of six European countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal whilst placing France and Austria on a negative outlook; however, the European Financial Stability Facility's (EFSF) kept its AAA rating. German investor confidence (which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance) was much better than expected rising to a 10-month high and Italy’s borrowing costs fell. The German Finance Minister said that Europe is now better prepared for a Greek default than it was two years ago which went some way to reassure the market. The Chairman of the Euro group announced that the scheduled meeting today for Euro-area finance chiefs has been postponed until next Monday. Not all of the paperwork on Greece is ready and the Euro group are still waiting for assurances from the leaders of the Greek coalition parties that the austerity measures will be implemented. Once more, another deadline has not been met; however, the default day deadline of March 20 cannot be postponed. On a slightly more positive note, China has again stated that they are preparing for further involvement in helping Europe. The economic calendar is fairly light in Europe today as the world looks for any developments surrounding Greece. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US, data released showed that retail sales rose at a rate below estimates with an unexpected drop in the purchases of automobiles driving the figures lower. As well as data showing the balance of domestic and foreign investment released today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its minutes in the evening providing an insight into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Call now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan’s stimulus expansion was the most notable news adding 10 trillion yen to its asset purchase program increasing its total to 30 trillion yen (£245 Billion). The Bank of Japan also kept its base interest rate unchanged, target 1% inflation and kept the credit lending program at 35 trillion yen. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Sterling lost ground when Moody’s, one of the big 3 credit rating agencies, put the UK’s AAA rating on a negative outlook due to its exposure to the Euro zone debt crisis meaning there is a one in 3 chance of a downgrade in the next 12-18 months. The effect of a downgrade is open to debate in the current world we live in but in normal times it would mean that the interest that is paid on government debt would increase. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released as expected showing a fall to a 14 month low. The Governor of the Bank of England explained the decision to inject an additional 50 billion pounds into the UK’s economy was based on the Bank of England’s view that there was a “downside” risk of inflation slowing too far past the 2% target and stating that “CPI inflation will continue to fall back to around the target by the end of 2012.” Out today the Bank of England Inflation Report and the Governor from the Bank of England will provide more insight into the Banks view of economic conditions. Furthermore, data released will show the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In Europe, Moody’s cut the debt ratings of six European countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal whilst placing France and Austria on a negative outlook; however, the European Financial Stability Facility's (EFSF) kept its AAA rating. German investor confidence (which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance) was much better than expected rising to a 10-month high and Italy’s borrowing costs fell. The German Finance Minister said that Europe is now better prepared for a Greek default than it was two years ago which went some way to reassure the market. The Chairman of the Euro group announced that the scheduled meeting today for Euro-area finance chiefs has been postponed until next Monday. Not all of the paperwork on Greece is ready and the Euro group are still waiting for assurances from the leaders of the Greek coalition parties that the austerity measures will be implemented. Once more, another deadline has not been met; however, the default day deadline of March 20 cannot be postponed. On a slightly more positive note, China has again stated that they are preparing for further involvement in helping Europe. The economic calendar is fairly light in Europe today as the world looks for any developments surrounding Greece. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US, data released showed that retail sales rose at a rate below estimates with an unexpected drop in the purchases of automobiles driving the figures lower. As well as data showing the balance of domestic and foreign investment released today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its minutes in the evening providing an insight into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Call now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan’s stimulus expansion was the most notable news adding 10 trillion yen to its asset purchase program increasing its total to 30 trillion yen (£245 Billion). The Bank of Japan also kept its base interest rate unchanged, target 1% inflation and kept the credit lending program at 35 trillion yen. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Tuesday, 14 February 2012

The Confederation of British Industry portrayed a positive sentiment towards the UK’s economy yesterday suggesting that the UK would avoid a technical recession and that the recovery will gain momentum this year which should eliminate the need for more quantitative easing. We will wait to see if the Governor from the Bank of England supports this sentiment later in the week. Out today in the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is released providing information on the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The economic calendar on Monday was relatively light in Europe as the spotlight remains firmly on the developments in Greece. Violent protests broke out over the weekend as approximately 100’000 people took to the streets. The first of several necessary votes was passed over the weekend with the Greek parliament approving the austerity measures put forward by the prime minister. Greece now needs the Private Sector Investors (PSI) bond swap deal to be agreed and then the EU needs to approve everything before it can secure the new €130 billion bailout. The market will look towards Wednesdays supposed deadline day when the Euro-area finance chiefs will meet to discuss the proposed bailout once more before Euro governments will then hold parliamentary votes. Given the history of this bailout to date it will be a surprise if everything goes smoothly. Today see’s German economic sentiment data released. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US, The Obama administration sent its $3.8 trillion budget plan to congress yesterday. The budget predicts growth of 2.7% this year and focuses on the importance of creating more jobs and reducing the growing national deficit which has been estimated to reach $1.33 trillion. Out today the key release is the US retail sales data. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, data released yesterday showed that Japanese economy shrank more than expected. This will encourage the Bank of Japan officials to consider reassessing its monetary policy with a statement expected early this morning. In Australia, data released showed that the change in the number of new home loans granted increased more than expected. As well as the news out of Japan, today sees the release of retail sales figures for New Zealand. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Monday, 13 February 2012

A raft of UK economic data is released this week but I imagine it will be the on-going Greek debt crisis which will dominate the news for the next few days. Data released on Friday showed that the change in price of goods sold by factories in the UK rose at their fastest rate in nine months. Data released this week includes the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) – (the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers), unemployment and retail sales figures and inflation, with the latter expected to show a fall from 4.2% to 3.4%. The Governor from the Bank of England is also making a speech which should explain the logic behind the further £50 billion of quantitative easing announced last weel. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

On Friday and throughout the weekend we saw continued unrest in Greece as thousands of people protested at the proposed austerity measures put forward by the government including €325 million in additional cuts from this year’s budget. Over the weekend the Greek cabinet and their parliament approved the new measures. Matters are being cut fine for the €130 billion bailout as February 15 is pencilled in as a dead line for negotiations to be completed so as to allow time for the legal procedures to be completed before the default day on March 20. Economic data this week should highlight how the euro zone slipped into a downturn in the final quarter of 2011. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US on Friday, consumer confidence data and trade balance figures were released which were worse than expected. This dampened slightly the positive sentiment of economic growth that had been coming from the US. This week see’s a fair amount of information released including CPI data, more unemployment data and the Chairman of the Federal Bank is also speaking. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere on Friday saw Canadian and Chinese trade balance data released which was better than expected. This week see’s the release of unemployment data in Australia, retails sales data for New Zealand, CPI data for Canada and growth figures for Japan. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Friday, 10 February 2012

This week saw sterling weaken off against the euro as finalisation of the Greek 130 billion euro bailout enters the final straight. A string of good data was released yesterday morning with manufacturing production, industrial production and trade balance data all coming out better than expected. The Bank of England confirmed market predictions by agreeing to pump another 50 billion pounds into the UK’s economy whilst keeping interest rate levels at 0.5%. The injection of more money should increase the UK’s protection from the threat Europe’s debt crisis poses on the UK’s economy. The Prime Minister stated his belief that quantitative easing is the right way to go because it supports growth, investment and lending. Out today is the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) which reflects on the change in price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The focus remained firmly on Greece this week with continued delays on a deal being finalised for their 130 billion euro bailout. Yesterday, the Greek party leaders finally reached an agreement on the austerity measures needed for this bailout. The world’s eyes then looked towards Brussels last night where Euro zone finance ministers must decide whether Greece has done enough so that they can approve the bailout before the austerity measures are then subject to a vote in the Greek parliament. In other news, Standard and Poor’s stated that there was a 1 in 3 chance of a credit rating cut in most Euro nations debt. The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold yesterday at 1% as was widely anticipated. Out today European data is fairly scarce with the focus remaining firmly on the potential for further developments in Greece. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The US saw more positive unemployment data released yesterday supporting the Chairman of the Federal Bank’s comments from earlier in the week suggesting that the labour market had improved. Today the US see’s the release of trade balance and consumer confidence data; furthermore, the Chairman of the Federal Bank is speaking again to provide more insight into the state of the world’s largest economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the main news this week was the surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25% and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting its growth forecasts for China The New Zealand dollar declined yesterday after government figures showed weak jobs growth; but, headline unemployment rate fell more than expected. There was a notable jump in Chinese inflation which was much higher than markets expected. Significant data released today includes the trade balances of China, Switzerland and Canada. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Thursday, 9 February 2012

Yesterday in the UK we saw another reason to potentially expect more quantitative easing from the Bank of England as the shop price index data came in worse than expected. The anticipation of a further round of quantitative easing later on today weighed heavily on sterling as it weakened across board. It is still highly anticipated that a 50 billion pound increase in the Bank of England’s asset purchases will be announced. Interest rates are expected to remain at 0.5%. The yield on 10 year Government bonds also reached a two month high yesterday. In more positive news, Standard and Poor’s (one of the three main credit rating agencies) said that the UK has benefited from a floating exchange rate suggesting we have faired better thought the global economic crisis by not being part of the euro. Manufacturing data in the UK is released this morning; but, the main focus will remain on Greece and the Bank of England’s decision on its asset purchase program and official bank rate. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The Eurozone yesterday saw yet more delays in Greece as the deadline was once again surpassed on Tuesday night for the Prime Minister to agree terms with the leaders of the other political parties. The Prime minister also held an unscheduled meeting on Tuesday night with the “Troika”, comprising the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to try and put the final touches on terms required for a 130 billion euro rescue package. We wait to see if these plans can finally be settled today. Alarmingly, Standard and Poor’s stated that there was a 1 in 3 chance of a rating cut in most Euro nations; but, this does not include Germany. Rumours yesterday also suggested that China may be looking to “move shortly” to help Europe resolve its debt crisis by providing as much as 100 billion euro’s. German trade balance came in slightly better than expected and the French central government balance was released as the markets had anticipated. Out today the European Central Bank interest rate decision will be announced. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Little data was released in the US with the worlds focus remaining on Greece. One of the members of the Federal bank was speaking where amongst many things stated that the US doesn’t need to raise tax or to make drastic cuts at present. He also reiterated some of The Chairman of the Federal Bank comments from Tuesday stating that the economy has performed "pretty" well and that job growth was good for the time being; however, he also mentioned that the US is "clearly on unsustainable path" of deficits and that the fiscal issue is the "biggest" long-term challenge that the US faces. Standard and Poor’s also stated that the US has a one-in-three chance of another downgrade due to the he government’s failure to agree on a path to reduce its deficit. Out today in the US see’s the release of yet more unemployment data which the market hopes will replicate the positive unemployment data out last Friday. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere yesterday saw the Swiss unemployment rate come in as expected. Japanese economic sentiment came in worse than expected; but, the number of new houses that began construction in Canada came in better than forecasts predicted. Out first thing this morning is the release of Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and household consumer confidence in Switzerland. Throughout the day there is not much data released apart from more Canadian housing data. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Wednesday, 8 February 2012

There was very little data out in the UK yesterday as the market looked towards any potential developments in Greece. The Chairman of the US Federal Bank was also speaking yesterday. Sterling weakened against the euro and the Swiss franc as rumours circulated surrounding finalisation of the current Greek bailout package. Very little data out in the UK today as the market once more awaits developments in Europe and tomorrows meeting of the Bank of England. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the Euro zone yesterday the main focus remains on Greece. The euro strengthened across the board due to a Greek government official stating that Greece was working on a final bailout document. The Greek Prime Minister was also due to meet with party leaders at 19:00GMT last night and the expectation was that an announcement would follow covering the details of a loan deal. Greece must complete the full package by February 15 to allow time for the legal procedures to be completed before the potential default day on March 20. Data released yesterday confirmed that the French trade gap had widened to record levels; but, the figures were actually better than many had expected. German industrial production data was also released which came in much worse than expected. The German Finance Minister sought to quash rumours that had been circulating, categorically stating that Germany and France are not working towards pushing Greece out of the EU; however, he did confirm that Germany opposes adding to Greek bailout and that €130 billion is the limit. Out today there is data on the German trade balance and French Government budget balance. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The Chairman of the Federal Bank spoke yesterday in the US, debating the US’s economic policy with the Senate. The Chairman commented on the state of the economy stating that the recovery is still "frustratingly slow” and that the recovery would last a couple more years; but, he expects a more robust recovery in 2012. The Chairman also mentioned that the Federal Bank expects inflation to "remain subdued" and that it is likely to be below 2% in 2012 and 2013. Furthermore, on the back of positive unemployment data out at the end of last week, he stated that the labour market has "improved modestly" in the past year; but that there was a "long way to go" before the job market started running normally again. A Crude Oil inventory is the only significant data out of the US today. Also a member from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is speaking later today. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the main news that took the market by surprise yesterday was the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%. This resulted in the Australian dollar strengthening significantly through the morning with both the £/Aus$ and €/Aus$ exchange rates hitting an all-time low. Also out yesterday, Canada's building permits came in much better than expected and the Swiss National Bank's Interim President reiterated that he won’t tolerate the market breaching the €1.20/Chf1 peg. Out today is the release of housing data in Canada and late in the evening see’s the release of unemployment data in New Zealand. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Tuesday, 7 February 2012

In the UK yesterday we saw the release of house price data with the price of homes rising more than expected. The main focus though remains on Europe and Greece in particular with the continued lack of resolution surrounding its debt crisis; this resulted in sterling getting close to the €1.21/£1 level yesterday before weakening off in the afternoon. Moreover, the UK looks towards the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday with the expectation of the market still pointing towards an expansion of the asset purchase facility. Today there is very little data released in the UK. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the Euro zone yesterday, there was further delay with Greek leaders failing to provide a response to the demands by international creditors on economic measures despite the apparent 11am deadline. A gathering of Greek political leaders has now been pencilled in for today as they struggle for a unified response. We wait to see if there will be any positive developments. The Greek Prime minister did manage to negotiate an agreement of cutting 1.5% of GDP in principle over the weekend but many issues were left unresolved which need to be settled before it can receive its €130bn bailout package. The German Chancellor has been quoted as saying that "time is running out" whilst saying that they refuse to acknowledge the possibility of a Greek bankruptcy. Euro zone investor confidence and German factory orders came in better than expected yesterday, but, both went largely unnoticed with the markets eyes firmly fixed on Greece. With regards to actual data released today; the market will look towards the French trade balance and the German industrial production to provide some insight on the state of the Economy in the two largest Euro zone economies. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

There was no significant data released in the US with the market trading on the back of continued developments in the Euro zone. Yesterday saw the dollar weaken off against both sterling and the euro despite the market fears surrounding the on-going problems in Europe. The Chairman of the Federal Bank is speaking later on today as the market looks for further insight to the state of the world’s largest economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its growth forecasts for China with Moody's already warning that the Euro zone malaise has increased the threat of contagion to Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Further bad news for Australia came in the form of weak retail sales data; however, the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised a lot of people by keeping the interest rates set at 4.25% with their announcement first thing this morning. This has seen the Australian dollar strengthen against sterling to record highs just over the A$1.46/£1 level. Canada's purchasing manager index was well above the level the markets had anticipated and out today we see if the building permits data released can mirror this positivity. Also out today is the release of Switzerland foreign currency reserves. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Monday, 6 February 2012

On Friday the main focus once more was away from UK with the attention of the market drawn to the US unemployment data and the ongoing Euro zone Greek refinancing. The only significant UK data released was the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which came in much better than expected. Following the release of the unemployment data out in the US, risk appetite increased which resulted in sterling weakening against the Canadian Dollar, New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar. This week in the UK we have the release of manufacturing data, but the main focus will be on Thursday where we will discover if the Bank of England will expand the asset purchase program with a further round of quantitative easing. The expectation is an additional £50 billion which will increase the programme of quantitative easing from £275billion to £325billion. The official bank rate is widely expected to remain at 0.5%. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

On Friday a Greek government spokesman said that a basic outline of a deal on the Greek debt restructuring has been agreed and that talks were now underway for the second EU/IMF financing package. Moreover, Greek political leaders have been instructed that they must provide a response to demands by international creditors on economic measures by 11am this morning. As a result, we could see some volatility early on. The Euro zone PMI figures were released which came in as expected. Greece will remain the main focus in the Euro zone this week with the whole world looking to see if and how the ongoing problems will be resolved. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday with the general consensus suggesting that the rate will remain at 1.00%. German trade balance data and Euro zone investor confidence is also released this week. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US on Friday, much better than expected US unemployment data was released with the unemployment rate falling to the lowest level since February 2009. The US Institute for Supply management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing PMI also came in better than expected which weakened the dollar as risk appetite drove the market once more. This release of positive data suggests that there are better long term prospects for the US economy and potentially no need for more quantitative easing. President Obama reiterated this sentiment saying that the economy is getting stronger and that the recovery is speeding up. Out this week in the US there is further unemployment data and the release of trade balance data. The Chairman of the Federal Bank is speaking on two separate occasions. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, on Friday the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar strengthened on the back of the positive global economic outlook following the better than expected US unemployment data whilst the yen weakened. The Swiss government said that the Swiss franc cap of at least 1.20 per euro will be enforced at an absolute minimum. Canadian unemployment data came in worse than expected seeing the jobless rate rise to 9 month high. Out this week, we see the release of the Australian interest rate decision which is currently expected to be reduced from 4.25% to 4.00%. There is also the release of the Australian, Canadian and Chinese trade balance data and unemployment data in New Zealand. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Friday, 3 February 2012

This week has seen sterling trend in favour against the euro due to a lack of resolution surrounding the ongoing euro zone issues. UK Construction Purchasing Managers Index [PMI] came in worse than expected dampening the positive outlook on the UK economy following the release of Wednesdays better than expected manufacturing data. Out today Services PMI with give further reflection on the stability of the economy in the UK and provide insight to the potential risk of a double dip recession. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The EU Economic Summit and Greece’s struggle to seal a debt agreement with private investors has dominated the headlines this week. Rumours suggest that a deal should be completed before the weekend; however, the chairman of euro zone finance ministers, said talks on the bond swap were "ultra-difficult.” The Greek government still needs to reach a deal and secure a second European Union-led bailout by March 20 to avoid defaulting on its debt and the euro zone finance ministers will hold a meeting on Monday in an attempt to wrap up the package. Progress has been made on an EU ‘Fiscal Compact’ insisting on stricter budget discipline; however, the UK and Czech Republic have refused to sign up. EU leaders also agreed to create a €500 billion European Stability Mechanism which is to come into force in July this year much earlier than expected; however, the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation Development has stated that around EUR 1 trillion would be needed. Germany is now demanding oversight of Greece’s finance and without it is refusing to provide more funding for the Greek bailout package; however, on a more positive note the Chinese Prime Minister has raised hopes in the region stating that Beijing was considering greater involvement in the euro zone's rescue funds. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The US dollar was treated to a mixed bag of unemployment data released in the US over the last couple of days and awaits the release of the Non-farm employment change and Unemployment rate out later today. The Federal Reserve Chairman spoke yesterday reiterating that the US Recovery been slow and that there is a long way to go before job market returns to normal. He also noted that the Global economy "appears to be slowing" and that events in Europe may harm U.S. economy. Strong manufacturing PMI data released across Europe, UK and China drove risk appetite for the later part of the weak devaluing the dollar. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc encroached on the €1.20/Chf1 peg this week and the Swiss National Bank interim president did not hesitate to state that he is ready to buy currency in unlimited quantities to defend the peg. Further speculation regarding central bank intervention was rife as rumours suggested that the Bank of Japan could look to devalue the yen and the Finance Minister said that the government is "calmly watching market moves very closely" and pledged to "respond by taking firm measures." Out today, Canadian Employment change and Unemployment rate data is released. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Thursday, 2 February 2012

Sterling started the day poorly against the euro as softer UK Nationwide house price data was released on top of an increased positive outlook in the Euro zone. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index [PMI] for China came in much better than expected boosting public opinion of a more stable global economy as a whole. The more positive outlook resulted in sterling strengthening against the US dollar and the Japanese yen as risk appetite drove the market. The risk of a double dip recession in the UK appears to have eased with UK manufacturing PMI coming in much better than expected reaching an 8 month high. Today we wait and see if the release of construction PMI data mirrors the positive manufacturing PMI data released yesterday. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The euro pushed higher yesterday on the back of better than expected manufacturing PMI data released across Europe and China; moreover, solid Euro zone bond auctions eased the negative sentiment towards the Euro zone and Portugal in particular. Furthermore, the Greek Finance Minister stated that the debt agreement with private investors is only "one step" away and the Greek Prime Minister is seeking backing from political leaders for more austerity measures calming the market. Today, there is little data out in the Euro zone so the focus will remain firmly on Greece and EU Economic Summit. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The US dollar reversed earlier gains as the markets took comfort in the solid manufacturing data released in China and the Euro zone. Worse than expected data released in the form of non-farm pay roll and manufacturing PMI reiterated the feeling that the US road to economic recovery will be a long one. Out today we see a lot of data released including unemployment claims and the Federal Reserve Chairman is also speaking. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar performed well yesterday with increased risk appetite driving in the market. Swiss retail sales and their PMI came in worse than expected and the Japanese Finance Minister repeated that he is watching the currency market closely, so keep an eye out for any action taken to devalue the Yen. Out today we see the release of trade balance values released for both Switzerland and Australia. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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Wednesday, 1 February 2012

Sterling had a good day yesterday with most of the news generated outside of the UK once more. Sterling started lower against the Euro before rallying throughout the afternoon finishing the day above the 1.20 level with increased fear surrounding the Euro zone. However, a record drop in consumer credit has led to many people believing that there could be another round of quantitative easing in February which could slow sterling’s upward progress. Out later today there is manufacturing data which could amplify the fragility of the UK economy. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

The Euro held its relative strength in the morning with the Greek Prime Minister stating that the country had made significant progress in the debt restructuring talks. The latest rumors suggest that a deal should be completed before the weekend. German unemployment data came in better than expected but overall the Euro zone’s unemployment is now at its highest level since the euro was introduced. With weak German retail sales and French consumer spending, rumours of a second bailout in Portugal, the on-going problems surrounding Greece and bad economic data in the US the Euro weakened significantly in the afternoon against sterling and the US$ as risk aversion came to dominate the market. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US there was a raft of bad data out including U.S. consumer confidence declining in January well below the expected level reiterating the fact that although the US economy is moving forwards it is not going to be in a straight line and will be slower than anticipated. Out today we see the release of manufacturing and non–farm payrolls employment data. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar reacted poorly to weak GDP data and a higher than expected fall in the raw materials price index. Not helpful when your economy is reliant on commodity exports. Today we have the release of manufacturing data for China and retail sales data for Switzerland. The Swiss franc is approaching the €1.20/Chf1 level which is the exchange rate at which the Swiss National Bank has stated it will defend. We wait and see. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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