Wednesday, 15 February 2012

Sterling lost ground when Moody’s, one of the big 3 credit rating agencies, put the UK’s AAA rating on a negative outlook due to its exposure to the Euro zone debt crisis meaning there is a one in 3 chance of a downgrade in the next 12-18 months. The effect of a downgrade is open to debate in the current world we live in but in normal times it would mean that the interest that is paid on government debt would increase. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released as expected showing a fall to a 14 month low. The Governor of the Bank of England explained the decision to inject an additional 50 billion pounds into the UK’s economy was based on the Bank of England’s view that there was a “downside” risk of inflation slowing too far past the 2% target and stating that “CPI inflation will continue to fall back to around the target by the end of 2012.” Out today the Bank of England Inflation Report and the Governor from the Bank of England will provide more insight into the Banks view of economic conditions. Furthermore, data released will show the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In Europe, Moody’s cut the debt ratings of six European countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal whilst placing France and Austria on a negative outlook; however, the European Financial Stability Facility's (EFSF) kept its AAA rating. German investor confidence (which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance) was much better than expected rising to a 10-month high and Italy’s borrowing costs fell. The German Finance Minister said that Europe is now better prepared for a Greek default than it was two years ago which went some way to reassure the market. The Chairman of the Euro group announced that the scheduled meeting today for Euro-area finance chiefs has been postponed until next Monday. Not all of the paperwork on Greece is ready and the Euro group are still waiting for assurances from the leaders of the Greek coalition parties that the austerity measures will be implemented. Once more, another deadline has not been met; however, the default day deadline of March 20 cannot be postponed. On a slightly more positive note, China has again stated that they are preparing for further involvement in helping Europe. The economic calendar is fairly light in Europe today as the world looks for any developments surrounding Greece. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

In the US, data released showed that retail sales rose at a rate below estimates with an unexpected drop in the purchases of automobiles driving the figures lower. As well as data showing the balance of domestic and foreign investment released today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its minutes in the evening providing an insight into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Call now for the latest update and the latest news.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan’s stimulus expansion was the most notable news adding 10 trillion yen to its asset purchase program increasing its total to 30 trillion yen (£245 Billion). The Bank of Japan also kept its base interest rate unchanged, target 1% inflation and kept the credit lending program at 35 trillion yen. Call in now for the latest update and the latest news.

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