Wednesday, 13 June 2012

Sterling strengthened by 1 cent against the euro and the US dollar yesterday as the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) GDP estimate’s suggested that the UK saw a slight growth of 0.1% in the last 3 months. Unfortunately, the NIESR figures are only estimates and the UK is still officially in a double dip recession; but, it provides some hope for the state of the UK economy. Contrary to this data, the monthly manufacturing production figures were much worse than expected, contracting by 0.7% when a flat 0.0% figure was expected. Many economists suggested these figures tell a more accurate story than the NIESR and that the UK could fall into a deeper recession meaning further quantitative easing could be required to try and boost the economy. There is very little data released in the UK today; as a result, the markets will look elsewhere for influence so call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro had a very poor day weakening against the majority of currencies following news that Fitch (one of the big three credit rating agencies) had downgraded 18 Spanish banks. More bad news came as the Cyprus finance minister suggested the country may need a bailout to help its failing economy. Moreover, Spanish and Italian bonds pushed ever closer to the 7% level which is viewed as the level at which government debt repayments become unsustainable. The main release today will be the benchmark 10 year bond auction from Germany which is expected to have its yields driven even lower as investors seek save havens for their money. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar had a fairly mixed day yesterday with the focus remaining on Europe and the releases from the UK. On the data front, monthly import prices came in as expected; but, very little else was released. It is a busy day on the data front today with retail sales figures and the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) headlining the economic calendar. With such a busy agenda in the US today, there is the potential for a lot of volatility so call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar continued to perform fairly well yesterday whilst the Japanese yen was particularly weak following remarks from the IMF that it was "moderately overvalued from a medium- term perspective." The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia was speaking late last night whilst consumer sentiment figures were also released. Late this evening we have the official rate decision, press conference and monetary policy statement from the Reserve bank of New Zealand which is expected to reveal the 2.5% base rate has been kept on hold. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


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