Tuesday, 31 July 2012

Sterling had a poor day yesterday undermined by the release of a string of weak economic data which included worse than expected CBI realised sales, fewer than anticipated new mortgage approvals and the change in the value of lending to individuals being lower than the market predicted. With very little data out from the UK today, the markets will look elsewhere for influence. So, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro struggled yesterday following its strong end to last week as economic confidence figures dropped by more than expected in July. Investors are also starting to become nervous that the ECB President may not be able to deliver on his comments last week which alluded to the ECB restarting the bond buying program to drive down sovereign debt yields. Despite this caution, Italy’s benchmark 10 year bond auction yesterday saw its yields fall to 5.96%; but, did not drop by as much as many expected following the ECB Presidents comments last week. Spanish flash GDP was poor and confirmed the country remains in recession; but, the reading did come in at the expected level of -0.4% (it is slightly alarming that Spanish GDP figures are better than the -0.7% in the UK!). German retail sales, Eurozone unemployment data and inflation estimates are all on the agenda today; but, the focus will remain on the ECB press conference on Thursday. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar had a mixed day yesterday due to the lack of significant data released in the US and with the markets tentative about what the rest of the week may bring. The Federal Open Market Committee meetings start today; but, the statement on Wednesday is expected to be much more influential. US consumer confidence figures will be released and should at least give some indication of the state of the US economy. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the best performer yesterday was the Swedish krona which was particularly strong due to the much better than expected GDP data released. Overnight, business confidence figures from New Zealand and building approvals data from Australia was released. Later on today we have Canadian GDP data; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Monday, 30 July 2012


Sterling continued to strengthen against the US dollar on Friday; but, remained weak against the euro as risk appetite returned to the market due to the renewed confidence in Europe following the President of the ECB’s comments on Thursday. Manufacturing, construction and services Purchasers Managers Index (PMI) figures are released throughout the week which will be closely monitored by investors following last week’s poor preliminary GDP data. The other main event will be the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates and quantitative easing following last month’s decision to inject an additional £50bn into the economy. Both are widely expected to be kept on hold despite calls for more monetary easing from some quarters. The statement that follows should provide some insight into the central banks opinion on the state of the UK’s economy at present. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro faired fairly well on Friday following news that Germany, France and Italy all supported the ECB President’s attitude of doing anything to support the euro. However, the German central bank once again announced its opposition to the bond buying program that the ECB President hinted towards on Thursday. The ECB President’s comments have heightened expectations for the press conference that follows the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday (widely expected to be kept on hold at 0.75%) and anything short of a clear plan for decisive action will most likely see the euro struggle. Data released this week includes Spanish flash GDP; Italy’s benchmark 10 year bond auction and Euro wide manufacturing PMI. The main focus though will remain on the potential requirement for a full Spanish international government bailout, Greece’s ability to convince its creditors that it had done enough to deserve its next tranche of funding and the aforementioned ECB press conference. Call in now for the latest update and a live quote.

The US dollar struggled on Friday due to the increased appetite in the market. Advanced GDP data came in slightly above expectations although growth had dropped to 1.5% for the second quarter. The first quarter figures and fourth quarter figure from last year were revised upwards and because of this expectations of further quantitative easing to be implemented this week have receded. The Federal Open Market Committee statement later this week will be important and is expected to give more guidance on keeping interest rates low until 2015. A busy week for the US includes a raft of employment based data with the most influential release being the non – farm pay roll figures which are released on Friday. Both the ISM manufacturing and non- manufacturing PMI data will also be released this week which the markets will hope show an improvement on the poor manufacturing data released last week. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the commodity backed currencies continued to perform relatively well on Friday with renewed confidence in the markets. On the data front, Japanese retail sales figures demonstrated a rise of 0.2% whilst national CPI data released showed a deflation of 0.2%. A busy week for data includes building approvals, retail sales and trade balance data from Australia; business confidence figures from New Zealand; Canadian GDP data; Chinese manufacturing PMI and Swiss retail sales figures will also be released. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Friday, 27 July 2012

A mixed week saw sterling reach fresh 2.5 year highs of €1.2875/1 against the euro before weakening off after global risk appetite increased and appalling UK GDP data was released which saw sterling strengthen by nearly 2.5cents against the US dollar yesterday. The preliminary GDP figures showed that the UK’s economy contracted by 0.7% when only 0.2% had been anticipated making it the longest “double-dip” recession for 50 years. Some economists feel the figures are likely to be inaccurate whilst others hope the Olympics will help growth in the short term; however, irrespective of both of these factors the fundamental problems still remain and the UK’s economy is extremely weak. With very little data out from the UK today, the markets will look to the US and to news from Europe for influence; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro had an extremely poor start to the week reaching historic lows against a raft of currencies before rebounding in the later stages following comments made by the European Central Bank (ECB) President on Thursday. The ECB President stated that the “ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro" and hinted towards more bond buying to drive down the yields on sovereign debt. Following these comments, yields on Spanish and Italian bonds dropped with Spanish bond yields falling below the 7% mark for the first time this week. The markets also reacted positively on Wednesday following one of the members of the ECB suggesting giving the proposed European Stability Mechanism (ESM) a banking license would go some way to help the European debt crises. Earlier in the weak the markets had been extremely risk adverse with fears that Spain may need a full international government bailout and worries over Greece’s ability to convince its creditors that it had done enough to deserve its next tranche of fund of €31.5b. Despite the comments from the President of the ECB, these fears still remain and we will have to see how the situation develops in the up and coming weeks. On the agenda today, German inflation data and Spanish unemployment data will be released. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar performed well in early part of this week as investors continued their flight to safety in such uncertain times; however, as confidence in Europe gathered pace the dollar weakened off sharply against the majority of currencies. A raft of bad data released this week did little to help confidence in the US which included figures showing the number of new homes sold and the number of homes pending sale both dropping sharply in the previous month.  Manufacturing PMI data was slightly worse than expected whilst the Richmond Manufacturing Index was much worse than anticipated. Finally core durable goods orders fell by 1.1%. On a slightly more positive note, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time dropped by much more than originally forecast. Out today, advanced GDP data is released which is expected to have dropped to 1.5%; but, this reading would still be significantly stronger than the UK and much of Europe. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen performed well at the beginning of the week due to its safe haven status before weakening off as global risk sentiment shifted. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand voted to keep interest rates on hold at 2.5% as was widely anticipated, whilst Chinese manufacturing PMI was marginally better than expected providing some slight relief to the markets. Japanese retail sales figures and inflation data was released overnight and economic confidence figures from Switzerland will be released first thing this morning. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Thursday, 26 July 2012

Sterling had an extremely poor day yesterday, losing 1 cent against both the euro and the US dollar whilst weakening off against the majority of other currencies as much worse than expected preliminary GDP data was released. The figures are ominous for the state of the UK's economy depicting a contraction of 0.7% when only 0.2% had been anticipated. 3 straight quarters of negative growth makes this the worse double-dip recession since the Second World War and has led to many economists predicting that another round of Quantitative Easing could be implemented in the up and coming months. The preliminary figures are often disputed by a raft of economists who expect a better reading when the figures are revised next month; however, even if the figures are revised upwards, the best we can realistically hope for would be a dismal flat reading of 0.0% which underlines just how weak the economy is. On a more positive note, business confidence levels have reached the highest levels since 2010. With very little data out from the UK today, the markets will look to the US and to news from Europe for influence; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.
 
The euro was relatively strong yesterday after one of the members of the European Central Bank (ECB) suggested that giving the proposed European Stability Mechanism (ESM) a banking license may go some way to help the Europe debt crisis by giving it access to cash from the ECB and in turn meaning there would be greater funds available to bailout struggling nations. The news provided some relief to the markets with Spanish bond yields dropping slightly after reaching fresh highs; however, the fundamental problems the Eurozone faces still remain. On a more negative perspective, the German business climate figures released were much lower than expected. Today, German business climate figures, Euro-wide money supply and Italian retail sales figures will be released, whilst the ECB President is also speaking. Call in now for the latest update and a live quote.

The US dollar had a mixed day as risk appetite improved due to the proposals put forward in Europe; whilst also trying to digest the terrible GDP figures from the UK. On the data front, figures released showed that the number of new homes sold had dropped sharply in the previous month. A fairly busy day for data today includes figures showing the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, the change in the number of homes pending sale and core durable goods orders. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was weakened as risk appetite tentatively returned to the market. The International Monetary Fund warned China that “global headwinds are increasing”; but, suggested that China was doing well to cope with the dire situation experienced by most of the world’s economies. The IMF downgraded China growth forecast to 8%, a level of growth that the majority of world could only dream of. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand voted to keep interest rates on hold at 2.5% and the Governor of the Bank of Japan was also speaking. Call now for a live rate and the latest update.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Wednesday, 25 July 2012

Sterling was fairly strong yesterday despite having a poor start to the day following the release of figures showing that number of new mortgages approved was much lower than anticipated. The main data released today will be the preliminary GDP figures which are expected to show the market contracted by 0.2% extending the “double-dip” recession that we are currently experiencing. Call in now for the latest update and a live quote.

The euro was relatively weak yesterday dropping below the 1.2050 mark against the US dollar as fears surrounding Greece and Spain dominated the headlines. Services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures released across Europe yesterday were much worse than expected showing that the Eurozone’s economy continues to contract. Spanish bond auctions continued to rise to 7.636% as some economists predict that Spain may need a full international government bailout within the next 3 weeks as Catalonia's regional government looks set to follow Valencia in applying for aid from the Spanish government. More worries came as the Greek Prime Minister suggested that the countries recession is even deeper than first thought and now expects a contraction of 7% this year which is significantly worse than the 5% contraction the Bank of Greece had predicted. Greece must now convince its creditors that it has done enough to deserve its next tranche of fund of €31.5b; furthermore, EU officials warned that Greece may need yet another bailout. German business climate sentiment figures are announced today; but, the markets will be fixated on any developments in Greece or Spain. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar performed well yesterday as investors continued their flight to safety in such uncertain times. On the data front, manufacturing PMI data was slightly worse than expected whilst the Richmond Manufacturing Index was much worse than anticipated underlining the headwinds the world’s largest economy is currently facing. Out today, figures demonstrating the number of new homes sold in the previous month will be announced. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to its safe haven status whilst the Hungarian forint and South African rand were particularly weak. Canadian core retail sales beat expectations yesterday; whilst, Chinese manufacturing PMI was marginally better than expected providing some slight relief to the markets. Trade balance data from New Zealand and Japan released overnight beat expectations; but, Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures were slightly lower than anticipated. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Tuesday, 24 July 2012

Sterling had a poor day yesterday, losing ground against the majority of currencies after hitting fresh highs of €1.2875/£1 against the euro in the morning; but, remained strong against the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and South African rand as risk aversion dominated the market. UK 10 year bond yields dropped to record lows of 1.44% highlighting the concerns of investors’ looking for a safer haven for their money. With very little data out today, the focus will remain on Greece, Spain and Italy to influence risk sentiment; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro had a mixed day yesterday, dropping below the 1.21 mark against the US dollar before recovering in the afternoon. The main data released yesterday was the Consumer Confidence figures from July which are at the lowest level since August 2009. Concerns regarding Greece, Spain and Italy were at the forefront of traders' minds yesterday, with the markets so volatile that Italian regulators banned short selling (where traders bet on a stock price dropping) until the end of the week whilst Spain banned short selling on all stocks for three months and this ban could be extended further. Fears that Spain may need a full international government bailout drove Spanish 10-year bonds to a new euro-era high of 7.565% yesterday; well above the 7% level which is deemed unsustainable for government debt repayments, whilst the Spanish IBEX stock market fell to the lowest point since 2003. Greek default concerns came to light again with rumours of a Greek exit as the Greek creditors (The European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) arrived in Athens to discuss the countries fiscal imbalance. More bad news came over night as Moody’s (one of the big three credit rating agencies) placed the Netherlands, Luxembourg and most influentially Germany’s debt ratings on a negative outlook. Out today, the services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures across Europe will be released, the vast majority of which are expected to show a contraction. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar performed fairly well yesterday as investors’ sought safer havens for their money due to the on-going problems that Europe faces. Out today, Manufacturing PMI data will be released and the Chairman of the Federal Bank is also speaking; but, the focus will remain firmly on Europe. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the suggestion from a member of China’s central bank that growth in the world's second largest economy would continue to slow down, damaged market sentiment further and caused the commodity backed currencies to be sold off with the South African rand, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar particularly weak. The Japanese yen was the best performing currency yesterday due to its safe haven status. Chinese manufacturing PMI was released first thing this morning and the Governor for the Reserve Bank of Australia was also speaking whilst Canadian core retail sales will be released later on this afternoon. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Monday, 23 July 2012

Sterling had a mixed day on Friday reaching fresh highs against the euro of €1.2865/£1 but weakened against the US dollar after the bailout of the Spanish banking sector was confirmed during the Euro group meetings. Public sector borrowing figures released on Friday were worse than expected with higher public deficit and borrowing; but, this had little impact on the markets with the news from Europe dominating market sentiment. The main data released this will be the preliminary GDP figures which are expected to show the market contracted by 0.2% confirming that the UK remains in recession. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro had an extremely poor day on Friday weakening to fresh 3.5 year lows against sterling, a 2 year low against the US dollar, a 12 year low against the Japanese yen and a record low against the Australian dollar after the announcement that Spanish banking industry bailout had been approved by the EU finance ministers. This market reaction is the opposite to what happened when the bailout was first proposed which saw the euro strengthen and may well have been due to the lack of details outlined. Further worries from Spain came as Spanish officials suggested that the economy would not be out of recession until 2014 and that the region of Valencia is preparing to ask for a bailout from the central government. This negativity saw Spanish benchmark 10 year bond yields rise to record high of above 7.2% whilst the spread between German and Spanish 10 year bonds also hit a record high which highlights the concerns of investors’ with the evident flight to safety. Out this week, German business climate sentiment figures are announced and services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures across Europe will be released; however, the main focus will remain firmly on Spain and Greece once more as investors begin to worry about its ability to pay back its debt. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar had a mixed day on Friday as risk aversion dominated the market and investors looked for safer havens for their money; but, was weakened due to investors speculating on the Federal bank loosening monetary policy in the near future. A busy week for data in the US includes advanced GDP which is expected to have dropped to 1.5%, the change in the number of homes pending sale and the number of new homes sold will also be announced. Other data released included the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, core durable goods orders and the Chairman of the Federal Bank is also speaking. Call in now for a live quote and the latest news.

Elsewhere, poor Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Friday showed a sharper rate of deflation than the markets had predicted. The Japanese yen was one of the best performing currencies due to its safe haven status; whilst, the Czech Koruna and Hungarian forint were particularly weak. Australian PPI figures released first thing this morning beat expectations, the Governor for the Reserve Bank of Australia is speaking later on this week and CPI figures will also be released. One of the main releases this week will be the interest rate decision form the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which is expected to be kept on old at 2.5%; whilst trade balance data is also released. Chinese manufacturing PMI could also potentially be a market mover as global risk sentiment often shifts if the figures released are significantly away from market predictions with commodity backed currencies particularly vulnerable. A busy week for Japan includes trade balance data, retails sales figures and CPI data; whilst Canadian core retail sales are also released. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Friday, 20 July 2012

Sterling had a strong week against the euro reaching fresh highs of €1.2830/£1 as fears surrounding the Eurozone were once again at the forefront of traders' minds. A busy week for the UK included the IMF downgrading the UK’s growth forecast in 2012 from 0.8% to 0.2% and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in lower than expected posting a figure of 2.4%. The Bank of England’s latest meeting minutes revealed that 2 members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted against an increase in quantitative easing. Other data released included monthly retail sales figures which were much worse than expected. Public sector net borrowing figures released today will be the main news on the agenda; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro has had a poor week compounded by the German Chancellor’s comments where she expressed her concerns for the “European project" in general. Weak Spanish bond auctions continued to weigh on the euro with the benchmark 10 year bond yields rising back above the 7% mark yesterday. German inflation data is released today; but, the Eurogroup meetings will be the main news on the agenda as the finance ministers meet to discuss the details for the bailout of the Spanish banking sector. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote

The US dollar had a mixed week as risk aversion dominated the market and a raft of poor data was released. Weak data this week included the number of people claiming unemployment benefits rising by much more than anticipated, core retail sales and retail sales figures missing expectations, the manufacturing index figures from Philadelphia were lower than predicted and the number of existing homes sold in the previous month dropped significantly when a rise had been expected. All this poor data would suggest that the Federal Bank would need to loosen monetary policy soon to boost the economy; but, despite this the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank provided little clear indication that quantitative easing would be implemented in the short term. With little data out of the US today, the markets will look elsewhere for influence; so, call in now for a live rate and the live update.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was one of the best performing currencies this week following the Australian monetary policy meeting suggesting that another rate cut was not imminent. The Japanese yen was also strong this week due to its status as a safe haven currency in a risk adverse market. Quarterly import prices figures were released from Australia overnight; however, the main news on the agenda is the Canadian Core CPI. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Wednesday, 18 July 2012

Sterling had a relatively weak day as inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in lower than expected posting a figure of 2.4%. This provided some respite to consumers, but, created downward pressure on the pound as it underlines the sentiment that the UK economy is slowing down. The Bank of England’s latest meeting minutes are released today which are expected to show that all 9 members voted for the increase in quantitative easing by £50 billion; but, some economists predict that a few of the members voted for an even larger increase. We will have to wait and see. The change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits will also be announced; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro started the day fairly strong after a successful Spanish bond auction; but, came under pressure as German business climate sentiment and (ZEW) economic sentiment were both worse than expected. With very little data released across Europe today, the markets will look elsewhere for influence; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar had a fairy poor start to the day; but, strengthened due to risk aversion as the markets were left disappointed by the lack of clarity provided by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. It was hoped that the Chairman would give a clear signal towards more quantitative easing when he was speaking yesterday; but, instead provided little new information and simply reiterated his sentiment from last week, indicating that the central bank were ready to act should market conditions require it. On the data front, Core CPI figures released came out as expected at 0.2%. Today, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank is speaking once again, whilst figures showing the change in the number of new residential building permits granted in the previous month will also be released. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was fairly strong yesterday as minutes from the latest Australian monetary policy meeting suggested that another rate cut was not imminent. Other news released included the Bank of Canada keeping interest rates on hold as expected.  The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy report and press conference will be the main news on the agenda today as the markets look for further insight into yesterday’s interest rate decisions as well as information on the state of the economy. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Tuesday, 17 July 2012

Sterling had a strong day today reaching fresh 3.5 year highs of €1.2765/£1 against the euro whilst performing relatively well against the majority of other currencies despite the IMF downgrading the UK’s growth forecast in 2012 from 0.8% to 0.2%. Inflation data in the form of Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures is released today which is expected to show a figure of 2.8% matching last month's change, whilst the Governor of the Bank of England is also speaking. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro had a relatively poor day reaching new lows against sterling and dipping back below the 1.22 level against the US dollar before recovering in the afternoon. The euro weakened as a report suggested that the European Central Bank may be changing their mind on the seniority of debt, meaning that senior bank debt holders should now share in any losses that may occur which is the opposite to what was implied a few weeks ago. German business climate sentiment and (ZEW) economic sentiment data will be the main data released today; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar started the day fairly strong before weakening in the afternoon as core retail sales and retail sales figures missed expectations dropping by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively when small gains had been anticipated. Core CPI data is the main news on the agenda today whilst the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank is also speaking. Call in now for a live quote and the latest update.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was the best performing currency yesterday strengthening against all the major currencies as risk aversion was the main driver in the market despite the Japanese markets being shut for a bank holiday, whilst the Swedish krona was one of the worst performers. Early this morning, minutes from the latest Australian monetary policy meeting were released and this afternoon the Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates on hold. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Monday, 16 July 2012

This week we will see the release of a raft of UK economic data. Inflation data is released on Tuesday and the expectations are for it to be around the 2.8% level. Not quite the target rate as set by the Bank of England but a lot closer than a few months ago. Later in the week we also have retails sales data for June and the hope is for steady growth which should be achieved given that the Diamond Jubilee fell in this period. Toward the end of the week we have unemployment figures which are expected to show an unemployment rate of 8.2%, the same as last month. Not great but with given what is happening elsewhere probably okay in the eyes of the market. We also have the release of the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting. At the last meeting we had the increase in quantitative easing by £50 billion and it is thought all 9 members voted for this. It will be interesting to see if any members voted for a bigger increase. So after a week when there wasn’t much data released we have a very busy week and as such volatility could be high. Call in now for the latest news and the latest rate.

Will the euro garner any friends this week? Less economic data will be released than in the UK. Inflation is expected to stay at an annual rate of 2.4% and the trade balance is expected to improve slightly. However most eyes will continue to stay focused on the Euro zone debt crisis and the level of yields on Spanish and Italian government debt. The progress being made on the bank rescue package will also be scrutinized as timings and the lack of detail are of concern to the market. Also the on-going effect of the European Central Bank reduction in interest rates could be negative for the euro as investors move their funds elsewhere. So all in all it could be a lively week for the euro and best to call us asap to get an update and the latest rate.

The US$ has benefited from the uncertainty in the Euro zone. Inflation or the lack of inflation seems to be the major concern with it forecast to be 1.2% in the second half of 2012. This is way below the 2% target of the Federal Reserve. We also have the Chairman of the Federal Reserve making his semi-annual monetary to Congress and markets will be looking for any hints on further quantitative easing. See how the US$ is doing by calling in for the latest rate.

There is a raft of economic data out of Canada so it will be interesting to see what effect this has and what effect it has on other commodity backed currencies especially given the concern over China and its economy.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Friday, 13 July 2012

Sterling held its own this week against most currencies and gained a little bit of ground against the euro. A quiet week on the UK economic data front with whatever data that was released being in line with expectations. In fact it was what was happening elsewhere that had a greater influence on exchange rates. Call in now for the latest news on sterling and the latest exchange rates.

The euro had a bad week losing ground against most if not all currencies. At one stage sterling hit albeit briefly €1.27/£1, a rate last seen in 2008. Against the US$ it fell below US$1.22/€1. Slightly strange as we also saw yields on Spanish and Italian government debt fall at the same time and experience would say that the euro strengthens when this happens. I think there are two key reasons for the euro’s weakness. Firstly the reduction in interest rates on the euro which came into effect this week and has led to investors selling the euro and investing elsewhere. Secondly we have a lack of detail and a lack of clarity of timing for implementation on the bank bailout plan agreed at the last EU summit. Difficult to see the euro having many friends in the short term. Call in now for an update.

The US$ has been the main short term beneficiary. Risk aversion has led to greater investments in US treasury bonds which has been supportive of the US$. We also had the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting which was neutral on further quantitative easing and as such added further support to the US$. Get the latest rates by calling in.

Finally we have worries about what is happening in China as growth is slowing and interest rates are being reduced. This seems to be a theme throughout the world with Brazil reducing rates for the third time this year. Not good for the commodity backed currencies which have been so dependent on what is happening in China.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Thursday, 12 July 2012

Steady day for sterling gaining a bit of ground against the euro and holding its own against the US$. No major economic news in the UK to influence matters from this end and it seems to be a case of watching what happens elsewhere especially in the euro zone. At one stage sterling hit its highest level against the euro since October 2008. Call in now to see how sterling is faring today.

The euro continues to suffer as the news out of the Euro zone continues to be mixed. Yields on Spanish government bonds both fell which is positive as further austerity measures were announced. However uncertainty about the detail and timescales of the rescue packages announced at the last EU summit continue to worry the markets. The euro has very few friends. Call in now for the latest update.

The US$ benefits from its safe haven status in these troubled times continuing to gain against the euro. We also had the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve. These were neutral on further quantitative easing which supported the US$ overnight. So short term the US$ seems to be the best supported currency of the three. Will this continue – call in to find out.

Elsewhere we saw weakness from the Australian dollar as risk aversion heightened. The Japanese yen benefits from an improving economy which reduces the likelihood of further liquidity easing from the Bank of Japan.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Wednesday, 11 July 2012

Sterling gained some ground against the euro during the course of Tuesday and was fairly steady against other currencies. The trade deficit for May was slightly better than Aprils as exports grew by 6.6%. Not sure what the split is between price increases resulting from a stronger pound against the euro or volume increases from increased trade. Hopefully the latter rather than the former but I suspect it’s the other way round. The key influencers for sterling for the rest of the week is probably going to be news elsewhere especially out of Europe. Call in now to see how sterling is faring.

Fairly safe to say the euro hasn’t any friends at the moment as it lost ground against the board yesterday. Slightly surprising as progress was made in supplying urgently required funds for the Spanish banks in a timely and flexible manner. This helped reduce yields on both Spanish and Italian government debt. I think the major problem is the lack of detail behind the policies put forward for resolving the longer term problems and this lack of detail increases the markets worries and uncertainties. Get the latest rates by calling in now.

The US$ had a similar day to sterling, steady against a wide range of currencies but gaining ground against the euro. No major news out of the US yesterday but today we have the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve. The markets will be reviewing the committees view on the necessity for further quantitative easing. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve has made it quite clear that if he thinks the US economy is not moving forward as he would like then he will increase liquidity which is usually bad for a currency. Get an update now by calling in.

China surprised the markets in two ways yesterday. Their trade surplus increased to over US$30 billion when expectations were for it to fall and this increase was on the back of imports not growing as fast as expected or as fast as exports. The level of imports increased worries on the state of the Chinese economy especially after last week's cut in interest rates. Call now for a quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Tuesday, 10 July 2012

Steady for sterling with no news either here or elsewhere to move sterling one direction or the other. Today we have a raft of UK data released covering retail sales, industrial production and trade balances. Expectations are not high as business confidence continues to fall across the world. It is probably a case of what happens elsewhere that will be key in determining sterling’s short term direction. Call in now to get a detailed update and the latest rates.

The key event in the Euro zone is the meeting of its finance ministers in Brussels who need to start implementing the decisions taken at the last EU summit. The implementation is not expected to be a quick process even though speedy action would be very helpful to economies throughout the world. With increased risk aversion we have seen the yields on Spanish and Italian debt continue to rise with the debt on the Spanish debt hitting 7% at one stage. The inverse happened to German government debt with yields becoming negative. I think this highlights clearly the contrasting fortunes within the Euro zone and the difficulties faced. Get the latest euro rate by calling in now.

The US$ made significant gains at the end of last week and gave some of these back on Monday. In the US, just like in Germany, yields on US government debt fell as risk aversion came to the fore. The markets are waiting for the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting which will detail their views on further quantitative easing. This happens tomorrow. Call in for an update and the latest US$ rate.

Elsewhere limited news on a quiet Monday. Japan saw machinery orders fall by 14.8% in May to the lowest level for 2 years. This highlights worries that the Euro zone problems are having far reaching consequences on the world's economy.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Monday, 9 July 2012

A mixed week for sterling last week and I suspect this week will be no different. Sterling gained ground against the euro pushing through the €1.26/£1 level on Friday, a rate last seen three and half years ago, as the European Central Bank reduced interest rates. Sterling lost ground against the US$ as the likelihood in some investors eyes of further US quantitative easing receded on the back of reasonable US non-farm payroll figures released on Friday. Tuesday is the main day for the release of UK data this week. Industrial and manufacturing data for May will be released as will the trade balance for May. Expectations are for a slight narrowing but will still be a £9 billion outflow. I suspect events elsewhere will be the main drivers of sterling exchange rates. Call in now for the latest update.

Similar data is released in Europe this week and the data is expected to show the continuing decline in activity and the growing recession in the Euro zone. Trade balance data is going to highlight the disparity between the different countries with Germany expecting an inflow of €13 billion. Quite a contrast to the UK and highlights the might of the German economy. The key driver of the euro’s weakness is the yields on Spanish and Italian debt and these will be watched very carefully this week and if they hit the 7% level we could see further weakness from the euro against all currencies. Don’t get caught out by the uncertainty – call in now for the latest rate.

In the US we had the non-farm payroll data released on Friday. This showed the creation of 80,000 jobs against an expectation of 100,000. So a slight disappointment but not enough to undermine US$. This week we have the release of the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve. This will be carefully read to see if the likelihood of further quantitative easing as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has made it quite clear that he will do whatever is required to keep the US economy moving forward. But things can quickly change so call no.

Elsewhere it seems that China will dominate the news flow. China cuts its interest rate to 6% last week as worries over their economy continue. Growth in the second quarter is expected to fall to 7.8% and their trade balance falls slightly to a surplus of US$18.5 billion. Hence the monetary easing by reducing the interest rate. If only the UK had these problems. Call now for an update and the latest rates.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Friday, 6 July 2012


Sterling had a mixed week rising to €1.255/£1 against the euro; but, dropping back down to US$1.550/£1 against the US dollar. The main reason for the loss of ground against the US$ was the Bank of England announcement that it will inject a further £50billion pounds into the economy though quantitative easing. A lot of focus has been given to Barclays former boss Bob Diamond as the LIBOR fixing scandal developed which the markets fear could spread to many other banks which in turn would severely damage the UK’s financial market as a whole. Mixed Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) figures were released in the week with the biggest shock coming from the construction industry which showed a contraction when expansion had been anticipated. Inflation data in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) is the only significant data released today as the markets pay closer attention to the Non-farm payroll data being released in the US. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro had an extremely poor week which was epitomised by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to cut interest rates to 0.75% yesterday. This saw the euro tumble against the majority of currencies. Whilst the rate cut was widely expected, it disappointed the market as it underlines the weakness of the Eurozone in general. On the data front, unemployment in Europe reached a record high of 11.1%; whilst PMI data released also confirmed the Eurozone is in recession which goes someway to explain the ECB’s decision to cut the central bank interest rate. German industrial production figures is the only data of note released today as the markets absorb the vast quantity of data announced yesterday whilst looking towards the US for influence. Call in now for the latest quote and a live update.

The US dollar performed well this week despite worse than expected PMI data being released, with the manufacturing figures actually showing a contraction in manufacturing when slight growth had been anticipated. Other data included the monthly factory orders beating expectations by rising by 0.7% when last month figures recorded a contraction of 0.7%. US unemployment figures released yesterday came in much better than expected which bodes well for the highly influential Non-farm payrolls data released today; but, we will have to wait and see. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, like in the UK and Europe the main news this week came from the central banks; the Peoples Bank of China announced that it had cut interest rates yesterday; whilst the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Riksbank (Sweden’s Central Bank) kept rates on hold. The Australian dollar continued to strengthen as Australian data revealed that the monthly building approval figures rose dramatically by 27.3% when only a 5.1% increase was expected; whilst much better than expected retail sales figures were also released. Other data released includes Swiss retail sales which were much better than expected posting a reading of 6.2% when only 2.1% had been anticipated. Swiss foreign currency reserve figures are released first thing this morning; however the majority of data released today comes from Canada which includes building permits, employment data and PMI figures. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Thursday, 5 July 2012

Sterling had a poor day yesterday as the services Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) figures released were worse than expected. The focus yesterday was on former Barclays boss Bob Diamond as he went before the Treasury Select Committee to explain the LIBOR fixing scandal that has shaken the already fragile financial sector. The market expects that the Monetary Policy Committee will vote to keep interest rates on hold today at 0.5%; but, look to increase quantitative easing by £50 billion in attempt to shore up the UK’s economy. There is the potential for a lot of volatility today, especially with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate announcement just 45 minutes after the Bank of England's; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro was weak yesterday in anticipation of the expected ECB’s cut to interest rates today by 25bps to 0.75%. On the data front, final services PMI came in as expected; but, monthly retails sales figures were much better than expected posting a 0.6% growth showing a big improvements on last month's -1.4% figure; but, did little to help the euro’s strength. Today’s bench mark 10 year Spanish bond auction will play an impact on the market; but, will play second string to the ECB rate announcement which could cause a lot of volatility. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar performed well yesterday despite the US markets being extremely quiet as the Americans enjoyed the Independence Day bank holiday. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI indices data released today is expected to show a gentle industry expansion; but, we will have to see if the release follows the trend of weak PMI data released across the rest of the world this week. The unemployment data released today will be the main news on the agenda and will provide some direction to the expected figures for the highly influential Non-farm payrolls data released on Friday; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the Swedish krona was extremely strong yesterday following the news that its central bank decided to keep its interest rate on hold at 1.5%.  The Australian dollar also performed well as much better than expected retail sales figures were released; whilst, the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen were not too far behind. Trade Balance data from Australia was released late last night; but, very little other data is released today; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Wednesday, 4 July 2012

 Sterling was fairly range bound yesterday against the euro and US dollar; but, was weak against the commodity backer currencies as construction Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) released was much worse than expected. The data showed that the industry contracted in June when a slight expansion had been anticipated making it increasingly likely that the Bank of England will increase quantitative easing by £50 billion on Thursday. Other data released showed that the change in the total value of money leant to individuals had increased by more than expected. Services PMI is the main news on the agenda which is expected to show that the industry expanded last month; but, the markets will be tentative following yesterday's shock contraction in the construction industry. Other data released includes the change in the price of homes financed by HBOS. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro had a mixed day yesterday as monthly inflation data released was much lower than expected posting a -0.5% change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. Greece plans to start to renegotiate the terms of its bailout package today; but, it is not clear how successful it will be, if at all. The main data released today will be the services PMI figures as well as the monthly change in the total value of sales at the retail level; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar was fairly weak yesterday as investors sought riskier assets to target a greater return for their money.  Data released showed that monthly factory orders beat expectations rising by 0.7% when last month saw a contraction of 0.7%.  It is a bank holiday in the US today so no significant data is released and the market will look elsewhere for influence. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the commodity backed currencies performed well today whilst the Japanese yen struggled as risk appetite drove the market. Data released  from Australia showed that whilst interest rates were kept on hold as expected, other figures revealed that the monthly building approval figures rose dramatically by 27.3% when only a 5.1% increase was expected, Australian retails sales data and services index figures were released first thing this morning; but, very little other data is released today. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Tuesday, 3 July 2012

Sterling strengthened against the euro recovering from Fridays lows whilst remaining fairly range bound against the majority of other currencies as manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) figures released were better than expected showing less of a contraction than had initially been expected. UK construction PMI released today is expected to show that the industry expanded last month; but, to produce a slightly lower reading when compared to last month. Other data released today includes the change in the total value of money leant to individuals; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The euro had a poor day today as unemployment data released showed that the rate of unemployment in Europe was at a record high of 11.1%. PMI data released also confirmed the Eurozone is in recession making it increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates on Thursday. Spanish and Italian benchmark 10 year bond yields rose above 6.6% and 6.2% respectively which makes Thursdays Spanish 10 year bond auction an ominous prospect for the Spanish government as investors continue to demand a greater return for lending money to governments struggling to stabilize their respective economies. With little data released today the markets will look elsewhere for influence whilst looking ahead to Thursday’s central bank meetings. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar had a mixed day strengthening against the euro whilst remaining fairly flat against sterling as data released showed that Manufacturing PMI was much worse than expecting showing a contraction figure of 49.7 when slight growth had been anticipated, highlighting the fragile state of the world's largest economy. The monthly change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers is the only data of note released today in the US; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen performed well yesterday as better than expected manufacturing data was released. Swiss retails sales data released yesterday were much better than expected posting a reading of 6.2% when only 2.1% had been expected; furthermore, Swiss PMI figures also beat the markets estimates. The Australian interest rate decision and monthly building approval figures were announced first thing this morning; whilst Japan also released data showing the year on year average cash earning. Very little other data is released today; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/

Monday, 2 July 2012

Lots of activity and data releases this week so expect lots of volatility [i.e. rapid movements in any direction] as the week progresses. Sterling had a poor day on Friday weakening against the majority of currencies and only strengthening against the safe haven currencies as risk aversion returned to the market following announcements made at the EU economic summit. The Barclay's Bank LIBOR manipulation scandal has sent shock waves through the financial sector with several other banks expected to have been involved which weighted on investors’ confidence in the banks, the financial services and the UK in general. The Bank of England meets this week for its monthly vote on monetary policy. The market expects that the Monetary Policy Committee will vote to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5% and increase quantitative easing by £50 billion in attempt to help the UK’s economy in these uncertain times. Other data out this week includes the manufacturing, construction and services Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMI) and figures showing the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote

The euro performed well on Friday due to renewed confidence in the euro zone following the measures the EU economic summit put forward to recapitalize banks directly providing relief for sovereign debt yields and a growth pact of €120 billion. On the data front, worse than expected German retail sales data was released; but, it had very little effect on the market. This week the bench mark 10 year Spanish bond auction will highlight the confidence, or lack of confidence, investors' have in the nation. The key event though seems to be the European Central Bank interest rate decision which is set to be a key market mover. At present, the markets anticipate the central bank to cut interest rates by 25bps to 0.75%, if this happens; or, if a different decision is made it could cause a lot of volatility in the market; so, call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

The US dollar was particularly weak on Friday as risk appetite was the main driver in the market oncemore. Data released showed that personal spending and personal income figures had missed economist’s estimates. This week, PMI data is released as well as a raft of employment data including the highly influential Non-Farm pay rolls employment figures released on Friday. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.

Elsewhere, the commodity backed currencies performed well on Friday with the Australian dollar particularly strong as investors sought to buy riskier assets with more confidence in the global markets. Canadian GDP data released was better than expected with figures showing growth of 0.3%. This week, releases from Switzerland include retail sales, foreign currency reserves and inflation data. The Australian interest rate decision will be announced as well as trade balance figures and retail sales data. Canadian building permits, employment data and PMI figures will also be released. Call in now for a live quote and the latest news.


Get a live quote and/or more information from Smart Currency at: http://www.smartinternationaltrade.co.uk/