Friday, 13 July 2012

Sterling held its own this week against most currencies and gained a little bit of ground against the euro. A quiet week on the UK economic data front with whatever data that was released being in line with expectations. In fact it was what was happening elsewhere that had a greater influence on exchange rates. Call in now for the latest news on sterling and the latest exchange rates.

The euro had a bad week losing ground against most if not all currencies. At one stage sterling hit albeit briefly €1.27/£1, a rate last seen in 2008. Against the US$ it fell below US$1.22/€1. Slightly strange as we also saw yields on Spanish and Italian government debt fall at the same time and experience would say that the euro strengthens when this happens. I think there are two key reasons for the euro’s weakness. Firstly the reduction in interest rates on the euro which came into effect this week and has led to investors selling the euro and investing elsewhere. Secondly we have a lack of detail and a lack of clarity of timing for implementation on the bank bailout plan agreed at the last EU summit. Difficult to see the euro having many friends in the short term. Call in now for an update.

The US$ has been the main short term beneficiary. Risk aversion has led to greater investments in US treasury bonds which has been supportive of the US$. We also had the release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting which was neutral on further quantitative easing and as such added further support to the US$. Get the latest rates by calling in.

Finally we have worries about what is happening in China as growth is slowing and interest rates are being reduced. This seems to be a theme throughout the world with Brazil reducing rates for the third time this year. Not good for the commodity backed currencies which have been so dependent on what is happening in China.


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