Sterling
Sterling fell to a near four week low against the euro yesterday weakening below the key 1.24 level. This followed a report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) which stated that the manufacturing sector has continued to underperform and was at the lowest level for 10 months. The Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes revealed the members voted 8-1 against an increase in quantitative easing with one member voting for a £25 billion increase. The Public sector net borrowing figures released showed that public borrowing had unexpectedly increased by £2.7 billion compared to this time last year. There is very little data released from the UK today but clearly sterling is under pressure against the euro and if it loses further ground we could soon find ourselves at 1.225 against the euro. Despite the US markets reopening following the Thanksgiving bank holiday, trading volumes a re still expected to be thin as the US wakes up with a hangover. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
Euro
Aside from the 0.5% hiccup on Wednesday following the surprise outcome of the Eurogroup meeting where no agreement was reached on Greek debt, the euro has had a fairly strong week – gaining over a cent against sterling during the course of the week and closing yesterday close to the key support level of 1.235. The euro strengthened, driven up by assurances from the German finance minister that the Greek debt problem will finally be removed next week, as only “technical issues” had prevented an agreement on Tuesday night. Better than expected French and German manufacturing data helped the euro continue to strengthen yesterday, further counteracting the negative pressure caused by the news from earlier in the week that France's debt had been downgraded by Moody’s (one of the big three credit rating agencies). There was also a successful auction of Spanish government debt which underlines market confidence in the euro. Today sees the release of an influential German business climate survey, results have been weaker than expected in recent months. If results are positive it could support further strengthening of the euro, but expect sensitivity as the EU budget meetings continue. Markets could take a hit if the Anglo-German lead group of net contributors succeeds in its calls for a freeze on budgets. Call in now to take advantage of the strong euro.
US dollar
The US dollar struggled this week as global confidence grew over the prospect of a deal on Greece-aid being met and following news that Barack Obama is increasingly hopeful of reaching an agreement to help evade the looming Fiscal Cliff. On the data front, better than expected housing data included Home Sales figures which came out at 4.79 million between October and November and the number of building permits issued increased in October, keeping the housing starts at its highest level since July 2008. Other releases included the weekly jobless claims data and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which came in above market expectations. One negative were the figures which showed that consumer sentiment has dropped from last month. With the Thanksgiving bank holiday celebrations over from yesterday, the US goes back to work today; however, very little significant data is due to be released. Call in now to speak to a trader.
Worldwide
Elsewhere, Chinese Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday was one of the bigger stories this week, expanding for the first time in over a year which increased risk appetite worldwide. Perhaps China's economy will have a soft landing rather than the much feared hard landing. The South African rand struggled this week falling to a 3-year low versus the US dollar, retreating to just over 9.00; the lowest level since April 2009. The Swedish krona had a turbulent week as it was forecast that the central bank would cut interests rates by 0.25% next month and then by a further 0.25% in February 2013. The Australian dollar also struggled yesterday as traders started to speculate that the Reserve Bank of Australia could look to cut interest rate in the short term. The main release today will be the Canadian inflation data; but, there is not much other data expected to be announced; call in now to reserve a rate of exchange.
Sterling fell to a near four week low against the euro yesterday weakening below the key 1.24 level. This followed a report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) which stated that the manufacturing sector has continued to underperform and was at the lowest level for 10 months. The Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes revealed the members voted 8-1 against an increase in quantitative easing with one member voting for a £25 billion increase. The Public sector net borrowing figures released showed that public borrowing had unexpectedly increased by £2.7 billion compared to this time last year. There is very little data released from the UK today but clearly sterling is under pressure against the euro and if it loses further ground we could soon find ourselves at 1.225 against the euro. Despite the US markets reopening following the Thanksgiving bank holiday, trading volumes a re still expected to be thin as the US wakes up with a hangover. Please call in to get a detailed update from your trader.
Euro
Aside from the 0.5% hiccup on Wednesday following the surprise outcome of the Eurogroup meeting where no agreement was reached on Greek debt, the euro has had a fairly strong week – gaining over a cent against sterling during the course of the week and closing yesterday close to the key support level of 1.235. The euro strengthened, driven up by assurances from the German finance minister that the Greek debt problem will finally be removed next week, as only “technical issues” had prevented an agreement on Tuesday night. Better than expected French and German manufacturing data helped the euro continue to strengthen yesterday, further counteracting the negative pressure caused by the news from earlier in the week that France's debt had been downgraded by Moody’s (one of the big three credit rating agencies). There was also a successful auction of Spanish government debt which underlines market confidence in the euro. Today sees the release of an influential German business climate survey, results have been weaker than expected in recent months. If results are positive it could support further strengthening of the euro, but expect sensitivity as the EU budget meetings continue. Markets could take a hit if the Anglo-German lead group of net contributors succeeds in its calls for a freeze on budgets. Call in now to take advantage of the strong euro.
US dollar
The US dollar struggled this week as global confidence grew over the prospect of a deal on Greece-aid being met and following news that Barack Obama is increasingly hopeful of reaching an agreement to help evade the looming Fiscal Cliff. On the data front, better than expected housing data included Home Sales figures which came out at 4.79 million between October and November and the number of building permits issued increased in October, keeping the housing starts at its highest level since July 2008. Other releases included the weekly jobless claims data and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) which came in above market expectations. One negative were the figures which showed that consumer sentiment has dropped from last month. With the Thanksgiving bank holiday celebrations over from yesterday, the US goes back to work today; however, very little significant data is due to be released. Call in now to speak to a trader.
Worldwide
Elsewhere, Chinese Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday was one of the bigger stories this week, expanding for the first time in over a year which increased risk appetite worldwide. Perhaps China's economy will have a soft landing rather than the much feared hard landing. The South African rand struggled this week falling to a 3-year low versus the US dollar, retreating to just over 9.00; the lowest level since April 2009. The Swedish krona had a turbulent week as it was forecast that the central bank would cut interests rates by 0.25% next month and then by a further 0.25% in February 2013. The Australian dollar also struggled yesterday as traders started to speculate that the Reserve Bank of Australia could look to cut interest rate in the short term. The main release today will be the Canadian inflation data; but, there is not much other data expected to be announced; call in now to reserve a rate of exchange.
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