Monday, 4 February 2013

No support for sterling, further weakness expected | Smart Daily Currency Note


Sterling

It was a hugely disappointing end to the week for sterling, suffering heavy losses versus all of its major trading peers and compounding the losses that have been on-going for the entire week. News that key Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) had come out worse than previously forecast further dampened demand for the sterling; culminating in the British currency falling to a 14-month low versus the euro, falling at one stage below 1.15 in the process. It was a similar story versus the US dollar, with increasing pessimism surrounding the UK's economic recovery being a key factor in sterling falling from Thursdays 1.58 level and then falling below 1.57 overnight. This week sees a host of data released from the UK, with key Construction and Services PMI released early in the week, before attention turns to the Bank of England's latest decision on levels of quantitative easing and the base interest rate. There will also be a commentary from the next BoE Governor Carney who will be testifying to the UK’s Treasury Committee about his appointment. Call in now for an update and to get a live price from your trader.

Euro

With the release of little data to disrupt the strengthening flow of the euro, the 17 national currency continued to strengthen across the board on Friday; at one stage hitting 1.37 against the US dollar and 1.150 against sterling. With only limited mid market data to be released this week, it is looking that the euro is going to continue to strengthen. The President of the ECB's ‘positive contagion’ seems to be working as the early economic data for 2013 has shown some small improvements and the euro has been the stand out performer in January gaining nearly 7% against sterling and 10% against the Japanese yen. The ECB Council meeting will be the most important event this week, however, we also have data showing the Spanish unemployment change and a French 10 year bond auction. It will be interesting to see how well the French bond auction is received following last weeks comments from a French Labor Party Minister who described the economy as “totally bankrupt”!. Call in now for a live market quote from your personal trader.

US dollar

The US dollar had a mixed day on Frdiay as the US economy is already displaying a stronger start to the New Year than most of its competitors, as shown by the January jobs data which rose by 157,000. Furthermore, manufacturing PMI data and consumer confidence figures also beat market expectations; however, the overall employment rate has now risen to 7.9%. Service PMI data, trade balance data and the weekly unemployment claims data will be the main releases in what is otherwise a relatively quiet week in the US. Call in now to see how the US dollar is fairing and to get an up to date quote from the live market.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, Friday saw the Japanese yen drop to the lowest level since 2010, with the US dollar buying over 92 yen as the yen continues to be driven by speculation and rhetoric over who the next Bank of Japan Governor might be. The Canadian dollar slid after gains earlier in the week as oil prices - the country's main export - fell. The South African rand finally ended its negative trend last week as strong figures in the USA gave markets confidence that exports would pick back up. This week sees the release of a number of important releases from Australia, culminating in a statement on Monetary Policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia so expect volatility. There is also a raft of data out of Canada, get in touch now for the latest news and prices.

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