Monday, 11 March 2013

Sterling loses ground against the US dollar | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling continues to be one of the weakest currencies with little support from investors. Strong employment data from the States on Friday afternoon saw sterling rapidly lose over 1 cent , ending up close to 1.49. This week could well be a similar story, with little UK data being released that will really influence the value of sterling so expect rates to be driven by news from elsewhere. The big day for UK economic data is Tuesday when manufacturing and industrial production figures are released. A sharp drop off in growth is forecast, in line with the recent Purchasing Manager Index figures. Trade balance figures are also released on Tuesday and are not forecast to change, so little market reaction is expected. Get in touch now for  the latest news and up to the second rates.

Euro

The euro was similarly affected on Friday, hovering back around the 1.15 mark against sterling but losing ground rapidly against the US dollar. Thursday and Friday will see traders focus on the EU economic summit with a potential Cypriot bailout on top of the agenda. Any hints of decisive and early action will lend support to the notion of a strong and reliable Eurozone, improve business confidence and consequently give strength to the euro. Industrial and manufacturing data released this week will highlight a two speed Eurozone economy with Germany continuing to grow while a lot of the rest, including France, continue to struggle. Any surprises will lead to volatility for the euro. Call us for news and live rates for the euro.

US dollar

It was a completely different story for the US dollar on Friday as employment data vastly exceeded expectations, showing a 0.2% decrease in unemployment. The US dollar jumped over a cent on the news, driven in part by the implication that a rise in interest rates might be closer than we thought as the labour market is recovering faster than expected. Given the dramatic shift on Friday, expect the eyes of the markets to be focused on Thursday's weekly unemployment figures . Both the retail sales figures and the Purchasing Price Index are expected to improve on the previous month highlighting that the recovery Stateside is gathering momentum. We should expect the US dollar to at least hold its ground. With trading opening below the key 1.50 level against sterling in Asian markets, the question this week is whether it stays there. Call in now for an update and the latest prices. 

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was once again in free-fall late last week reaching levels not seen since August 2009 at over 96 against the dollar. The key question this week is whether the story will continue, and drive on towards the 100 mark, that Japanese policymakers say they consider an appropriate level to help drive up exports. Unemployment is forecast to rise in Australia with figures being released on Thursday, making it seem unlikely that we will see a dramatic recovery from last week's lows. The New Zealand Reserve Bank looks likely to hold interest rates again on Wednesday evening, as are the Swiss National Bank on Thursday. Get in touch now for the latest news, and up to the second rates on your currency pair.

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