Sterling slowly loses ground | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had a strong start to the day, rising to a ten-week high against the US dollar as an industry report showed UK house prices to have increased for the first time to levels last seen before the recession. Come the afternoon and overnight sterling lost ground. Sterling still remains supported from last Thursday’s growth figures, a dampened expectation that the Bank of England will boost stimulus measures and a renewed optimism for small businesses to take advantage of the revamped Funding for Lending scheme. However the benefits have been short lived and sterling has lost short term momentum. Data released today includes the net lending levels to individuals and mortgage approvals figures. Call in now to see how sterling reacts and for a live price from the market.

Euro

The euro bounced back yesterday as Italy finally formed a new government and swore in new Prime Minister Enrico Letta – ending a nine week deadlock. Indeed a successful Italian 10-year bonds auction confirmed investors’ confidence in the new appointment. Though the prolonged recession across the Eurozone is likely to undermine the new government’s ability to implement effective reform as other countries become increasingly reliant on monetary support. Today’s main release is expected to show unemployment in the Eurozone has reached record high and will put further impetus on the ECB to cut interest rates at Thursdays meeting in order to give the Eurozone a well needed boost. Other notable releases today include Spanish GDP figures and German retail sales data, so be in touch to see if fixing a price now could help you hedge against price levels slipping.

US dollar

The US dollar struggled yesterday as the markets anticipate that the Federal Bank will remain on its current monetary stimulus program come Thursdays central bank meeting. Data released yesterday showed a better than expected reading for the number of homes pending sale; however, Februarys figure was revised downwards painting a mixed picture in the housing market. Other reports yesterday showed personal spending slowing last month – in line with a recent slew of weak data coming from the US, as incomes increased less than forecast and inflation cooled to the lowest level in more than three years. Today sees the release of consumer confidence data which is expected to provide some better news at last. The US dollar remains weak after the disappointing first quarter GDP figures; but with a busy week ahead, the potential for volatility remains high. Call in for the latest developments and prices.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty saw its best gains in three weeks ahead of the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, indeed commodity backed currencies  performed well yesterday with the South  African rand and New Zealand particularly strong as the chances of an interest rate cut in Europe gathered pace and as analysts remain confident the US will maintain its stimulus program. The Canadian dollar rose to its highest level in two weeks yesterday against its US counterpart; buoyed by increasing prices for crude oil, the country’s largest export. Overnight we saw the release of business confidence data from New Zealand and later on today we have GDP data released from Canada which is currently expected to show growth of just 0.2%. Call in for feedback on market reactions and up-to-the second price levels.

Sterling still strengthening | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling continued its upward trend on Friday strengthening for a fifth day against both the euro and the US dollar following Thursday’s news the UK had avoided a triple-dip recession and grown slightly beyond expectations. The main data released this week will be the Purchase Manager’s indices (PMI) for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors. At present, the manufacturing and construction sectors are both expected to show their respective sectors are contracting whilst the services sector (which makes up nearly 70% of the UK's output) is predicted to be show slight expansion. Other data released this week includes the net lending levels to individuals, mortgage approvals figures and house price data. With recent good news, analysts hope for a gradual improvement across the board, but it remains a slim margin whether developments impact positively or negatively on the sterling, so call in to keep abreast of reactions and price levels throughout the week.

Euro

The euro struggled on Friday as leading banks continue to speculate that the European Central Bank (ECB) will look to cut interest rates at Thursdays central bank meeting. The ECB published two sets of data on Friday showing lending across its 17 nations remains at low levels as businesses struggled with weak demand and difficulty in obtaining financing. The Spanish government downgraded its economic forecasts as it struggles with economic contraction and heavy austerity measures; symptomatic of a Eurozone that is struggling to get back to sustained growth. This week, alongside expectations the ECB will push interest rates to record lows on Thursday, we also see the release of Europe-wide unemployment and inflation data, economic forecasts from the EU and a raft of data from Germany. Get in touch now for up-to-the-second developments on euro prices.

US dollar

The US dollar had an extremely poor day on Friday, falling against the majority of its 16 major peers following data showing US gross domestic product increased by less than expected (2.5% compared to the forecast 3.0%), fuelling worries that the US economy is failing to grow in line with expectations. With GDP data falling short of market estimates and inflation remaining low, this has led to some analysts predicting that the Federal Reserve will continue with its stimulus program for longer than has been recently suggested in order to help support the economy. Hints of when the Federal Bank may look to tighten monetary policy may come from the statement that follows the central banks monetary policy decision on Thursday. Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing PMI figures will also be announced this week alongside a raft of unemployment data which includes the highly influential non – farm pay roll data which will be announced on Friday. Speak to one of your traders for the latest news and to get a live quote.

Worldwide

Friday saw the Japanese yen as the stand out performer after the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged. The Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened for the third consecutive day against a struggling US dollar as a result of market rumours that the major central banks are to start putting money into the higher-yielding South Pacific currencies. The New Zealand Dollar had a particularly strong day as export data came in better than expected. The South African rand fell for the first time in four days, as its central bank announced that increased borrowing and that rising inflation could push bond yields up. It is a busy week for data which sees the release of business confidence data from New Zealand, Chinese Manufacturing PMI, Australian inflation data and building approvals statistics, and from Canada we see GDP data and trade balance figures released. Get in touch for the latest rates.

Sterling gains on better than expected growth figures | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

The main news this week came yesterday as GDP data revealed that the UK had avoided falling into an unprecedented triple-dip-recession after preliminary growth figures for the first quarter exceeded market expectations. After a quiet week for data, the GDP data revealed modest growth of 0.3% when just 0.1% had been anticipated, giving a much-needed psychological boost to consumers, businesses and sterling. The recovery is largely down to a strong performance in a dominant services sector coupled with better North Sea oil and gas output – propelling sterling to rise against all 16 of its major counterparts including reaching one month and two month highs against the euro and US dollar respectively. It has to be remembered that the theme amongst many expert market commentators, just before the Cyprus banking crisis, was that sterling was going to continue in free-fall which highlights the dangers of trying to second guess currency movements. The broader picture of the economy remains largely the same however, whilst these preliminary figures only account for under half of the total data. It is nonetheless an encouraging sign and will no doubt influence the Bank of England's next meeting on monetary policy on the 8th of May. Be in touch with your trader to see if sterling can find further gains into the weekend.

Euro

It has been a fairly poor week for the euro as the market reacted to disappointing data coming out of Germany. Data revealed that the German manufacturing sector had contracted to a greater degree than expected whilst the German Business Climate Index dropped more than economists predicted for a second month in a row. The euro also struggled over continued speculation that the European Central bank will lower interest rates next week amidst concerns of a widely faltering economy. ECB money supply data that is being released this morning could have some bearing on the euro's performance throughout the day as could on-going speculation regarding the central bank's interest rate decision and continuing reaction to the UK's growth data. Call in now for live rates and up to the minute information. 

US dollar

The US dollar fell against both the euro and yen on Thursday after a variable week, as a recent batch of disappointing economic data fuelled concerns about the pace of recovery in the United States. Data released on Wednesday showed that orders for American Durable Goods fell by almost 6% in March, almost twice of what was expected and has led to some analysts suggesting that today's GDP data may come up short of the median forecasts. Unemployment data released yesterday revealed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the US fell significantly more than predicted – providing some much needed contrast to the poor labour related data released recently. All eyes will be on today's advance growth figures this afternoon which are expected to show solid growth of 3.1%  – call in now to keep up to date with market reactions.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, commodity backed currencies struggled in the early stages of this week after data from China  revealed that the manufacturing sector was slowing down, providing further evidence that their recovery may be faltering. The Japanese yen came close to the key psychological level of 100 against the US dollar this week, though this remained untouched as the currency strengthened early this week. The New Zealand dollar performed well following the news that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s left rates unchanged whilst signalling that the central bank was more likely to raise interest rates than cut them. Call in for the latest rates from your dedicated trader.

Are we in recession? We find out this morning! | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

The announcement that the government's Funding for Lending scheme (the scheme designed to give the economy a boost by encouraging banks to lend to businesses and households) is to be extended lent support to sterling yesterday, trading in a half-a-cent range as everyone looked ahead to today's preliminary first quarter growth figures. While only preliminary, the UK’s growth figures, are being viewed with great anticipation as they will show whether or not the UK has slipped back into recession. The general consensus is for 0.1% growth, if we see any deviation from this figure expect to see considerable movement. Call in now to find out the verdict and for a live rate.

Euro

The euro stuttered as hopes that Italy could at last find a resolution to political instability were offset by disappointing German data that fuelled anticipation of the European Central bank cutting interest rates further in next Thursday's Monetary Policy committee meeting. The German Business Climate Index dropped more than economists predicted for a second month in a row whilst Italian Retail Sales data indicated a slight contraction. Traders drew some confidence from reports that the formation of a coalition government in the euro zone's third-largest economy could yet emerge and offer relief to investors buying assets in the region. With speculation rife that the ECB could well cut interest rates in the next central bank meeting, today’s release of Spanish unemployment data could well add more fuel to the fire, so call in today for how this affects euro pricing.

US dollar

The US dollar has weakened overnight against both the US dollar and the euro. Orders for American Durable Goods fell by almost 6% in March, almost twice of what was expected, whilst Capital Goods Orders – often a barometer for future business investment – grew at a slower pace than analysts had anticipated. With demand for these US products faltering, this data may be seen as highlighting a further slowdown in private sector consumption. First quarter GDP figures are released on Friday and it will be interesting to see if they support a more gloomy outlook for growth in the world's largest economy going forward. Today, Unemployment Claims data will be the main release, so be in touch with your trader to discuss how this affects the US dollar price throughout the day.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar performed well yesterday following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s leaving rates unchanged whilst signalling that the central bank was more likely to raise interest rates than cut them. The Japanese yen fell against the commodity backed currencies as analysts expect the currency to weaken further amid signs that the nation's investors are seeking foreign assets. The Swiss franc slid for a seventh day against the euro following renewed optimism for Italian political stability whilst the Canadian dollar suffered on the back of data out of the US. Be in touch to see how developments affect your currency pairs.

Sterling steady before Thursday's growth figures | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Despite disappointing public sector borrowing figures in the morning, sterling enjoyed a steady day, making gains against most major peers which included strengthening above the 1.17 level against the euro. While today looks set to be quiet in terms of data released, we could nonetheless see volatility as we await tomorrow's preliminary first quarter growth figures. Although only preliminary, any deviation from the forecast figure of 0.1% growth will likely move the market. Call in now for the latest update on the UK and how this is effecting sterling.

Euro

Poor manufacturing data from Germany caused the euro to weaken early yesterday, with the monthly Purchasing Managers' Index data showing that the German manufacturing sector had contracted to a greater degree than expected. On a more positive note, manufacturing figures from France beat market estimates, but as the powerhouse of Europe, the shortfall in the German figures drove market sentiment. The poor figures emanating from the Eurozone’s largest economy has reinforced speculation that the ECB could cut interest rates to a record low next month, which would cause the currency to weaken further. German Business Climate data released today is likely to have the greatest impact on the performance of the seventeen-nation currency as Eurozone countries continue to hope for more concrete signs of economic recovery. Call in now for live rates and up to the minute information.

US dollar

The US dollar enjoyed a successful day buoyed by the news that the housing sector is on the up with stronger demand. New home sales figures released yesterday described an upward trend through March, indicating a real estate market recovery could be sustained, and as builders respond to make more homes available, increased demand will help fuel stronger economic growth. Indeed the advance first quarter GDP report on Friday is expected to show the world's largest economy gathering pace, though figures released today are projected to show that demand for US Durable Goods fell by nearly 3% in March. Talk to your trader to gauge what this could mean for US dollar prices. 

Worldwide

Elsewhere, currencies worldwide were affected by data released from China showing a slowing manufacturing sector and providing further evidence that their recovery may be faltering. The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell against most of their major peers following the news, whilst the Canadian dollar traded at a six-week low against its US counterpart despite core retail sales figures exhibiting better than expected results. The Swedish krona also struggled yesterday after the overall unemployment rate was revised upwards. Call in to see how markets react to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s central bank decision and Australian inflation figures released overnight.

Sterling - are we seeing the calm before the storm? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had a good day yesterday strengthening against all except one of its 16 major trading partners. This was better than to be expected following the ratings downgrade by Fitch on Friday (from AAA to AA+) due to weak economic performance. The downgrade did not come as a shock although it puts further focus on the GDP data released later this week, with economists largely hopeful that the UK will marginally avoid a triple dip recession. Confidence was further buoyed by news that the Chancellor is likely to extend the Bank of England's Funding for Lending scheme aimed to boost loans for small businesses and consumers. Today we have a quiet day for GBP data release, with only Public Sector Net Borrowing and CBI Industrial Order Expectations. The critical day this week is Thursday when the growth figures for the first quarter will be released - we should expect increased volatility in the second half of this week. Call now for the latest news.

Euro

The euro had a mixed day yesterday as European Central Bank officials gave further indication  that interest rates are to remain low, whilst the German Bundesbank articulated their reserved expectations for Eurozone recovery as the region struggles to return to sustained growth. Indeed, the euro may continue to suffer under this gloomy outlook and the ECB's interest rate decision in ten days' time could be very significant especially if they decide to cut it. It is hoped that the re-election of Giorgio Napolitano as Italy’s President will reduce Italian political instability but I suspect that there is still a lot of work to be done before a solid base for stability is reached. Today we have the release of the highly influential Manufacturing and Services PMI data for Europe. The current consensus is for an overall contraction in both sectors with only Germany potentially showing industry expansion in the Manufacturing sector. Call in now to see how these figures could affect the rates.

US dollar

The start of the week saw the release of US housing sector reports, which unexpectedly observed a drop in home sales through March after economist's estimates that real estate sales would reach their highest levels since 2009 fell distinctly short. Despite this, the US dollar prices were not strongly affected although the US dollar did have a mixed day against major pairings. Further home sales figures will paint a clearer picture later today, though this certainly feels like a soft patch in economic data emanating from America, in contrast to the positive sentiment in the first few months of this year. Talk to your trader today to see whether this marks a turning point in price levels for the US Dollar.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, after the G20 summit offered little criticism of the Bank of Japan's recent monetary policy reforms recently, the Japanese Yen was well placed to push through to the key 100 mark against the US dollar in early trading yesterday. However, this target level, not seen for four years, remained untouched as the Yen strengthened through the day. There is a belief that once we breach this level we will see a further rapid depreciation in the Yen. The Swedish krona gained against most major peers on the news that the deputy governor of its central bank will resign in May after failing to garner support for further interest rate cuts. Today sees the release of key retail figures from Canada before Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney speaks this afternoon in the wake of Canadian dollar trading at 6-week lows following poor US home sales figures. Get in touch for the latest news and up to the second rates on your currency pair.

Sterling under pressure | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

It just shows how things can change so quickly. After a steady week sterling lost over a cent against the euro and the US dollar late Friday as it was announced that Fitch joined Moody's downgraded UK government debt in stripping the UK of AAA status based on the weak economic environment. Further rapid movements can be expected this week as we await Thursdays announcement of UK growth figures for the first quarter of this year. The median forecast is for slight growth of 0.1% - narrowly avoiding the ominous triple-dip recession; however,  the overall consensus is far from clear and analysts remain split as to whether or not the UK will officially fall back into recession. Any deviation from the 0.1% increase will undoubtedly affect sterling's value. Call in now for the latest news and an up to the second quote.

Euro

The euro advanced against sterling on Friday amid speculation that the European Central Bank will take additional measures to support the monetary union, though buoyant attitudes seem perpetually diluted by the prospect of economic and political instability in the medium-term. As commercial banks in the Eurozone look to repay almost eleven billion Euros of the Long-Term Refinancing Operation this week, the weak forecast for private sector lending may encourage the ECB to drop interest rates to record lows amid another quantitative easing cycle as growth and inflation prospects remain depressed. Ahead of the ECB rate decision on 2nd May we should see more fluctuation in the euro’s fortunes as officials maintain a reactionary approach to addressing risks inherent in the region. Manufacturing and Services PMI data released this week will be watched closely as key indicators of how well the Eurozone is performing as a whole. Call in now for the latest update on the markets. 

US dollar

The US dollar held a fairly constant trajectory just before the weekend, whilst seeing significant gains against sterling. There are a number of interesting pieces of data coming out of the US this week. Today and tomorrow we will see the release of home sales data, a leading indicator of economic health, the outcome of which will be reflected in the market. Later on in the week we have durable goods, unemployment, and GDP data released on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday respectively. All data will be influential on the market so call in now for up-to-the-minute rates.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen weakened over the weekend - nearing the 100 per dollar level not seen since 2009 after the Bank of Japan's monetary policy stimulus policies went unopposed throughout the G20 meetings. Japan's currency dropped in most of its major pairs, with traders expecting further decreases in value against the US dollar and euro. The South pacific nations' currencies rebounded from weekly losses however as monetary stimulus from the US to Japan increased demand for higher-yielding assets, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars both finding demand following the recent drop in gold prices. Central bank and inflation figures this week from both regions will be pivotal for how they are set to perform in the second quarter. Call in now for live rates and an update on the latest global developments.

Concerns over UK growth could undermine sterling next week | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling has had a "steady" week. It lost a bit of ground against the US dollar, held its own against the euro and gained against the commodity backed currencies. During the week there were some ups and downs as data was released but we did appear to be in a period of relative calm for sterling especially when compared to the first three months of this year. However this could all change next week with the release of first quarter GDP figures. Will the UK economy be subject to a triple dip recession? The Bank of England monetary policy meeting minutes revealed no change in the number of members voting for an increase in quantitative easing although analysts are predicting that when the new Governor takes up his post at the Bank of England in July, it will herald a fresh cycle of quantitative easing which is likely to undermine the currency further. During the week sterling did slip against the euro to a six-week low and looked susceptible to further weakness in light of continuing concerns about the British economy and following comments from the IMF who suggested it may be time for the UK to consider altering its current fiscal plans. Sterling lost ground against the US dollar as data released showed UK unemployment rates climbing while wage increases were lower than the level of inflation. Inflation data showed that headline inflation of 2.8% remained above the Bank of England’s target of 2.0%. Further negativity came yesterday as poor UK retail sales figures were released. We have a quiet day today in terms of sterling data but the IMF and G20 meetings taking place could well lead to a volatile market. Call now for the latest news and updates.

Euro

The recently mercurial euro started strongly this week before fears were raised that interest rates could be cut to record lows in the short to medium term. News that Cyprus is to sell off a chunk of its gold reserves also didn't help. However in mid-week it reached a six-week high against both the sterling and the US dollar, showing a broad firmness having been boosted by central bank demand and ground made against the Japanese yen. This however precluded its biggest daily drop in ten months as fears that interest rates could be cut to record lows began to materialise. Nonetheless the single currency found strong support yesterday at the psychologically important $1.30 level but remains vulnerable to political risks such as Italy failing to bring presidential elections to a conclusion and continued uncertainty over a bailout deal for Cyprus. Today sees German inflation figures released as well as a Eurozone current account report which will shed light on prevailing demand for the currency. Europe will also be thrust into focus with G20 meetings concluding over the weekend: call in now for how decisions could impact your euro price levels. 

US dollar

It has been a varied and eventful week for the US dollar as it responded to a mixed release of data. The currency performed poorly during the middle of the week in response to a falling US Consumer Price Index and relatively restrained inflation data coming out despite the 2.5 trillion dollars of quantitative easing that has been pumped into the US economy over the last 5 years. Whilst there was further fluctuation in both directions towards the end of the week after the Beige book indicated continued economic recovery, the US dollar ended up at back around the 1.53 mark against sterling and looked to be weakening towards 1.31 against the euro. A speech by the Governor of the Federal Reserve today could have an impact on performance throughout the day as could on-going developments in the G20 meetings. Call in now for live rates and up to date information. 

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen rose on Monday for the first time in two weeks as people looked to a safe haven following lower than expected economic growth from China. There was also a slow performance from Australian and Canadian dollars, as well as all commodity backed currencies as metal prices suffered their steepest drop in a year with gold and crude oil prices especially suffering. The Swedish krona struggled midweek after its central bank revised down its path for future interest rates. The Canadian dollar continuing a prevailing slide to its lowest level in a month against the dollar after the Bank of Canada downgraded its growth predictions. How the currency reacts to today's Consumer Price Index figures and sale statistics data will be pivotal.

Mixed day for sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling fell against the dollar yesterday following government data showing the  UK unemployment rate had climbed alongside wage increases slowing below the level of inflation; signs of a weakening domestic economy. Indeed, Sterling lost ground across the board as the Bank of England's April meeting minutes described policymakers voting to keep asset purchases on hold despite a call from the Governor of the Bank of England for additional stimulus - echoing sentiment from the International Monetary Fund which recently cut its economic forecast for the UK. It remains marginal whether growth data next week will reveal another recession. However Sterling did have a better second half to the day gaining ground as worries elsewhere undermined the euro and the commodity backed currencies. Call in now for how this uncertainty impacts Sterling demand.

Euro

The euro struggled yesterday, plunging from recent highs notably against the US dollar and Japanese yen alongside relinquishing a strong position over the ailing Sterling. The drop was fuelled by the President of the German central bank suggesting that the European Central Bank could cut interest rates to record lows, which may see the euro struggle to maintain the rebound it enjoyed earlier in the month. The biggest story today is likely to be the Spanish bond auction, a key indicator of market confidence in the economic health of the Eurozone. Get in touch now to see what impact this has and for a live market price.

US dollar

A struggling stock market saw many traders sell off equity holdings; boosting demand for the US dollar and driving rates up on all fronts. Today sees the release of key unemployment figures which last month exceeded expectations. If the predicted rise in unemployment forecast is better than expected then expect the dollar to strengthen as traders look at a burgeoning labour market as a signal that the Federal Reserve Bank will end quantitative easing programs sooner rather than later. Get in touch now for the latest news and up to the second prices.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Russian rouble performed poorly yesterday as the price of crude oil dropped, causing a further loss of faith in the Russian economy. The Swedish krona was one of the worst performing currencies after its central bank revised down its path for future interest rates. It was also a difficult day for the Canadian Dollar, as the market saw it drop to its lowest level in a month versus its US counterpart. The slide was a reaction to the Bank of Canada lowering its growth rate prediction for the year to 1.5% from the 2% predicted in January. Today, the Chairman of the Bank of Canada is due to speak in Washington DC which may provide clues as to the country's monetary policy for the second quarter with Canada still reacting to falling commodity values. Get in touch for the latest rates.

Euro strength surprises | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling yesterday lost ground against the euro but held its own against the US dollar. CPI data showed that headline inflation of 2.8% remained above the Bank of England’s target of 2.0%. Sterling dropped to a six-week low against the euro and looked susceptible to further weakness in light of continuing concerns about the British economy. An official from the IMF suggested it may be time for the UK to consider altering its current fiscal plans in light of very weak private demand. Inflation levels may weigh on growth and it remains difficult to predict whether GDP figures next week will identify a triple-dip recession. The minutes from the latest Bank of England monetary policy meeting released today will be closely watched; if we see another member of the Monetary Policy Committee voting on further quantitative easing this will have a palpable and negative effect on sterling prices, so call in for market reaction and the latest rates. 

Euro

In spite of disappointing German economic sentiment reports released early in the morning, the euro was one of the best performing currencies yesterday reaching a one and a half month high against sterling and the US dollar where it challenged the key 1.32 resistance level. The seventeen-nation currency showed a broad firmness against most of its major peers; boosted by central bank demand as well as high gains made against the Japanese Yen as it recovered from weakening on Monday. Italian Trade Balance data which was much better than expected helped support the euro whilst consumer price index figures revealed annual inflation went down to 1.7% in March. The Eurozone economic calendar is fairly thin today with only the German 10-year bond auction of note. However, as  traders start to ponder if Slovenia will be next Cyprus, Italian lawmakers  vote to elect a new president on Thursday and problems surrounding Portugal come to light – there is always the potential for news to impact euro strength.  Get in touch for the latest rates. 

US dollar

The US dollar had a very poor day yesterday, weakening against all its major counterparts bar the Japanese yen as building permits data and head line inflation figures both fell short of market estimations. The US Consumer Price index fell to 0.1% yesterday lower than  some expectations and inflation is being contained despite more than 2.5 trillion dollars of quantitative easing being injected into the economy over the last five years. This news came as gold prices recovered to some degree having slipped drastically through the morning. Today ‘s main releases will be the Beige book this evening which will reveal the state of the local economies from all 12 Federal Reserve Banks. Despite it being a quiet day on the data front, two members of the Federal Open Market Committee will be speaking today so there is the potential for volatility in the market. Call in now for the latest update on the US dollar.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was the worst performing currency yesterday weakening significantly against its major counterparty on Tuesday in light of the central bank's announcement of unprecedented stimulus measures. The South African Rand strengthened for the first time in three days, bouncing back from its sharpest slip in months as metal prices rallied and investors sensed the currency's decline had bottomed out. The Canadian dollar recovered against its US counterpart following Mondays drop showing the largest fall in a year as gold losses dampened demand for commodity-linked currencies. The main news today will be the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision which is widely expected to be kept on hold at 1%, furthermore, the monetary policy report that goes alongside this release will be watched closely by investors. Be in touch for movement in your currency at Smart now.

Sterling holds steady ahead of busy week | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had a day steady day yesterday as traders are nervous ahead of the UKs busy week of data releases and as the commodity market stole the headlines with Gold and Silver prices dropping by nearly 10% and 13% respectively. The markets are also having  to digest figures from China showing that growth has unexpectedly slowed. It will be interesting to see if this week's data releases backup the belief that, at last, there is a sustainable but somewhat lethargic economic recovery in Britain.  This morning's inflation release is expected to show inflation at  2.8%, so get in touch with your trader for market reactions.

Euro

The euro initially struggled yesterday against the US dollar, sterling and Japanese yen. Indeed, news that Cyprus looks likely to sell €400 million worth of its gold reserves was testament to a feeling of structural weakness across outlying member states as fears of Cyprus leaving the single currency were talked down. The decision is necessary in order to raise the €7 billion contribution that Cyprus must put forward in order to obtain the planned EU bailout, and is likely to underscore willingness by many central bank officials to ease monetary policy in the medium term. Today will see the monthly release of the European economic sentiment survey’s along with Core Consumer Price Index inflation figures. The survey is likely to have a direct impact on the value of the euro this week so get in touch for the latest rates.

US dollar

The US dollar fluctuated throughout yesterday against most of its main counterparts. Both important data releases for the day were received with a degree of disappointment; firstly the New York Manufacturing Index showing conditions are improving at a much slower pace than predicted. Alongside this, figures on international demand for U.S. financial assets revealed a stark drop as investors sought shelter elsewhere throughout February although this was forecast to bounce back through the Spring. Today brings a brace of noteworthy events for the US dollar starting with the Residential Building Permits report followed by a Consumer Price Index release, though levels on both fronts are expected to remain constant. Call in today for the latest updates on the market situation and live price from our traders.

Worldwide

Yesterday saw the Japanese yen climb for the first time in two weeks, emerging as a safe haven asset following news that Chinese economic growth came in at 7.7%, below forecasts of 8%. The commodity backed currencies all struggled yesterday including the Canadian dollar dropping to the lowest point against sterling since February. Overnight, we saw the meeting minutes from this month's Australian monetary policy committee meeting released and later on today we will see manufacturing sales figures from Canada and key inflation data being released in New Zealand. Be in touch for how world currencies react in the wake of a potentially slowing Chinese economy with your trader.

Can we have another steady week for sterling? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling showed no drastic change before the weekend against its major partners with exception to the Japanese yen where it lost ground for the first time in over a week. A quiet day for data in the UK was however influenced by  data released elsewhere including weaker than expected US retail data. This week see's the release of important UK inflation data, retail sales figures as well as the Bank of England's inflation report which should give a good indication of their expectations. However, the most influential piece of news coming from the UK this week will be the meeting minutes from the latest Bank of England meeting. Traders will be nervous in the run up to Wednesdays release wondering if any more members voted in favour of extending the current monetary easing program. Call in now to get live rates for sterling.

Euro

The resilience of the euro lately has been surprising given the significant structural issues regarding Cyprus, Portugal, or Italian politics, and this week may start showing signs of vulnerability following the strength in Australian, Canadian and Scandinavian currencies. Big news before the weekend came in the shape of an impending ratification of a 10 billion Euro bailout for Cyprus, though there are worries this may have to be extended by up to 6 billion. Today will see seasonally adjusted trade balance data released though this tends to have a muted effect on the markets as it does not include Germany and France who publish theirs earlier. European inflation data and  comments from the European Central Bank President on Tuesday could well set the tone for Euro movement over the week. Call your dedicated trader now to see how this affects your business.

US dollar

The US dollar had a mixed reaction before the weekend to US retail sales data, which surprised in underperforming and falling 0.4% in March. This boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing cycle will roll on for the time being, though the dollar declined from a four-year peak against the Japanese yen. Some reports before the weekend showed American confidence at a nine-month low despite some encouraging news and a strong equity market. Building Permits figures and inflation data are due to be released on Tuesday and this will shed light on how the dollar is reacting to the monetary stimulus programme. Call in now for reactions throughout this week.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Romanian leu performed well on Friday after two major investment banks encouraged its clients to buy Romanian bonds at auction this week whilst Asian currencies continued to outperform following the Bank of Japans recent aggressive monetary easing policy. It is a busy week on the data front and early this morning we have seen inflation data released from China. The governor of the Bank of Japan also spoke following the yen getting ever closer to its target price of 100 against the US dollar last week. The question now would seem to be whether they can slow the fall and this week at the G20 meetings we expect the finance chiefs to remind Japan about its pledge to not drive down the value of the yen. Tonight the minutes of this month's Australian Monetary Policy Committee meeting are released, though with no change in rates two weeks ago, expect market reaction to be muted. Wednesday sees the Bank of Canada update on interest rates and at present no change is expected. Call in today for an update on your currency, and the latest rates.

A steady week for sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling has had a generally strong week. After a confident end to the previous week, some traders felt that Sterling had been over-bought which caused prices to drop on Monday. This slide was then countered on Tuesday as retail sales, as well as industrial and manufacturing output figures, showed better than expected results. Markets reacted with an injection of confidence and a belief that the UK might avoid a triple-dip recession. Yesterday saw sterling climb marginally against the US Dollar, the most it had advanced against its American counterpart in seven weeks, in reaction to the Debt Management Office selling off £1.6 billion worth of inflation-linked gilts. It is a fairly quiet day for data out of the UK, but with the Eurogroup and ECONFIN meetings taking place alongside a busy day for data in the US, there is still the potential for a lot of volatility. Get in touch to see if sterling’s rally against the US dollar will continue.

Euro

The euro has made a steady recovery this week and has showed strength against both sterling and the US dollar whilst climbing to a peak of three years against the Japanese yen. A commitment from Russia to restructure their 2.5 billion euro loan to Cyprus and better than expected French manufacturing data this week have both contributed to the single currency making up some of the ground that was lost following the escalation of events in Cyprus. More positivity came from the bond markets where the Spanish 10-year bond yield hit its lowest level within the same time frame and the yields on Italian debt also fell. Industrial production data from the Eurozone is being released today and more importantly we see the start of a two-day Eurogroup meeting, which may give some hints regarding development of the economic policies of the 17 nations. Call in now for live rates and up to date information.

US dollar

The US dollar had a poor week, struggling against most of its peers following the terrible labour data out of the US last week. Furthermore, with global risk appetite increasing the US dollar was sold off against all bar the Japanese yen. Positive unemployment claims data released yesterday helped calm the markets following the worse than expected labour data from last week, with some economists suggesting that it was just a blip in what has otherwise been a strong recovery for the labour market. The main focus this week was on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes which supported expectations that we could see an end to a cycle of bond buying this year if the labour market continues to improve. Today we have core retail sales and inflation data emerge which will be sure to have an effect on the markets, so call your trader now to see the impact on prices and the latest developments.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen has continued to slide against all of its major counterparts, including dropping to five year lows against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Moreover, the Governor Bank of Japan was speaking overnight and we will continue to see the markets react as traders scrutinize what was said. Commodity backed currencies have gained momentum over the course of the week as global risk appetite drove much of the foreign exchange market; in no small part thanks to strong lending figures emanating from China, suggesting their new Government is keen to shore up their financial sector as a priority. This has proved to have a beneficial effect on the Australian Dollar especially – serving to dilute the country's disappointing March employment report. Call in to see how this influences prices throughout the day.

Sterling holds steady | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling remained fairly range bound yesterday following the solid industrial output data released on Tuesday which increased belief that the UK should avoid a triple-dip recession. Sterling remains close to a two-month high against the US dollar and edged near to a four year high against the Japanese yen. These gains are likely to be limited however until GDP data from the first quarter of 2013 is released later in the month, and in anticipation of a new Governor of the Bank of England who starts his tenure in July. Today a speech from the Bank of England's deputy governor is likely to provide hints to monetary policy going forwards. Call in to see how this impacts Sterling.

Euro

The euro started the day on the front foot on the back of improved French manufacturing figures for February, which beat forecasts. Furthermore, figures from Greece show that deposit inflows were valued at more than €1.5 billion for March, going against market expectations that the Cypriot banking crisis would cause significant outflows in other troubled European nations. However, this positivity was not enough to prevent the euro losing ground later on as poor industrial production data from Spain and Italy. Later today, the single currency will be watched closely as the European Central Bank releases its monthly bulletin which may well provide further hints regarding a potential interest rate cut in the near future. Call in for more reaction from the markets.

US dollar

The US dollar had a steady day yesterday, with its only real significant movement against the yen, hitting a four-year high. By mistake, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released their meeting minutes 5 hours early because they were inadvertently sent early to a list of individuals who usually receive the information after release time. The minutes fortified expectations that we will see an end to a period of bond buying sooner than expected. Some FOMC policymakers favoured slowing the pace of asset purchases whilst others looked to stop quantitative easing by the end of the year (if labour conditions improved as expected), though market reactions to this were relatively muted. Today we have unemployment claims data released, though the focus this week will be on Friday's retail sales and inflation data. Call your trader to see how prices are affected.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the biggest loser yesterday was the Japanese yen which continued its slump, falling to its lowest level against the US dollar for four years as the Japanese Central Bank reiterated plans for its stimulus program and how monetary policy would not be altered. Norway’s kroner was also having a bad day against its major counterparts after an unexpected slowdown in growth increased the possibility of a cut in interest rates. The Australian dollar traded close to recent highs; performing well on most fronts after imports in China, Australian’s biggest trade partner, unexpectedly rose. Overnight we saw labour data released from Australia, but little else is due to be released. Get in touch now for the latest news and rates on your currency.

The US dollar continues to weaken | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling performed relatively well yesterday strengthening close to a six-week high against the US dollar on the back of positive UK data. It also made gains against the Euro but then lost ground throughout the afternoon. Along with positive retail sales levels being released, industrial output and manufacturing figures both came out better than forecast; supporting the belief that the UK will avoid a triple-dip recession. Recent positive data indicates the UK could now be moving towards a slow but sustained recovery, as a result, some traders feel that the Monetary Policy Committee may promote a more neutral stance for the rest of the year. We may see an increasing number of central bank officials take a more constrained attitude towards credit and monetary policy. That being said, the new Governor of the Bank of England starts his tenure in July and is renowned for his accommodative stance on monetary policy. Today and indeed this week it is reasonably quiet for sterling news, call in now for the latest live rates.

Euro

The euro performed strongly yesterday, showing modest gains over the majority of its major counterparts - most notably in regard to the US dollar against which it was trading at monthly highs by the end of the afternoon. Political pressure may act as a catalyst for further growth as Spanish officials encouraged expansionary measures to address fragmented capital markets, and the US Treasury Secretary implored Spain and surrounding countries to adopt policies that foster consumer demand in the face of stagnant growth and inflation. On the data front German trade figures beat expectations but showed a marked reduction in exports whilst imports also dropped whilst French data showed that their trade gap had widened. The European Central Bank, for its part, is increasingly showing a willingness to reduce interest rates to record lows, and the Governing Council may follow through on its easing cycle in the near future. This morning will see the release of French Industrial Production Data which should give an indication of wider EU economic health. Get in touch for the latest rates.

US dollar

The US dollar struggled to hold its ground on Tuesday weakening against the euro and sterling although it did fall from close to its four-year highs against the yen. Some investors feel that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may evolve to favour tighter controls and a more restrictive credit policy as the central bank seems to be gradually straying from its quantitative easing cycle with expectations for economic growth on the rise. This evening will bring light on this as the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting are released and should shine a light on deeper economic conditions influencing their vote on interest rate levels. Other data released today will include the Federal Budget balance figures and we will also have a 10-year bond auction. Be in touch for the latest updates.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, after declining rapidly for four days, the Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar and moved away from the four-year low of 99.66. The general decline of the yen is still expected to continue as the aggressive quantitative easing takes hold, but yesterday saw a brief respite as traders appeared to reflect on what has been a significant movement. The poor performance of yen and the dollar in the last few days has caused an increase in risk appetite from which the Australian dollar has benefited seeing it strengthen against the majority of its trading partners. The Thai baht was the stand-out performer of the Asian currencies yesterday, rising to its highest level against the US dollar since 1997. However, there are some concerns that the currency has strengthened too quickly of late and the Bank of Thailand may alter policy in future in order to slow down its rise. Data released today in Japan regarding monthly machinery orders and monthly unemployment data from Australia will have an impact on the currencies going forward. Call in now for live rates and up to the minute information.

Will todays manufacturing data help lift sterling? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling performed poorly yesterday, tumbling against all major currencies bar the Japanese yen. After reaching a one month high paired with its dollar counterpart towards the end of last week, the rate dropped back to below 1.5250 yesterday afternoon. Having been a quiet day for affective data, it is likely that general caution regarding the nation's precarious economic situation and the on-going speculation concerning whether or not we see further quantitative easing have influenced the slip. Furthermore, some traders feel that sterling was “over-bought” at the end of last week and so we are seeing these positions unwind. Today however, manufacturing output figures being released should give traders further indication of Britain's economic health, and moreover this will be followed by a monthly GDP estimate from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). Call in now for live rates and up to the minute information.

Euro

The euro had a strong start to the week, climbing back above the psychological 1.30 level against the dollar by lunchtime yesterday as Russia committed to restructuring Cyprus' 2.5 billion euro loan of 2011, whilst Portugal declared promises to step up its austerity drive following their Constitutional Court's decision not to cut payments to pensioners and public service employees. The country's next bailout package will be reviewed with a 'growth-friendly' perspective according to the EU President as many countries struggle to put a cohesive economic scaffolding in place. Indeed, many governments are relying increasingly on monetary support and it appears increasingly likely that the European Central Bank may have to lower interest rates later in the Spring. Other data released yesterday showed that Investor Confidence for April had sank to its lowest reading of 2013. The single-currency has regained some momentum recently and today’s data will certainly be watched closely by investors. The main announcement will be the Manufacturing PMI figures but alongside this we also have inflation data in Germany and more unemployment data from Spain . Stay up-to date with news and prices with Smart.

US dollar

The start of the week has been relatively quiet for the US dollar with the markets nervous in the run up to last night’s Federal Markets conference. As always, particular attention was given to the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech addressing America's financial stability as well as investors keeping one eye on the release on Wednesday of the meeting minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Today sees the monthly report on wholesale inventories released as the currency's performance continues to respond to disappointing employment figures from last week. Call in for the latest news and live quote from your trader.

Worldwide

Elsewhere the big story yesterday came from Japan with the yen breaking through the 99 mark against the US dollar for the first time in nearly 4 years. The Bank of Japan has openly targeted a rate of 100, pumping money into the economy in an effort to drive inflation up, and exchange rates down. The Hungarian forint was the biggest mover of the day, gaining over a percent against sterling as a major bank announced that interest free loans would be made available to small companies to boost the economy. The Polish zloty was not far behind, also making large gains on speculation of an interest rate cut in the near future. Canadian Building Permit data released today is expected to be a marked improvement on last month; expect the Canadian dollar to benefit if it is. Call in now for the latest news on your currency pair.

Sterling rises to a six week high against the Dollar | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had a relatively positive, if quiet end to last week as it strengthened to a six week high against the US dollar to rise above 1.53 on Friday afternoon, whilst seeing little movement against the euro. The UK's economic calendar is much quieter this week, with the main releases coming on Tuesday in the form of the influential monthly manufacturing data whilst Trade Balance figures will also be announced. The Bank of England voted to keep quantitative easing on hold last week, but speculation regarding future loosening of monetary policy is still rife. On-going speculation regarding further easing will continue to effect sterling’s relative strength on a continuous basis, whilst data released this week may cause more of a knee-jerk reaction in the market. Call in now for live rates and up to the minute information.

Euro

The euro climbed to a 1 week high against the US dollar on Friday after a string of poor unemployment data was released from the States. This move came in spite of a raft of negativity across Europe which included data revealing that retail spending had contracted earlier in the year, final GDP figures portraying a 0.6% contraction in the eurozone as a whole and the ECB declaring that commercial banks would be obliged to repay over 8 billion euros of the three-year loans this week which is likely to put a dampener on the forecast for growth as Europe confronts more restrictive credit conditions. Despite earlier signs of economic stability, German Factory Orders remained on a downward trend and decisions on further bailout funds for Greece are expected to be postponed. On this note, the ECB may well look to lower interest rates as the deep-rooted recession yields more price volatility, and indeed the single currency may struggle to hold its ground as the outlook remains gloomy. The main events this week will be the Eurogroup and ECONFIN meetings on Friday and Saturday respectively, where the proposed banking union will be one of the main topics of conversation. We will also have the ECB's monthly bulletin which will provide further insight into the central banks current view on the state of the economy, French and German industrial production data and an Italian 10-year bond auction. Call in now for the leanest update on the euro.

US dollar

The US dollar suffered badly on Friday on news that the employment market produced just 88,000 jobs through March; under half of forecast expectations causing the currency to drop starkly in comparison to its euro and sterling counterparts, though it still held against the yen as Japanese quantitative easing further undermined the strength of the currency. Further concern was caused by the news that labour participation sank to its lowest level since 1979, with half a million having left the workforce although the overall unemployment rate did drop to 7.6%. This week, the main focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting minutes released on Wednesday where we will see how the central bank came about its decisions at the mast meeting. Furthermore, the minutes can often indicate when a change in policy may be likely - however, following last weeks terrible labour data, the chance of monetary policy being tightened in the near term has been significantly lowered. Other data out of the states includes, consumer sentiment statistics, inflation related data and retail sales figures. Call in now to speak to your trader and for the latest market information.

Worldwide

Friday saw the Canadian dollar's worst day for nine months through a combination of disappointing monthly employment statistics and weak trade balance data having been released. This week however there may be some chance of recovery with important building permit issue data being released on Tuesday. The Japanese yen continued to tumble on Friday following last weeks decision to implement an ultra-loose monetary policy in order to drive up inflation, furthermore, the yen will continue to be watched closely this week and overnight we saw the release of Japanese current account figures. It is a busy week for China with inflation data and Trade Balance statistics due to be announced on Monday and Wednesday respectively. Not only will these figures decisively influence the relative strength of the Chinese renminbi, but also in turn have an notable effect on all commodity-backed currencies due to China’s influence on the market as the world's biggest manufacturer. Other data released this week includes business confidence data from New Zealand and labour data from Australia. Get in touch for the latest rates.

Sterling has a "steady" week | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling has had a steady week which contrasts to its loss of value and high volatility in the first quarter of this year and also given there was lots of news this week. The Bank of England met and decided not to inject a wave of fresh stimulus into Britain's ailing economy but instead hold the current level of asset purchases steady. They also kept interest rates on hold. Sterling saw a marginal rise following Britain's services sector recording its strongest growth in several months. This was in contrast to the data from the Manufacturing and Construction Purchase Manager's Indices (PMI) which once again disappointed, causing sterling to fall by up to a per cent midweek against its major counterparts. The most important factor though was the news from the country's dominant services sector which makes up 75% of the economy’s output suggesting the UK may well dodge a triple dip recession having picked up steam throughout March. Call us now for the latest news and up to the second prices. 

Euro

It was a busy week in Europe with the ECB keeping interest rates on hold and the news that the International Monetary Fund would provide 10 billion euros of aid to Cyprus. The comments from the President of the ECB also helped calm the markets when he outlined that the central bank will keep an accommodative monetary policy whilst stating that the model that has been taken for Cyprus is not a template for future bailouts. On a more negative tone, unemployment rates have now reached record highs of 12% highlighting the probability of compounded contraction in the first quarter of this year. Manufacturing PMI in Europe showed another month of contraction as did the Services sector, in spite of beating market estimates. The final GDP reading released this morning is expected to confirm that the Eurozone contracted by -0.6%, whilst retail sales data is also projected to fall by -0.3%. Call in now for the latest rates and a live update.

US dollar

The US dollar has had a mixed week and was then weakened significantly yesterday evening following comments from one of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee who said the current monetary policy is “over accommodative” and that imbalances could "unwind in a disruptive manner”. PMI data this week also disappointed, falling short of market estimates but still showed clear industry expansion for both the Services and non-Services sectors. On the job market front, the ADP National Employment Report came out weaker than expected as did the number of new people claiming unemployment related benefits. With these poor releases in mind and the Federal Bank’s monetary policy being so closely linked to the labour market, today’s highly influential non-farm unemployment data and overall rate of unemployment will be of particular importance to the US dollar relative strength in the short term.  Other data released from the States today includes trade balance data, so get in touch for the latest news and market updates with Smart.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was once again the big story of the week, making gains as traders started to bet against the new Governor imposing the ultra-loose monetary policy that had originally been touted but was then sold off aggressively after the new Governor exceeded many analysts expectations by expanding  its monetary stimulus program by doubling the monthly purchases in an attempt to drive up inflation. The Australian dollar also had a busy week after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold and positive data was released in the form of building approvals statistics, retail sales data and figures showing  the nation’s trade gap had narrowed. It is a busy day for Canada with unemployment data, trade balance figures and PMI data all on the economic calendar leading to the potential for increased market activity for the Canadian dollar.

What will the Bank of England do today? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Despite worse than expected Construction Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data yesterday sterling had a fairly steady day. While it traded in a very tight range against the euro just below 1.18 mark, sterling gained against the US dollar on the hope that UK Services PMI would be positive tomorrow, and that the Bank of England will refrain from extending its quantitative easing programs. Last month three of the nine members of the monetary policy committee voted in favour of a further asset purchasing and any deviation from this figure will affect sterling dramatically. This morning sterling has been under pressure and has lost ground as worries begin to mount on a negative outcome from the Bank of England meeting. Call us now for the latest news and up to the second prices.

Euro

The 17-nation currency rose against most of its major peers as the International Monetary Fund announced it would provide 10 billion euros of aid to Cyprus. Inflation estimates released in the Eurozone for March came out slightly above expectations at 1.7%, but did little to influence the relative strength of the euro. The main news on the economic agenda today will be the ECB meeting and its announcement on interest rates which are expected to remain unchanged. Other data released today will include the Spanish and French ten-year bond auctions, as well as the Services PMI data that is released across Europe. A busy day for Europe and an increased chance of volatility, call in now for the latest developments.

US dollar

The US dollar struggled yesterday following reports outlining less job creation than forecast in the US private sector and a slowdown in growth across the services industry, which contrasts negatively with the encouraging signs of recovery within the world’s largest economy over the last few months. The ADP National Employment Report, following weak manufacturing data on Monday, indicated that momentum had stalled after an encouraging run of data recently whilst the services and employment indices dropped below economist’s forecasts. Several members of the Federal Reserve will speak today including the Chairman of the Federal  Bank and these speeches often provide insights as to future monetary policy and can affect currency movements, so get in touch for the latest news and market updates with Smart.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Russian rouble had a weak day yesterday; falling further than in recent weeks it against the central bank's Euro/US dollar basket, and was the worst performing of 31 major currencies. The fall in value was a result of the biggest outflow of capital from Russia in over a year - a fallout from Europe’s financial crisis, and indicative of wider uncertainty globally. The South African rand performed relatively well as better than expected business confidence figures were released, whilst the Australian dollar reacted positively after figures showed the nation’s trade gap had narrowed. The Japanese yen made considerable gains against all of its major trading peers yesterday as traders started to bet against the new Governor imposing the ultra-loose monetary policy that had originally been predicted but overnight we saw the Japanese yen weaken dramatically after the new Governor expanded its monetary stimulus program by doubling the monthly purchases in an attempt to drive up inflation. This move exceeded many analysts expectations, hence the aggressive reaction in the market. Call in to speak to your trader and for a live update from the market.

Is the UK headed for a triple dip recession? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling was one of the worst performing currencies yesterday, struggling to hold onto recent gains as the Manufacturing Purchase Managers Index (PMI) data once again disappointed, coming in half a percent lower than expected, causing sterling to drop by as much as 1% against its major counterparts. Today is the second of the three major PMI releases, this time from the construction sector, with nervous mutterings developing about the potential for further quantitative easing from Thursday’s Bank of England meeting if results continue in a weak vein. Tomorrow is the crucial day, with PMI figures from the Services sector - which makes up over 75% of the UK's GDP - being touted as the key to avoiding the so-called triple dip recession. Get in touch now for the latest news and up to the second prices.

 
Euro

In the Eurozone, headlines today were of unemployment rates climbing to record highs. The figure was revised to 12%: more than it has been since its formation in 1999 – highlighting the probability of compounded contraction in the first quarter of this year. This had an impact on the single currency; falling as it has against the US dollar and Japanese yen. Having been under pressure on this front for much of the trading session, selling accelerated with news of Cyprus' Finance Minister resigning. It is clear that Europe's economy is still facing huge problems, with troubles on its periphery exacerbating the issue. CPI inflation data will be the main release on the agenda today, but traders will have one eye on Thursday’s ECB meeting where a decision to retain interest rates at 0.75% is expected. Be in touch with Smart for current prices and further developments.

US dollar

The US dollar performed reasonably well on a quiet day yesterday, making considerable gains against sterling and strengthening slightly against euro following the release of poor data in the UK and across Europe. As expected, monthly data regarding orders placed with manufacturers in the world's largest economy showed an encouraging increase causing the US dollar to remain steady whilst sterling and the single currency continued to struggle. Today will see more varied data released including crude oil inventories, monthly employment data and monthly non-manufacturing data, which could all have some bearing on performance throughout the day. Call in now for live rates and up to date information.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, strong data released from China boosted demand for commodity-backed currencies – particularly the Canadian dollar which reached a five-week high against its US counterpart. The Australian dollar also performed well following the decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep interest rates on hold and in the run up to trade balance data released late last night. Get in touch to keep track of these the latest rates.

Sterling in for a busy week | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling has continued to perform well against the euro over the past few days reaching fresh highs of 1.1885 during the break whilst staying relatively range bound against the US dollar. This week is data heavy for sterling, with Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the Manufacturing sector released today and then Construction and Services data being released over the next couple of days. After terrible figures last month lead to weakness in sterling, traders will watch this month's results closely. Speculation will return this week ahead of Thursday's monetary policy committee meeting that the Bank of England may look to increase quantitative easing. Given the uncertainty, a vote for or a vote against a further increase are both likely to cause a knee jerk reaction in the market and therefore rapid movements. Call in now for a live update and to speak to your trader.

Euro

The banks re-opened in Cyprus on Thursday to relative calm mainly due to the strict money controls placed upon bank accounts to stop capital flight in the troubled nation. Cypriot officials are expected to try and renegotiate the terms of their bailout with the Troika this week as concerns emerge in the market that it may well need another one in the future. This week the European Central Bank will be at the forefront of traders' minds with the monthly interest rate decision on Thursday which is widely anticipated to be kept on hold once more. The press conference that follows may well cause a great deal of volatility as it is likely to be dominated by comments regarding Cyprus. Manufacturing and services PMI data released this week will be watched closely by traders as they try to second guess the relative strength of Eurozone economy as a whole. We also have unemployment figures, retail sales data, final GDP figures which are expected to show the Eurozone economy as a whole contracted by 0.6 % and we also have 10-year bond auctions from both France and Spain. Get in touch this week for the most up to date news and rates.

US dollar

Thursday saw the US dollar weaken against all major competitors ahead of the Easter weekend due to an easing of concerns across the Eurozone and a shortfall in expected 4th quarter GDP growth. The US economy grew at an annualised 0.4% (exceeding the 0.1% forecast from January), however this weighed in slightly below the +0.5% expected reading, which enforced a degree of selling pressure in the US dollar. On Friday, consumer confidence figures and data showing the percentage increase in personal spending both beat analysts estimates. Yesterday, Manufacturing PMI data came out far below market expectations but still demonstrating industry expansion. For the rest of the week, all eyes will be fixated on the raft of employment related data released which comes to a climax on Friday with the highly influential Non-farm Pay rolls data. Other data released this week includes trade balance data, non-Manufacturing PMI and the Chairman of the Federal Bank is also speaking. Call in now to speak to your trader for the latest market update. 

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar stole much of the headlines on Thursday as GDP data released came our mildly better than expected showing the economy grew by 0.2%. Chinese Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday came out lower than expected, somewhat dampening the hopes of a strong economic recovery in the worlds second largest economy. Early this morning the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold as it stated that measures taken previously were beginning to benefit the economy; other data released from Austrlaia this week includes trade balance statistics announced today and tomorrow sees retail sales and building permits figures released. The Bank of Japan is holding a press conference, and announcing interest rates on Thursday which traders will watch with a keen interest given last month's announcement of a new 2% inflation target and the recently appointed new governor of the Bank of Japan. The unemployment figures released on Friday from Canada have consistently been dropping in recent months, if the trend continues, and trade balance figures released at the same time are also positive, expect the Canadian dollar to benefit. Call in now for the latest news and prices for your currency.