Tuesday, 2 April 2013

Sterling in for a busy week | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling has continued to perform well against the euro over the past few days reaching fresh highs of 1.1885 during the break whilst staying relatively range bound against the US dollar. This week is data heavy for sterling, with Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the Manufacturing sector released today and then Construction and Services data being released over the next couple of days. After terrible figures last month lead to weakness in sterling, traders will watch this month's results closely. Speculation will return this week ahead of Thursday's monetary policy committee meeting that the Bank of England may look to increase quantitative easing. Given the uncertainty, a vote for or a vote against a further increase are both likely to cause a knee jerk reaction in the market and therefore rapid movements. Call in now for a live update and to speak to your trader.

Euro

The banks re-opened in Cyprus on Thursday to relative calm mainly due to the strict money controls placed upon bank accounts to stop capital flight in the troubled nation. Cypriot officials are expected to try and renegotiate the terms of their bailout with the Troika this week as concerns emerge in the market that it may well need another one in the future. This week the European Central Bank will be at the forefront of traders' minds with the monthly interest rate decision on Thursday which is widely anticipated to be kept on hold once more. The press conference that follows may well cause a great deal of volatility as it is likely to be dominated by comments regarding Cyprus. Manufacturing and services PMI data released this week will be watched closely by traders as they try to second guess the relative strength of Eurozone economy as a whole. We also have unemployment figures, retail sales data, final GDP figures which are expected to show the Eurozone economy as a whole contracted by 0.6 % and we also have 10-year bond auctions from both France and Spain. Get in touch this week for the most up to date news and rates.

US dollar

Thursday saw the US dollar weaken against all major competitors ahead of the Easter weekend due to an easing of concerns across the Eurozone and a shortfall in expected 4th quarter GDP growth. The US economy grew at an annualised 0.4% (exceeding the 0.1% forecast from January), however this weighed in slightly below the +0.5% expected reading, which enforced a degree of selling pressure in the US dollar. On Friday, consumer confidence figures and data showing the percentage increase in personal spending both beat analysts estimates. Yesterday, Manufacturing PMI data came out far below market expectations but still demonstrating industry expansion. For the rest of the week, all eyes will be fixated on the raft of employment related data released which comes to a climax on Friday with the highly influential Non-farm Pay rolls data. Other data released this week includes trade balance data, non-Manufacturing PMI and the Chairman of the Federal Bank is also speaking. Call in now to speak to your trader for the latest market update. 


Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar stole much of the headlines on Thursday as GDP data released came our mildly better than expected showing the economy grew by 0.2%. Chinese Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday came out lower than expected, somewhat dampening the hopes of a strong economic recovery in the worlds second largest economy. Early this morning the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold as it stated that measures taken previously were beginning to benefit the economy; other data released from Austrlaia this week includes trade balance statistics announced today and tomorrow sees retail sales and building permits figures released. The Bank of Japan is holding a press conference, and announcing interest rates on Thursday which traders will watch with a keen interest given last month's announcement of a new 2% inflation target and the recently appointed new governor of the Bank of Japan. The unemployment figures released on Friday from Canada have consistently been dropping in recent months, if the trend continues, and trade balance figures released at the same time are also positive, expect the Canadian dollar to benefit. Call in now for the latest news and prices for your currency.

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