Monday, 1 October 2012

Daily Currency Note 1st October 2012

Sterling struggled on Friday despite a lack of data being released in the UK. Over the weekend, Fitch (one of the big three credit rating agencies) warned that the UK could be downgraded if the government does not take better control of its growing debt. Manufacturing, construction and services Purchasers Managers Index (PMI) figures are released throughout the week which will give detailed feedback on the state of the UK economy and will be closely monitored by investors. The main event this week will be the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates and quantitative easing which are both expected to be kept on hold. The statement that follows should provide some insight into the central banks opinion on the state of the UK’s economy. So a busy week on the news front so please call in now for the latest rates.

The euro had a mixed day on Friday as the markets continued to digest Spain’s budget announcement which included a raft of measures to boost the economy and plans to borrow €207.2 billion next year and which some economists believe indicates that Spain will shortly be asking for a full government bailout. The ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday will be the main event this week, but, is widely expected to be kept on hold at 0.75%. Other data released includes services and manufacturing PMI figures and the President of the ECB is also speaking. Movements in the euro last week were somewhat muted given recent experience so call in now for the latest news and changes in the euro rate.

The US dollar performed relatively well on Friday in spite of a raft of poor data being released and as risk aversion increased. Manufacturing PMI figures from Chicago were much worse than expected showing an industry contraction when slight expansion had been anticipated, consumer confidence figures came in lower than expected as did the change in personal spending. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data will be released this week alongside a raft of unemployment data which includes the highly influential non – farm pay roll data which will be announced on Friday and is always watched extremely closely by investors. Even though the US dollar is under pressure following the introduction of the rolling programme of quantitative easing it will benefit from increased risk aversion so get the latest update by calling in.

Elsewhere, Canadian GDP data released was better than expected showing marginal growth of 0.2%. A busy week for Australia includes the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision which is expected to be kept on hold at 3.5%, retail sales data and trade balance figures will also be announced. From Canada this week we have unemployment figures, building permits statistics and PMI data will also be released. On Friday, we have the Bank of Japan's rate decision, press conference and monetary policy statement. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.


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