Friday, 5 October 2012

Daily Currency Note 5th October 2012

Sterling struggled for most of this week due to a raft of poor data being released. Services, manufacturing and construction Purchasers Managers Index (PMI) figures all came out lower than expected with both the manufacturing and construction industries contracting which clearly underlines the weakness in the UK's economy at present. In other news, the Bank of England kept interest rates and quantitative easing on hold as was widely expected. There is very little data out of the UK today and the focus will be split between markets expectations from Spain and the monthly jobs report released in the US. The potential for a lot of volatility remains so please call in now for the latest news and rates.

The euro had a strong week pushing through the 1.30 level against the US dollar and strengthening to 1.242 against sterling as the markets continue to speculate that a full Spanish sovereign bailout is imminent. The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates on hold at 0.75% was also viewed positively and the comments from the president of the ECB stating that the euro was “irreversible” and that the central bank was ready to start buying bonds pushed the euro higher still. On a more negative tone, the unemployment rate in Europe has risen to a record high of 11.4%. The euro continues to remain strong in anticipation of a Spanish bailout request; but, if the Spanish government continues to delay the request you can expect the markets to get very nervous and in turn a significant increase in volatility, so call in now for the latest news and changes in the euro rate.

The US dollar had a mixed week as global risk sentiment shifted between risk appetite and risk aversion. There was a raft of better than expected data out of the US which included an unexpectedly positive manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data release and the change in the level of the number of people employed in the last month also increased by more than economists predicted. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes were released yesterday evening and will be closely analysed by investors following last month's decision to implement a third round of quantitative easing. Non-farm payrolls data released will be the most significant data announced globally today as investors hope for signs that the world's biggest economy is recovering. Please call in now for the latest news and a live update

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar performed poorly this week following the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s to cut interest rates by 0.25%, as well as trade balance figures and retail sales data both missing market estimates. The South African rand also struggled due to the on-going unrest caused by the mining strikes. Overnight we had the Bank of Japan's rate decision, press conference and monetary policy statement and later on today we have a raft of data released from Canada including employment figures and data showing the change in the value of new building permits issued. Call in now for the latest news and a live quote.



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