Friday, 7 December 2012

Smart Currency Rates and Comments 7th December 2012 | Surprise talk of interest rate cuts for the euro


Sterling

Having struggled last week, sterling remained fairly steady throughout this week and enjoyed a rally against the euro as the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the possibility of interest rate cuts in the Eurozone . A series of UK Purchase Manager Index (PMI) data released earlier in the week drove prices with better than expected manufacturing data being counteracted somewhat by poor construction results. Nervousness ahead of the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts and the Autumn mini budget weighed on sterling's relative strength, seeing a drop against the euro to 1.2270 at one stage. However, sterling actually strengthened after the release, despite concerns being raised over the future of the UK's AAA credit rating. It seems as though most of the downside was already been priced into sterling's exchange rate. Manufacturing production data showing the change in the total inflation is due to be released later today, with a -0.2% prediction. Call in to find out the latest rates with your trader now.


Euro

Recent optimism over the future of the Eurozone due to the apparent resolution to the Greek debt crisis drove prices to a seven week high early in the week; but this optimism fell away yesterday bringing the euro down with it. At yesterday's ECB press conference the President was unprecedented in his negativity, not only saying that economic weakness was likely to continue, but also that the central bank had discussed lowering interest rates. This surprise news caused the 17-nation currency to drop half a cent in a few hours. The ECB president is due to speak again today at a conference, in light of yesterday's surprise news, traders will be listening nervously and it will take a huge amount of positivity to turn yesterday's move around. Get in touch now for the most up to date price.

US dollar

Over the week the US dollar had been losing ground against the euro and sterling due to concerning news regarding the “fiscal cliff” in the US, though losses against its key trading partners were pared off as both the euro and the pound lost value yesterday. The main focus in the US continues to be the looming so-called fiscal-cliff. If the disagreement between the Democrats and Republicans continues the markets will start to get very nervous. The US dollar rally yesterday was emphasized by better than expected unemployment data – though many analysts are putting this down to the post Hurricane Sandy effect. More labour data will be released today in the form of the highly influential non-farm pay rolls data. With a mix of positive and negative labour data released over the past couple of days, the markets will look closely at this release for influence. Call in now to discuss what might happen with your trader. 


Worldwide

Elsewhere, it was a mixed week for the higher yielding currencies as a play-off between risk aversion and appetite continued to influence demand for typically riskier assets. The Swiss franc was a surprise mover, reaching 1.2140 versus the euro on the news that Credit Suisse will start charging negative interest rates on accounts which hold Swiss francs. The Japanese yen continues to remain volatile versus most major trading peers as speculation that any parliamentary change will lead to an increase in quantitative easing remains rife. The Australian dollar was one of the biggest movers early in the week as a gloomier global economic outlook increased risk aversion. The decision to cut the country's interest rate to 3% had a fairly muted effect as comments from the bank suggested a further rate cut is highly unlikely. Overnight we also saw the release of Australian trade balance data. Further data this morning includes Swiss foreign currency reserves, and later we will see the latest employment data coming out of Canada. Call in now to see how this has impacted the market and to get a live price.

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