Sterling under pressure | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

It was a torrid day for sterling yesterday as it lost ground for the sixth day straight against the euro and experienced its greatest depreciation in two weeks against the US dollar. Traders seem to be betting against sterling ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) meeting. Expectations are that the Bank of England will be relatively proactive in their policy decisions when compared to their counterparts in the US and the Eurozone. Whilst it seems unlikely that we will see an increase in quantitative easing at this stage (all 9 members voted against an increase last month) and the MPC has already expressed a commitment to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future, investors will be paying close attention to the forward guidance issued as they look for hints as to what policy adjustments we can expect as we approach the autumn. The release will be key in determining sterling’s performance in the near future with a number of key figures predicting further sterling weakness. There is little in the way of important economic releases emanating from the UK today, however you can expect sterling to remain under pressure in the run up to Thursdays announcement. Call in now to track on-going market volatility ahead of Thursday's events.

Euro

A further batch of positive data out of the euro zone meant that the euro logged another generally positive day, adding to the gentle momentum that the 17-nation currency has been building. Data released yesterday showed consumer confidence across the euro zone hit the highest levels in 15 months in July, reaching a rate of 92.5, up from 91.3 in June. The most notable results were seen in Germany, where levels were at the highest seen since September 2007. This continuing evidence suggests that the worst of the European recession has passed and is henceforth taking pressure of the European Central Bank to increase its easing policies. Today we have the release of monthly European inflation data, as well as unemployment statistics. Although the data is important, markets will have one eye firmly on Thursdays ECB meeting. Get in touch for the latest euro rates.

US dollar

The US dollar remained flimsy yesterday ahead of a very data-heavy few days for the world's largest economy. The dollar did strengthen against a weak sterling and spiked briefly against the euro before quickly relinquishing the ground it had made. Following the previously cautious approach from the Chairman of the Federal Bank with regards to the tapering back of the US bond-buying programme, investors appear reluctant to back the dollar before this evening's Federal Open Market Committee statement. Should the Chairman’s comments suggest that a tapering back in the near future is likely then expect to see the dollar strengthen significantly, however it may continue to struggle if we see further hesitancy and commitment to an accommodative monetary policy. Tomorrow also sees the release of employment data alongside quarterly Advance GDP data during the afternoon. Changes in monetary policy will only be affected in response to an improvement in economic conditions and the second quarter GDP figures are sure to play a key part in this. Call your trader now to see if the Federal Reserve can spark a change in US dollar fortunes.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, a big mover yesterday was the Australian dollar. A statement from the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia eluded towards a rate cut at the next policy-makers' meeting, scheduled for the 6th of August. Following these comments the Australian currency fell against all of its 16 most-traded peers, and to the weakest level in three years against is US counterpart. The Indian rupee lost ground against all of its 31 most-traded peers, and hit 10-year lows against sterling. The big shift was in response to the central bank keeping interest rates unchanged and saying that steps taken to tighten cash supply this month will be rolled back.  The Swedish krona also struggled yesterday after GDP data showed that the Scandinavian economy had contracted unexpectedly over the last quarter. Despite the news, markets remain confident that Sweden will recover in the coming months, with the economic situation in the euro zone, an important export destination, starting to show signs of life.  Overnight we saw business confidence data out of New Zealand, and later on today we will have monthly GDP data out of Canada. Get in touch for live rates.

Sterling slips as we await Thursdays BoE meeting | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had a poorish day yesterday, weakening against the US dollar and against the euro. Positive data from the Confederation of British Industries revealed the first rise in UK retail sales for 5 months, benefitting sterling in the morning. Whilst these figures were better than expected, overall sales volumes are still relatively low and growth is expected to slow in August so the effect of this data was limited. Sterling fluctuated to a degree during the rest of the day, largely in response to events elsewhere. The Monetary Policy Committee's August statement released on Thursday is likely to be the most influential release of the week as traders look to assess how much credence to give the notion of a sustainable recovery in the UK. Any hints as to alterations in monetary policy will impact significantly on Sterling performance as traders look to the statement for an indication of intent. There is little being released in the way of influential UK data between now and then so investor speculation and events elsewhere are likely to drive market movement. Call your trader now to monitor sterling performance.

Euro

A quiet day for the euro yesterday. Markets are tentative ahead of the Central Bank's rate decision on Thursday, and with no significant releases of data, the euro held ground against the majority of its peers. It lost ground against the US dollar, however, as markets speculate that the Federal Reserve will possibly announce plans to reduce stimulus later this week. Today should see a little more movement from the euro, with retail data coming out of German acting as a good inflation indicator, and quarterly GDP data coming out of Spain. However, expect markets to continue on a cautious note as we look towards Thursday's rate decision.

US dollar

The US Dollar appreciated against most of its major trading partners yesterday afternoon in response to better than expected Pending Home Sales data and increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will taper its bond-buying programme this autumn. Whilst the figures did reveal a decline, this decline was not as big as expected after reaching the highest level in over six years in June. Speculation surrounding a reduction in asset-purchasing came following better economic data and more positive data will further contribute to this trend. Crucially, the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on Thursday is likely to go some way to encourage or discourage further speculation to this effect. In the meantime this afternoon's Consumer Confidence data, another leading indicator of economic health, is likely to cause short-term market movement if figures differ greatly from expectations. Call your trader to see whether the dollar comeback is imminent.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar had another strong day yesterday, rising for the third consecutive day and climbing against the majority of its major peers. The strong performance was down to crude oil, the nation's biggest export, trading above $100 a barrel for the 18th day in a row. The performance is concluding a strong month for the Canadian currency, which has logged gains of 2.5% against its US counterpart this month. The Japanese yen was also a standout performer, with a 3% plunge in the Japanese stock index leading to a hike in demand for the safe haven currency. Strong monthly retail sales were also a catalyst for the yen's strong performance. The New Zealand dollar struggled yesterday, losing out against the majority of its most traded peers, as the Prime Minister, John Key, claimed that it was 'overvalued' and that the government would welcome a slide. Overnight eyes were on Australia, with monthly building approvals statistics being followed by a statement from the central bank governor. Later today we have monthly raw material prices data out of Canada, a good overall inflation indicator. Get in touch for live rates.

Sterling faces uncertain week | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling experienced a fairly steady day on Friday in the absence of any real data of note being released. Looking ahead to this week, all eyes will be on Thursday as the Bank of England will meet for the second time with Mark Carney as the new Governor. Last week there was increased speculation that we could see a possible change of stance with regards to monetary policy so traders will be watching even more closely than usual. The markets will likely be nervous in the run up to the release and then we could see big moves once the Monetary Policy Committee have announced any changes or lack there of. Further commitment to keeping interest rates at 0.5% or any increased likelihood of an increase in asset-purchasing will likely cause sterling to depreciate sharply. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data is also released on Thursday before the announcement from the Bank of England so could create increased volatility first thing . We have seen moderate growth in the manufacturing sector during the last two months, however recovery has been far from convincing and this data will have an effect on faith in a sterling recovery. Finally, Construction Purchasing Managers Index figures will be released on Friday and have a similar capacity to affect performance. Call in now to see how market chatter affects the pound ahead of key releases on Thursday.

Euro

The euro ended last week on a high, holding the gains it had achieved against its main trading partners earlier in the week. The euro's performance on Friday was unaffected by slightly lower-than-forecast German import price data which showed that prices had fallen by 0.8% from May to June. Following some slightly more positive data emanating from Europe last week which caused the euro to gather a head of steam, the general sentiment is a tentative growth of confidence in the market but it will be looking towards the the European Central Bank's (ECB) monthly decision on monetary policy on Thursday. Before then, we have unemployment data out of Germany, and manufacturing data out of Spain and Italy. Call in for news and live rates on the euro.

US dollar

The US dollar traded in a fairly narrow range on Friday in absence of any significant market release. Revised Consumer Sentiment figures came in marginally better than expected, but had only caused slight variation for the dollar.  We have a raft of employment data released this week with the the headline release being the non-farm payrolls data released on Friday which has caused a great deal of volatility in the past - especially in light of the Federal Banks rhetoric that monetary policy will stay loose until the labour market shows significant improvement. This rhetoric will be scrutinised to a greater extent when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet on Wednesday. Traders hope that the FOMC statement could well give greater clarity as to when the tapering of its asset purchasing program may begin. Advance second quarter GDP figures, which also come out on Wednesday, are estimated to show growth of 1.1% although some key figures have expressed more pessimistic views following the inconsistent run of economic data that we have seen from the US recently. Other data released this week includes figures showing the number of homes pending sale, consumer sentiment statistics and manufacturing PMI. An extremely busy week for the US, so call your trader now to see if the dollar can start to make up some of the ground it has lost.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, Friday saw the Japanese yen end a seesaw week on a high, as a drop in Asian stock market confidence boosted demand for the safe haven currency.. The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars all performed well as traders bet that the Federal Bank will not tighten monetary policy at its meeting this week. Tonight we will hear statements from the governors of both the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada and building approvals data from Australia which could well cause significant market movements in the market for the respective currencies.. Other data this week includes  business confidence figures from New Zealand, inflation data out of Australia and monthly GDP data out of Canada which is expected to show growth of 0.2% . Get in touch for the latest rates.

Mixed fortunes for sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

After maintaining an upward trajectory for most of last week, sterling experienced more mixed fortunes this week. The pound performed well from Monday as Prime Minister David Cameron announced that improving economic conditions may allow the Coalition Government to implement tax cuts in the near future. Varying levels of trader optimism were seen in the run up to the release of UK GDP figures, which came out yesterday and revealed that the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter. These figures largely conformed to key predictions, however the possibility still remains that the Monetary Policy Committee may vote in favour of further quantitative easing when they meet again in August and the figures did little to play down that possibility, causing sterling to drop sharply against the majority of its major peers. Additionally, revisions of previous GDP figures revealed that recession in the UK was in fact worse than first thought, which further contributed to sterling weakness. Overall, sterling has certainly plateaued to a degree after performing well last week and we will need to see further strong economic data coming from the UK to maintain hopes of a sustainable recovery, persuade investors that the Monetary Policy Committee will not loosen monetary policy in August. If they do it would weaken the pound. There is little data of note being released today, but further movement may be seen as traders take stock of the GDP data and react to on-going speculation regarding future increases in quantitative easing. Call your trader now to track sterling performance.

Euro

A reasonable strong week for the euro was topped off yesterday when a survey showed better-than-expected business confidence coming out of Germany. Earlier in the week we had strong manufacturing and consumer confidence data coming out of the 17-member state. All these factors are suggestions that the Eurozone may be on course for a slight recovery in the second half of the year, and confidence in the market is quietly building. These are still early days, however, and there is every possibility that the region's six-quarter recession will continue and drag into a seventh. Today is fairly quiet data-wise in the Eurozone, with the only event of note is the import price statistics coming out of Germany. Get in touch for live euro rates.

US dollar

As expected, the US dollar sensitivity to economic data has been magnified recently following comments from the Chairman of the Federal Bank expressed his commitment to an accommodative monetary policy and this has caused it to be another tough week for the dollar. Early weakness was experienced in response to worse than expected existing home sales data, causing the dollar to slide against the majority of its major peers and notably to trade at one month lows against sterling. Some positive figures were seen mid-week, with increases seen in new home sales and better than expected growth in the manufacturing sector, prompted a slightly better performance. A survey of leading economists released this week revealed that that around 50% of those surveyed believe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would reduce the pace of bond-buying by $20 billion per month in September. Such a result would boost dollar performance in the medium term and as a result this survey had a positive effect, but a reduction is by no means assured at this stage and speculation will continue as further economic data comes through. Finally, yesterday's Unemployment Claims data and Core Durable Goods Orders figures both fell short of expectations and failed to give the dollar a boost. Whilst medium term forecasts are still geared towards a US dollar recovery, we will need to see some improved data coming through before progress is made in the short term. The only real data of note coming in before the weekend is revised consumer sentiment data being released this afternoon by the University of Michigan. Call in now to see how the US dollar reacts to the latest data releases. 

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the big mover early in the week was the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency showed notable gains against the majority of its peers on Tuesday, with significantly better-than-forecast retail sales data injecting confidence into the Canadian market. This confidence continued, as the Canadian currency held steady through Wednesday, and gained further still yesterday off the back of oil price speculation. The New Zealand dollar, after a fairly weak day on Wednesday, was the standout performer yesterday off the back of the Reserve Bank's interest rate decision. The rate was held at 2.50%, but investors were left with the impression that come the first quarter of 2014, rates could well be on the rise. The Japanese yen had a bit of a seesaw week, with demand for the low risk currency fluctuating as confidence in global stock markets wobbled. Today, inflation data out of Tokyo this lunchtime will be likely to have an impact on the Japanese yen. Otherwise, a fairly quiet day. Get in touch for the latest rates.

Will today's Growth figures affect sterling? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling showed signs of weakness yesterday morning but largely recovered during the afternoon, until it fell sharply against the US dollar in the evening. The weakness experienced earlier in the day was seen in response to speculation by Goldman Sachs that there is a 50% chance that the Monetary Policy Committee will loosen monetary policy when they meet again in August. Sterling received a boost from the minutes of the last MPC meeting when it was revealed that the members voted unanimously in favour of maintaining the quantitative easing programme rather than increasing it. If there was a vote in favour of further asset-buying at the next meeting then this would have the opposite effect. However, after maintaining a reasonably strong upward trajectory for the past week sterling was still close to monthly highs against the dollar by the close of trading in London. Today sees the most important sterling data release of the week in the form of second quarter Growth figures. These are largely predicted to show consecutive growth, but expect volatility should we see any significant divergence between average predictions of 0.6% growth and the actual figure. Call in now to see how the Growth figures affect sterling performance.

Euro

There were signs of life coming from the 17-member state yesterday as strong manufacturing data out of Germany and France bolstered demand for the region's assets. It triggering the euro to climb against the majority of its most-traded peers, and to 1-months highs against the US dollar before tumbling as Barack Obama began to speak. The euro gains were not as considerable as they might otherwise have been if it were not for the conservative monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank. Nevertheless, the data out of Europe so far this week is encouraging, and could signal the start of a slight recovery in the latter parts of this year. The significant piece of data our of Europe today is the results from the German business climate survey, a good indication of wider European economic conditions. Get in touch for the latest euro news.

US dollar

The US dollar had a mixed day yesterday trading at variable rates against sterling and euro throughout the day, but strengthened aggressively in the evening as Barack Obama began to speak about the US economy. The day's economic data releases were marginally more positive than expected, with increases seen in new home sales and better than expected growth in the manufacturing sector. This prompted moderate dollar strength during the afternoon. The US dollar strengthened yesterday evening following comments from the US President on the state of the US economy where we suggested the US had “made it through the worst of yesterday's winds“. Unemployment claims data is being released this afternoon and is likely to impact on the US dollar's performance today as investors will be interested to see how the world's largest economy is faring in its pursuit of an unemployment rate of 6.5%. Additionally, today's monthly Core Durable Goods Orders data is a leading indicator of US production levels and has a similar potential to have a substantial impact on the performance of the dollar. Call in now to see if this fresh economic data can reverse US dollar fortunes.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the major movements were shown by the New Zealand and Australian dollars yesterday, as the commodity-backed currencies stumbled for the first time in four days following the release of weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing data which showed further declines through July, hitting the lowest level for 11 months. Strong local trade balance figures out of Japan yesterday morning were not enough to prevent the yen falling against its major trading partners. Investors took confidence from tentative signs of recovery out of Europe, causing demand to fall for the low risk, low yield Japanese currency. The Canadian dollar held firm on yesterday's strong performance. Last night the Reserve Bank of New Zealand met to make its decision on interest rates, and later today we have consumer inflation data coming out of Japan. Get in touch for the latest rates.

Sterling steady as we await UK Growth data tomorrow | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling traded within a narrower range yesterday as we saw a decrease in volatility across the currency markets. The pound has made reasonably consistent gains since last week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes were released. A report from the British Bankers' Association released yesterday morning showed that UK mortgage approvals increased during June, although this increase was marginally lower than expected. As a result, the data had little overall effect and sterling made good the slight losses it experienced earlier in the day against the US dollar and weakened very slightly against the euro. Preliminary UK growth data for the second quarter will be released tomorrow and is likely to have a strong bearing on performance as investors look to ascertain how much faith to put in a sustained economic recovery for the UK. Ahead of that, the Confederation of British Industry releases data detailing expected industrial orders over the next three months this morning, which may also have cause a degree of volatility. Call in now to see how sterling reacts. 

Euro

The euro performed reasonably well yesterday, making modest gains against sterling and the US dollar. Consumer confidence data came through marginally better than expected, which fared well for the single currency. Having experienced little in the way of influential data coming from the Eurozone when compared with the UK and US, today sees a buck in the trend as investors will look to German and French Flash Manufacturing data as key indicators of economic strength. Marginal contraction is predicted in both countries, however varying figures, especially emanating from Germany could give rise to sharp movement. Call in now to see how to track the reaction from the euro. 

US dollar

After a tough few days for the US dollar following on from the Chairman of the Federal Bank’s report to Congress last week, yesterday provided some respite. The dollar saw little movement against sterling and weakened slightly against the euro. A Bloomberg survey of leading economists revealed that that around half of those surveyed believed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would reduce the pace of bond-buying by $20 billion per month in September. Such a result would boost dollar performance in the medium term, but is by no means assured at this stage. Furthermore, it may still be some time before interest rates are increased following any reduction of asset-purchasing and whilst the outlook is generally positive for a US recovery in the long term, it may be some time before we see any substantial dollar rally. Whilst uncertainty reigns, speculation by key figures and incoming economic data releases will continue to cause volatility. One of such releases will be occurring this afternoon and comes in the form of New Home Sales data from the US. Monday's Existing Home Sales data contributed to dollar weakness on Monday and traders will look to today's figures as a further indicator of economic strength or lack of economic strength. Call in now to keep pace with market movements.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the big mover yesterday was the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency showed notable gains against the majority of its most-traded peers as a result of significantly better than expected retail sales data. The retail figures showed an impressive 1.9% increase in May, the biggest monthly jump in 3 years, quadrupling the 0.4% projections. These figures, off the back of strong wholesale and manufacturing figures last week, all point toward less slack for the Bank of Canada to continue its generous monetary policy. The Japanese yen, after a strong day yesterday, tumbled against all of the majors as certain over-exuberance receded following the weekend's election result, in which fiscal and monetary policy stimulus supporter, Shinzo Abe, was given the nod from the populace. Overnight we saw trade balance data out of Japan and New Zealand, as well as Australian inflation data. This evening we also have short term interest rate decision out of New Zealand. Get in touch for the latest rates.

Will sterling benefit from the birth of a Royal baby? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Even before the announcement of a new Royal baby and the third in line to the throne, Sterling continued its upward trajectory yesterday as hopes for a sustainable economic recovery in the UK increased ahead of Thursday's second quarter Growth figures. The pound made gains against the majority of its major trading partners and most notably continued to strengthen against the US dollar for the fifth day in a row as it was traded at the highest rate since June. Prime Minister David Cameron announced that improving economic conditions may allow the Coalition Government to implement tax cuts in the near future, lending further weight to sterling optimism. Thursday's Growth data will be integral in determining whether we see sterling continue to appreciate. Further growth would lend support to the pound by giving credence to the notion of a sustainable economic recovery for the UK. Predictions range from around 0.3% to 0.8% growth, with most key figures expecting 0.6%. Speculation ahead of the release will continue to affect sterling performance and solid growth figures are likely to help sterling maintain its strong recent performance, but bear in mind that if the figures undermine the positivity seen in recent days then we are likely to see a sharp decline. Additionally, this morning sees the release of Mortgage Approval data from the British Bankers' Association, which has the potential to have a more immediate impact on performance. Call in now to see whether sterling strength has continued.

Euro

The euro's performance was largely dictated by events elsewhere yesterday as it made moderate movements to strengthen against the US dollar – reaching its highest level in a week – and weaken against sterling. The seventeen-nation currency derived some support from news that Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho and his Government will remain in office for their full term as opposed to having to face elections which would have put the Portuguese compliance with their bailout plan in jeopardy. This is certainly positive news for the Eurozone, but perhaps did not have a strong an impact on the markets as events elsewhere. Not much influential data comes out today, but looking ahead to tomorrow, German and French flash manufacturing data will impact on euro performance. Call in now to track euro movement and for a live rate.

US dollar

The US dollar performed poorly yesterday as a combination of a persistent uncertainty regarding the possible tapering back of the bond-buying programme and worse than expected existing home sales data caused the dollar to slide against the majority of its major peers. As expected, the US dollar's sensitivity to economic data has increased following Ben Bernanke's expressed commitment to an accommodative monetary policy and the reaction yesterday was negative. Most notably the US dollar traded at its lowest rate this month against a resurgent sterling. Whilst there is not a great deal being released today in the way of influential data impacting on the world's largest economy, the temperamental dollar may still see movement in response to speculation regarding future monetary policy. Tomorrow sees the release of existing home sales data, which – as with the home sales data released yesterday – has the potential to cause further dollar volatility. Call in now to keep pace with dollar volatility.

Worldwide

Monday was a quiet day for the release of economic data elsewhere in the world. Sterling held its own or gained against the majority of other currencies as the feel good factor seems to be sticking to sterling for the short term. The main release today are the retail sales figures in Canada which are expected to show a modest improvement of 0.3%. Call in to see how the birth of a Royal Baby and the third in line to the throne is affecting sterling throughout the world!

Will Sterling's good run continue? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling ended last week on a largely positive note having risen for four days straight against the US dollar and made notable gains against the euro. Sterling benefited from the Monetary Policy Committee minutes released on Wednesday which showed all nine members voting against increasing quantitative easing. Sterling also received some support from Friday's Public Sector Net Borrowing data that revealed a slight reduction in the deficit during the month of June. Furthermore, a number of key figures predict that key UK GDP data due this Thursday will show an increase in growth during the second quarter giving performance an extra boost. Looking ahead to this week, the aforementioned GDP figures are likely to have a substantial impact upon sterling strength should they differ from last week's predictions. Outside of this, there is not a huge amount of data being released this week with the potential to impact performance. Mortgage approval data – a leading indicator of demand for housing – has the potential to have some influence when it is released on Tuesday, but the GDP data on Thursday along with on-going speculation on future monetary policy are likely to fuel market movement. Call in now to track sterling's performance this week.

Euro

The Euro stayed fairly range bound on Friday with no data of high impact being released. Although German Chancellor Merkel gave positive vibes whilst discussing the economy in Germany and the euro-zone, it had a muted effect on the markets. Perhaps with her looking for re-election in September, it was expected that she would remain optimistic. We have a quiet day again for the euro today, but with French and Germany manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday and Germanys Business Climate survey on Thursday, any unexpected data is likely to cause volatility for the currency. There are also increasing concerns for southern state debts and additional funding requirements. Portugal, Cyprus and Greece seem to be at the top of this list and could significantly increase instability for the Eurozone. So call your trade for the latest rates and updates.

US dollar

After a highly volatile week, the US dollar weakened on Friday on the back of on-going concerns about the tapering back of US asset-purchasing. Now that Fed Chairman Bernanke has stated that US monetary policy will be highly accommodative, the US dollar seems to be highly sensitive to new economic data and speculation amongst investors. Despite the fact that ratings agency Moody's upgrading the AAA credit rating of the world's largest economy from negative to stable, the currency lost ground against most of its major peers. Given the current sensitivity to new data, this week we can expect the release of Existing Home Sales data on Monday to spark movement as these figures serve as a leading indicator of economic health. Likewise, New Home Sales data on Wednesday is likely to have some impact on the dollar's performance. Finally, on Thursday traders will look to Unemployment claims data to reveal how the US is faring in its quest to meet unemployment targets. Expect plenty of volatility amidst a raft of data and on-going uncertainty about future monetary policy. Call in now to keep pace with market movements.

Worldwide

Elsewhere the Canadian dollar weakened on Friday following a government report showing inflation lower than the Bank of Canada’s target of 2%. The New Zealand dollar gained momentum with the People’s Bank of China (New Zealand’s largest trading partner) announced it is going to remove limits on lending rates. The Yen weakened against the US dollar leading up to upper-house elections in Japan, which will be closely watched. The South African rand also gained strength against the US dollar amidst doubts that the US may reduce stimulus as early as expected.  Today we have core retail sales from Canada and New Zealand trade balance figures. Tomorrow we will have Chinese Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers index along with New Zealand interest rate statement. Call now the latest news and updates. 

Another roller coaster week for sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling had a roller coaster week dropping to  a four month low against the euro and struggling against the dollar earlier this week as weaker than expected inflation data appeared to give the Bank of England more licence to keep monetary policy loose. This meant that all eyes were on Wednesdays release of the minutes from the first Monetary Policy Committee meeting with the new Governor Mark Carney in charge. What was revealed caught the market by surprise in that all 9 members voted in favour of maintaining the Bank of England's quantitative easing target instead of increasing it. This caused sterling to jump over a cent against the US dollar and euro as many key figures expected the vote to show several members (including the new Governor Mark Carney) to vote in favour of increasing the quantitative easing program, rather than the unanimous decision against this that was revealed. Sterling was also boosted by the news that unemployment claims had dropped by over 20,000 in June, whilst retail sales figures released yesterday came out as expected. This morning sees the release of UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data and a high deficit can have a negative effect on sterling's performance. Call in now to track developments.

Euro

It seems that the euro is not master of its own destiny this week as it continues to play a largely reactionary role whilst events in the UK and USA continue to dominate. The euro actually faired fairly well despite German economic sentiment proving to be worse than forecast. Current account data, showing the difference in value between imports and exports came in slightly worse than expected. Monthly German manufacturing data may impact performance of the single currency today. Additionally, it is worth noting that we have G20 meetings taking place on Saturday and discussions therein, may have implications for the euro and its major trading partners. Call in now for live rates and up to date information.

US dollar

The US dollar had a poor start to the week as retails sales figures came in much lower than anticipated. Whilst typical estimates put growth at 0.8%, the figures revealed growth to be only at 0.4%, underlining the fact that recovery has been less convincing in the second quarter for the US. Many had hoped for some clarity regarding when the Federal Bank may look to start tapering its quantitate easing program when the Chairman of the Federal Reserve addressed congress this week; however, the Chairman asserted that a tapering of bond-buying must be based on consistent economic data and that a slowing in asset-purchasing would be likely to happen if US inflation made a determined move towards the 2% target (which this week came out showing an inflationary figure of only 0.2%). Some respite came yesterday as employment data released showed a better than expected drop in US unemployment claims in the previous month. However, whilst Bernanke remains committed to an accommodative policy the US dollar may continue to oscillate until we see the cumulative positive data that the Federal Open Market Committee is looking for. After an eventful week, there is less provocative data on offer today, although given sharp movements we have seen in recent days, some further volatility is not implausible. Call in now to keep pace with market movement.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar dominated much of the headlines this week as it weakened on Monday alongside falling commodity prices. Whilst manufacturing sales figures came out as expected, the Bank of Canada (with its new Governor at the helm) suggested that the economy remained sluggish and all but ruled out a potential interest hike in the near future causing the Canadian dollar to weaken further still. The Australian dollar performed well following the release of the minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia rate setting meeting which outlined the central banks sentiment that interest rates were at an appropriate level, henceforth, seemingly removing the possibility of another rate cut in the near term. The Polish zloty also performed well following new government plans that will widen the budget deficit in order to boost the economy. Core inflation data released out of Canada will be the main release on the agenda, but, call Smart today for the latest news, and live quotes, for your currency.

Sterling benefits from BoE surprise | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling appreciated sharply yesterday morning in response to a double dose of positive data. The Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes revealed a surprise 9-0 vote in favour of maintaining the Bank of England's quantitative easing target instead of increasing it. This caused sterling to jump over a cent against the US dollar and euro as many key figures expected the vote to show several members (including the new Governor Mark Carney) to vote in favour of increasing the quantitative easing program, rather than the unanimous decision against this that was revealed. Performance was further boosted by data showing that unemployment claims dropped by over 20,000 in June, a much greater reduction than predicted. Sterling continued to perform well yesterday afternoon, trading at 1.16 against the euro and hovering above 1.52 against the US dollar. This morning sees the release of monthly UK retail sales data, which has the potential to either check or reinforce today's optimism should figures differ significantly from predictions. Call in now to stay on top of continuing market reaction.

Euro

It seems that the euro is not master of its own destiny this week as it continues to play a largely reactionary role whilst events in the UK and USA continue to dominate. The euro weakened against sterling considerably yesterday morning and continued to decline throughout the day. The euro experienced more mixed fortunes in its performance against the dollar with reasonable movement seen in both directions, but little net movement, by the close of trading in London. Eurozone current account data, which details the difference in value between imported and exported goods may play some role in the euro's performance today, as might Spanish 10-year bond data, but it is likely that events elsewhere may continue to dominate the headlines and drive market movement. Call in now to keep pace with developments and to get a live rate. It seems that the euro is not master of its own destiny this week as it continues to play a largely reactionary role whilst events in the UK and USA continue to dominate. The euro weakened against sterling considerably yesterday morning and continued to decline throughout the day. The euro experienced more mixed fortunes in its performance against the dollar with reasonable movement seen in both directions, but little net movement, by the close of trading in London. Eurozone current account data, which details the difference in value between imported and exported goods may play some role in the euro's performance today, as might Spanish 10-year bond data, but it is likely that events elsewhere may continue to dominate the headlines and drive market movement. Call in now to keep pace with developments and to get a live rate.

US dollar

If investors were hoping for a clearer expression of intent from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, then they were certainly disappointed by his somewhat illusive report to Congress. Rather than laying out plans for future reductions in asset-buying, Bernanke remained accommodative and stated that the programme may be increased or tapered depending on economic conditions. Going forward this means that the US dollar is likely to be sensitive to changes in economic data in particular inflation data, as Bernanke stated that a slowing in asset-purchasing would be likely to happen if US inflation made a determined move towards the 2% target. Looking at the rates, the US dollar depreciated considerably against sterling in response to sterling strength, whilst a more mixed performance was registered against the euro. Bernanke will continue to testify to Congress today as US unemployment claims data is released as well as Philadelphia manufacturing data. Expect further volatility as markets react. Call in now to stay on top of developments and to receive a live rate.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar struggled yesterday after the Bank of Canada (with its new Governor at the helm) suggested that the economy remained sluggish and all but ruled out a potential interest hike in the near future. The Japanese yen struggled somewhat yesterday as confidence in the global markets grew. The Turkish lira was in the limelight once more as investors continue to speculate as to what action the central bank will take in the rate setting meeting next week. Overnight we saw the release of business confidence figures from Australia  and later on today wholesales sales figures may influence the relative strength of the Canadian dollar. Call Smart today for the latest news, and live quotes, for your currency.

A difficult day for sterling lies ahead | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Consumer Price Index data from the UK, which gives an indication as to the current level of inflation, came in marginally worse than expected yesterday. This impacted on sterling's performance as traders hedged their bets in the run up to the today's publication of the minutes from Governor Mark Carney's inaugural Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Inflation has an important impact on performance as higher inflation should deter the MPC from further quantitative easing, which would devalue the currency, whilst lower inflation data would be seen as giving decision makers the go-ahead for increased asset-buying. The sterling dollar rate fluctuated throughout the day as both currencies reacted to negative stimuli, whilst sterling weakened steadily against the euro throughout the day. All eyes will be on the Bank of England report released this morning as we wait to see which way Carney and the other members voted on further quantitative easing. Call in now to track market reaction to the minutes and to get a live rate.

Euro

The euro performed surprisingly well yesterday despite German economic sentiment proving to be worse than forecast. As sterling and the US dollar falter ahead of today's events, the single currency made steady progress yesterday and improved its position against both currencies. Events in the UK and the US are likely to steal the limelight today and will likely play a much greater role on influencing the relative strength on the euro as opposed to the data emanating from Europe in the short term although we do have a key vote in Greece on further government cuts to public expenditure. The only significant data release will be the German 10-year bond auction held today. Call in now to see how the seventeen-nation currency reacts.

US dollar

The US dollar struggled yesterday as speculation grew that Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will continue to deter hopes that we can expect a speedy scaling back of US bond-buying when he delivers his monetary policy report to Congress over the course of today and tomorrow. His words last week made traders hesitant to back the dollar ahead of the report. The US dollar fell consistently against the euro, whilst the dollar sterling rate experienced volatility, with sharp movements in both directions as both currencies struggled. US Consumer Price Index data, a key inflation indicator, failed to have a significant impact as predictions proved to be largely accurate for the month of June at 0.2%. Whilst the Chairman of the Federal Reserve’s report to Congress is expected to steal the headlines across the Atlantic, we also have another member of the Federal Open Market Committee speaking as well as a the release of the Beige book which will reveal the state of the local economies from all 12 Federal Reserve Banks. Call in now to see how the report is received. 

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was one of the best performers yesterday following the release of the minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia rate setting meeting which outlined the central banks sentiment that interest rates were at an appropriate level, henceforth, seemingly removing the possibility of another rate cut in the near term.  The Polish zloty also performed well yesterday following new government plans that will widen the budget deficit in order to boost the economy. The Canadian dollar remained fairly range bound as manufacturing sales figures came out as expected, however, you can expect the markets to become nervous ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate setting meeting and press conference this afternoon. Call Smart today for the latest news, and live quotes, for your currency.

Sterling still feeling the heat | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling experienced some movement yesterday, losing some ground against the US dollar during the morning, but largely making good those losses in the afternoon. There was also little overall movement against the euro as data released from Smart Currency partner Rightmove Plc showed that asking prices for UK housing had risen again to a record high. The most imposing event on the horizon for sterling is the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England's most recent policy meeting, which may give traders cause to react as everyone looks to get the measure of Mark Carney. Should it transpire that Carney voted in favour of further quantitative easing then we are likely to see a sharp decline for sterling. In the meantime, today sees the release of Consumer Price Index data, which is the most important indication of the current level of inflation in the UK. Higher than expected inflation may lend some support to sterling ahead of the release of the policy meeting minutes tomorrow, whilst lower figures would have an inverse effect. Call in now for a live rate from your trader and to keep pace with developments.

Euro

Yesterday saw little in the way of influential data emanating from the Eurozone and its performance was largely defined by events elsewhere. Little net movement was seen against sterling or the US dollar by the close of trading in London. Today we can look to German economic sentiment data to impact upon performance as traders looks for signs of optimism from investors and analysts in Europe's largest economy. Today also sees the release of Core Consumer Price Index and trade balance data from the Eurozone, but it is Germany's economic sentiment data that is likely to play the biggest role. Call in now to track its effect and to receive a live rate.

US dollar

The US dollar enjoyed a reasonably strong morning yesterday, making reasonable gains against sterling and euro as a number of key figures made optimistic predictions for the US retail sales data. However, earlier gains were quickly wiped out when the figures revealed less growth than expected. Whilst typical estimates put growth at 0.8%, the figures revealed growth to be slightly lower at 0.4%, underlining the fact that recovery has been less convincing in the second quarter for the US. Commentators expect the US economy to continue its recovery over the coming months, however figures such as yesterday's show that the recovery could be sporadic and any negative data is likely to lend credence to the hesitancy that Fed Chairman Bernanke expressed last week regarding the tapering back of the US bond-buying programme. Thus today's US Core CPI data, giving an indication as to the level of inflation in the world's largest economy, has the potential to cause further movement if figures differ from predictions. Call your trader now to keep pace with developments and to get a live quote.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen struggled yesterday in part due to the disparity in future monetary policy in Japan versus the US. The Canadian dollar also struggled yesterday alongside falling commodity prices and ahead of the Bank of Canada rate setting meeting on Wednesday. Overnight we saw the Reserve Bank of Australia release the minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting and later on today we have manufacturing sales figures released from Canada. Call Smart today for the latest news, and live quotes, for your currency.

Sterling slips as the UK awaits the BOE meeting minutes | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling slipped away a little on Friday, breaking through 1.51 and 1.16 against the US dollar and euro respectively. This week is a lot livelier on the news front than last with influential releases coming most days. Tomorrow sees annual CPI figures as well as other inflation data. On Wednesday markets get further insight into how the new Governor of the Bank of England will run his bank with the release of the minutes from the first meeting under his charge. On Thursday we have Retail sales figures, a key indication of consumer spending and growth in the country, markets will keep a keen eye on the release though the forecasts are not overly positive. Call your trader this week for the very latest news, and up to the second rates for sterling. 

Euro

The euro stayed broadly flat through Friday's trading in spite of somewhat disappointing manufacturing production figures. The major events this week are an influential German economic sentiment survey released tomorrow morning which is expected to show increased optimism. A bond auction on Thursday will show how much it costs the Spanish government to borrow money , but little else is scheduled to be released. Get in touch with Smart this week for an update on where the euro is trading right now.

US dollar

The US dollar got back into the groove on Friday as markets came to realise that, whether or not tapering of quantitative easing is to happen right away, the trend of monetary policy either side of the Atlantic appears to be moving in opposite directions. Those hoping for last week's excitement to have died down may well be disappointed with influential data being released most days. Today is retails figures, tomorrow inflation and Thursday sees Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speak again. Last time he spoke the US dollar dropped 2.5 cent - markets will certainly be nervous as he takes the stage again.  Call us today for a live rate on the US dollar.

Worldwide

Elsewhere the biggest loser on Friday was the Australian dollar, slipping 1.5% against its American counterpart. Overnight tonight eyes will look south again, with quarterly inflation figures from New Zealand, and the minutes from this month's Australian Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Later in the week, no change is forecast when the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision, and their new governor steps into Mark Carney's old shows and hosts a press conference. Call Smart today for the latest news, and live quotes, for your currency.

Difficult week for sterling, will it continue next week? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling was struggling as it began the week still looming in the shadow of new Governor Carney's comments. Things went from bad to worse though, as poor manufacturing and industrial production figures on Tuesday saw sterling's value fall by a further cent to 3 year lows - hitting 1.4814 against a strong US dollar. Sterling has then spluttered through the rest of the week against a wide range of currencies with little UK news being released. However it did gain nearly two-and-a-half cent as the US dollar took a dive overnight on Wednesday. Today is similarly quiet for news, instead traders will be looking to a busy week ahead with inflation figures as well as the minutes from the recent Bank of England meeting. Get in touch today for the latest news and up to the second rates for sterling.

Euro

A similarly steady week for the euro as markets became accustomed to the disparity in tone on monetary policy coming from central banks around the world. One of the members of the European Central Bank clarified that not only was there unanimity on the recent rate decision, but also that interest rates would absolutely not be raised for at least 12 months. Overnight on Wednesday euro finally broke through 1.30 mark against the US dollar, and pushed sterling back below the 1.16 level. Today sees very little news released so it's likely to be the same story again, but call your trader for an update.

US dollar

A tumultuous week for the US dollar - flying high through the early part of the week as markets speculated over the imminent end to ultra-loose monetary policy stateside. The Federal Reserve had made comments which lead traders to believe that the conditions were right to begin winding up quantitative easing programs. Markets looked to a speech from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to add certainty to their speculation - Chairman Bernanke went against all expectations as he explained that much more needed to be seen in inflation and employment figures before the tapering of quantitative easing could begin. The shock news caused the US dollar to plummet 2.5 cent, seeming to settle a new levels yesterday. Today sees the release of influential inflation figures, which have taken on extra weight after recent comments so the excitement may well continue today. Get in touch with us today for the very latest.

Worldwide

Elsewhere the commodity backed currencies; the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars enjoyed a strong start to the week, as risk appetite grew. Concern over poor Chinese figures saw early gains slip away midweek however. The Japanese yen has been weathering the storm well, making gradual gains against most major peers. The Danish, Swedish and Norwegian currencies similarly fared well in the first half of the week, but dropped off on the news from the US on ending stimulus programs. Call your trader today for the latest news and live rates on your currency.

US dollar weakens on Central Bank comments | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

A fairly steady day for sterling yesterday as markets caught their breath after an eventful first half of the week. Sterling gradually won back a cent from overnight lows against the US dollar, as markets nervously took position ahead of the release of the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes last night. Following the release, we saw sterling appreciate by two and a half cent against a particular weak US dollar. This morning sees one of Mark Carney's colleagues at the Bank of England speak; to which markets will look to clarify last week's comments on interest rates. Call your trader today for the latest news and up to the second rates on sterling.

Euro

Steady as she goes for the euro yesterday, trading in a very tight range against sterling for the whole day - notably holding above 1.16. The European Central Bank today gives its monthly bulletin which is likely to reiterate recent comments saying that interest rates will remain at current levels or below for at least the next 12 months. Markets seem to have become accustomed to such comments, so we’re unlikely to see a dramatic move unless something considerably different is said. Get in touch with Smart today for live rates for the euro.

US dollar

The US dollar slipped a little through London trading yesterday as traders positioned themselves ahead of last night's FOMC meeting minutes, and the speech from Committee Chairman Bernanke. The US dollar weakened significantly following the comments from the Committee Chairman where he somewhat contradicted his previous statements on monetary policy and suggested that policy should remain accommodative due to low inflation and the fact that the labour market remains weak (in spite of last Fridays positive figures). The minutes from the FOMC meeting had less effect on the markets as the members of the FOMC appear to be split regarding when the potential tapering should begin. Today the excitement may well continue with the release of unemployment figures this afternoon. Call your trader for the very latest.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, no real change for the Japanese yen ahead of an anticipated statement on monetary policy this morning following on from last night's news from the US. Concern over decreasing trade with China saw the Australian dollar end its two-day winning streak ahead of employment figures released overnight. Its antipodean counterpart, the New Zealand dollar, similarly slipped in spite of recent comments from the Finance Minister that interest rates were certain to rise. Get in touch with us today for the latest news and live rates for your currency.

Sterling falls to 3 year lows, US dollar remains strong | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Sterling plummeted to 3 year lows against the US dollar yesterday after manufacturing production figures and industrial production figures came in well below most analysts' expectations. The fall came despite the fact that the UK was one of only two nations to see its Growth forecast upgraded by the IMF. Today, like the rest of the week, is quiet on the news front for the UK with traders looking to next week for the minutes from the first Monetary Policy Committee meeting under Mark Carney's governance. Any major movement in rate today will be in reaction to news from around the world - particularly from the US as the minutes from this month's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are released this evening. Call your trader for the latest on sterling.

Euro

If sterling was weak, the euro was just as bad yesterday falling three quarters of a percent against the US dollar as a member of the European Central Bank clarified that not only was there unanimity on the recent rate decision, but also that interest rates would absolutely not be raised for at least 12 months. A quieter day again on the news front for the euro as well - French industrial production figures being the biggest release. Get in touch today for a live update on rates.

US dollar

A strong US dollar hit 3 year highs against sterling yesterday, also touching the highest point since March against the euro as everything crashed around it. This evening sees the release of this month's FOMC meeting minutes, which traders hope will clarify recent comments on the end of the super-loose monetary policy. The Chairman of the committee speaks after the release so we will no doubt see enhanced volatility ahead to the two events. The big question today is how high can the US dollar go, call your trader to find out.

Worldwide

Elsewhere it was a day for the commodity back currencies, as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars shone making gains across the board as risk appetite grew. The Japanese yen also had a strong day yesterday, holding its ground against a strong US dollar and making gains against other struggling major peers. Overnight we had Trade Balance figures from China, and an influential consumer sentiment survey from Australia ahead of employment figures tonight. Get in touch with us today for the latest news and rates for your currency.

Is sterling set for further weakness? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

After being pushed against the ropes overnight on Sunday - dropping to the lowest it has been since early March - sterling gained a little ground back against the dollar yesterday, pushing back above 1.49 again. The International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook today, with analysts saying it is likely that the UK will undo its recent downgrade and be forecast 1% growth in the next year. Key to that success will be the manufacturing sector, from which production figures are released this morning, with the expectation being that we will see growth return after a disappointing month. As long as the underlying data shows that recovery in the UK is gathering pace we can expect the pound to at least hold its own - if it goes the other way there is certainly room for even further weakness. Call in today for more news and up to the second rates for sterling.

Euro

Yesterday, the President of the European Central Bank President reiterated last week's comments that interest rates would be kept at least as low as they are for the foreseeable as the economic climate does not warrant a rise. Markets appeared to have become accustomed to the disparity between the noises coming from Britain and Europe, and those coming from the States, as there was no reaction to his words, instead we saw euro recover slightly. Talks get underway today between finance ministers where the focus will again be the next tranche of aid for Greece - while progress has been made in Portugal by proposing a Deputy Prime Minister, both regions still represent a threat to both Europe and the euro. Call now for an update on rates and news.

US dollar

After soaring to 4-month highs overnight, the US dollar had a fairly lacklustre day's trading; losing ground to most major peers as speculation grew that it had gained too much. Between now and Wednesday's release of minutes from this month's Federal Reserve meeting exchange rates are likely to be driven by risk sentiment. Yesterday saw positivity growing - good news for the more risky currencies, bad news for the US dollar - so there is potential for some weakening for the US dollar. Nonetheless, with the labour market appearing to grow, and Wednesday's announcement expected to further clarify plans to end the current ultra-loose monetary policy the outlook is largely positive for the US dollar. Get in touch today for the latest rates and news.

Worldwide

Yesterday, as today will be, was driven by risk and profit taking. As risk appetite grew, the Norwegian krone climbed by the most in 10 months - backed up by the feeling that its recent slide to almost three-year lows had been excessive. Similarly the Australian dollar, trading dangerously close to a three-year low against the US dollar, found a momentary lifeline thanks to a strong European stock market. The same could not be said for the Swedish krone, however, as manufacturing data came out worse than expected. The Canadian dollar rose from the lowest levels seen in almost two years as home construction data showed better-than-forecast figures. Overnight we saw the release of business confidence data from Australia and New Zealand, as well as inflation data from China. The rest of the day is a relatively quiet day on the data-front; with the only significant release being the Swiss monthly retail figures released first thing, risk will continue to be the key driver. Call your trader now for the latest on your currency pair.

Sterling suffering badly as temperatures soar | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

A very tough end to the week for sterling, struggling as the US dollar stole the limelight. An ailing sterling dropped below 1.49 and 1.16 against the US dollar and euro respectively on Friday and after a fantastic weekend for British sport, we will have to see how the British currency fairs through the course of this week. The next five days is devoid of data from the UK save for manufacturing production figures released on Tuesday. Given the strength of the manufacturing figures released last week, we anticipate good news. Whether that will be enough to give sterling a helping hand to find some strength again remains to be seen. Get in touch for the latest news and up to the second rates for sterling.

Euro

The euro had a mixed end to last week; comments made by the European Central Bank President on Thursday after the interest rate decision lead to the euro hitting five week lows against the US dollar, but against an even weaker sterling the euro managed gains of 0.3% on Friday. Today, the President of the ECB speaks again, markets will be volatile as traders look for further evidence of forward guidance and openly interventionist policy. Today we also see the release of German trade balance figures, and on Wednesday we have industrial production data coming out of France and Italy. Call today for the latest news, and live rates for euro.

US dollar

The US dollar soared on Friday, gaining a cent as employment data beat expectations. Markets saw this as a sign that the times are indeed ripe for tapering down loose monetary policy, and drove dollar to below 1.49 against sterling. This week the excitement continues - while the first half of the week is quiet for data, expect volatility to remain as traders place their bets ahead of the release of the minutes from this month's FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Committee Chairman Bernanke speaks as well, and markets will hope that together they clear up speculation over the end of quantitative easing. More employment figures are released on Thursday, and inflation numbers on Friday so the question is; can the US dollar hold on - will it stay below 1.50? Call your trader now to find out.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar weakened on Friday after both performing reasonably well earlier in the week. Looking ahead to this week, business confidence data coming from New Zealand on the Monday is likely to affect its currency's performance whilst the Australian Dollar will rise or fall on the back of Wednesday's consumer sentiment data and Friday's employment data. The Indian Rupee also fared poorly at the end of last week as did Chinese Renminbi. This was due to a number of factors including continuing US dollar strength and signs that growth in the Chinese economy is slowing down. Some commentators have suggested that we can expect further weakness in the Asian currencies as soon as the imminently-expected scaling back of US bond-buying occurs. Call in now to stay on top of the markets and for live rates from your trader.

New BoE Governor speaks, sterling plummets | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

Yesterday's expression of the day was forward guidance - indication from an interventionist central bank as to what they are going to do with interest rates into the future. In his first act at Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney issued a surprise statement yesterday which expressed the Bank's concern over rising gilt yields, and said that any rise in interest rates which might erstwhile have been implied was not warranted. Markets read this as the MPC giving forward guidance that interest rates would remain at record lows for the foreseeable future, and sterling plummeted across the board, breaking below 1.16 and 1.51 against the euro and US dollar respectively. While we saw a little recovery against a similarly weak euro, sterling stayed at 5-week lows against the US dollar. Away from our new Governor, PMI figures released earlier in the week made it clear that the recovery is well underway showing growth across the board including particular strong figures from the services sector which saw sterling strengthen mid-week.  Today is much quieter on the news front, and sterling will trade in the wake of yesterday's announcement. With traders heading back to their desks in the US, we could well see more excitement, call Smart today to find out how things are looking.

Euro

After struggling through the week, with unemployment reaching new all-time highs and PMI figures disappointing, the euro took a further spill yesterday following the ECB meeting. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, joined the ranks of the interventionists when he said that, "ECB interest rates will remain at present or lower levels….for as long as necessary." The unprecedented move to assure markets of future plans pulled the rug from beneath the euro, which dropped a cent against the US dollar on the news. The Portuguese question continues to hang around, as politicians battle to hold a straining coalition together. Call your trader today for the latest news and up to the second rates.

US dollar

An up and down week for the US dollar; as traders continue to speculate if conditions are right to justify a reduction in asset purchasing facilities. The US dollar even weakened in spite of solid labour data which showed that the private sector put an extra 188’000 workers in employment, whilst the number of new people claiming for unemployment related benefits fell. The US dollar held its own on independence day, gaining against its major peers whilst sterling and the euro fell through the floor. Today, traders will be back at their desks, as a result, the markets will be far more liquid. Moreover, today see’s the release of the highly influential Non-Farm payroll data which will be closely watched given the labour data released earlier in the week and the Federal Banks comments that suggest that quantitative easing will only be tapered when the labour market has recovered to a greater extent. Get in touch now for live rates and news for the US dollar. 

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the big story this week has been the Australian dollar which has seen both ends of a 4 cent range in two days. Assertions from the Reserve Bank of Australia that the Australian dollar would probably depreciate further if the economy needed it led the currency to 34 month lows on Wednesday, only to gain nearly 4 cent against sterling through trading yesterday as investors considered the likelihood of a further interest rate cut. The Japanese yen has also been struggling this week, seeing brief moments of strength as markets get nervous and look to de-risk. Today sees employment figures for Canada release with no major change forecast, and with the Canadian dollar having seen no move either way in the last week it seems unlikely that the trend will change today. Call your trader for up to the second rates, and the latest news, for your currency pair.

Good services data boosts sterling | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

The strongest day in many weeks for sterling, as Services PMI figures blew forecasts out of the water to post a sixth consecutive month of better-than-expected growth. The sector, which makes up 75% of UK GDP, is performing better than any other area and sterling climbed over a cent in the two hours around the release. Today is Mark Carney's first day in the public eye with the rate decision, and asset purchasing facility announced. We're unlikely to see any dramatic changes today – especially in light of the positive data emanating from the UK this week, what will be perhaps more insightful is the minutes from the meeting which are released in a fortnight. Nonetheless, markets will be nervous, and with trading volumes low nervousness is exaggerated into volatility so call your trader to find out where sterling is trading right now.

Euro

A dramatic day for the euro as two Portuguese ministers resigned from government, prompting concerns over stability in the region and over the depth of Europe's sovereign debt crisis. While the euro gained against a weak US dollar, nearly 1% was lost to both sterling and the Japanese yen. The political backdrop will continue to dominate affairs tomorrow, as well as the ECB’s rate decision and subsequent press conference this afternoon. Any change is unlikely, but traders will listen closely for any hints as to future monetary policy. With the holiday stateside, expect volatility to be far greater than normal around the conference. Call your trader today for the very latest news, and up to the second rates for the euro.

US dollar

The US dollar had a torrid day yesterday in spite of solid labour data which showed that the private sector put an extra 188’000 workers in employment, whilst the number of new people claiming for unemployment related benefits fell. Despite this, speculation grew as to whether progress in the labour market is sufficient to justify a reduction in asset purchasing facilities. The trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports, increased dramatically last month to show that imports into the US are near all-time highs. Today the US celebrates Independence Day and banks will be closed. With traders away from their desks, markets will be much less liquid than usual, and therefore much more volatile. Call in for to-the-second live rates.

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen enjoyed a strong day, benefitting from a risk averse market to push back below 100 against the US dollar. As Australia posted a higher than expected trade surplus, the Australian dollar briefly saw strength, only to promptly fall as the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor said that the currency would probably depreciate further if the economy needs it. The South African rand continued to struggle yesterday - falling for a third consecutive day as Chinese services data disappointed. The Polish zloty strengthened following comments for the central bank suggesting that after the rate cut in July, the easing cycle would be brought to an end. The Governor of the Bank of Japan has been speaking overnight and we also saw the release of building approvals figures from Australia; however, little else is scheduled to be released today. Get in touch today for the latest news, and live rates for your currency.

Sterling continues to lose ground against the dollar | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

A strong construction sector did not make for a strong sterling yesterday. While Construction Purchase Manager Index (PMI) figures were the best they have been since May 2012, sterling still lost ground against the US dollar – pushing as low as 1.5150 against a bright US dollar in the early afternoon. Today the big news is the last of the PMI figures - Services which make up 75% of the UK's GDP and has shown consistent growth, month on month, since February. The consensus expect slightly less growth than last month, but positive news nonetheless. If the release beats expectations - given the importance for the UK's economy as a whole - expect sterling to strengthen. That being said, you can expect the market as a whole to remain nervous in anticipation of the Bank of England monetary policy meeting on Thursday where we will see Mark Carneys’ first rate decision as Governor. Not only that, but on the same day we will have the ECB’s decision on interest rates and decreased liquidity due to the US markets being shut in accordance to the 4th July Bank Holiday. Call your trader this morning for the very latest developments.

Euro

The euro was soft yesterday in a day that saw unemployment figures revised up to new all-time highs of 12.2%. While it held its own against a weak sterling during the course of the day only losing ground after close of business here, a dominant US dollar pushed it below 1.30, remaining below this key psychological level as we enter today. Services PMI figures are released in Europe today, with Spain and Italy releasing theirs just ahead of the general release for the Eurozone. In contrast to the UK, the outlook is not great - with the expectation being another month of contraction. Get in touch with your trader today for up to the second rates. 

US dollar

The US dollar enjoyed a strong day yesterday as factory orders exceeded expectations to post a second consecutive month of growth in manufacturing. With a bank holiday tomorrow for Independence day, expect volatility to be on the up over the next few days. Eyes will be on unemployment figures released today and Friday with the consensus expectations being cautiously optimistic. The labour market has long been linked with monetary policy in the US and with chatter about the end of monetary easing programs dominating affairs, good news would definitely boost the dollar. Call in now for the latest news and live rates for the US dollar. 

Worldwide

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen failed to snap a 5 day trend as the US dollar pushed up through the key 100 mark once again. Strong figures from Japan appear to be having the opposite effect to anywhere else in the world, as markets are treating good news as a sign that ultra-loose monetary policy is working and will not be brought to an end soon.  The Canadian dollar slipped to a 20 month low after growth dropped last month, trade balance figures released this afternoon will drive volatility. Overnight we saw Australian retail figures and trade balance data released, but little else is expected to be released throughout the day bar the aforementioned  trade balance figures from Canada. Call your trader now for up to the second rates for your currency pair.