Sterling
Yesterday's expression of the day was forward guidance - indication from an interventionist central bank as to what they are going to do with interest rates into the future. In his first act at Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney issued a surprise statement yesterday which expressed the Bank's concern over rising gilt yields, and said that any rise in interest rates which might erstwhile have been implied was not warranted. Markets read this as the MPC giving forward guidance that interest rates would remain at record lows for the foreseeable future, and sterling plummeted across the board, breaking below 1.16 and 1.51 against the euro and US dollar respectively. While we saw a little recovery against a similarly weak euro, sterling stayed at 5-week lows against the US dollar. Away from our new Governor, PMI figures released earlier in the week made it clear that the recovery is well underway showing growth across the board including particular strong figures from the services sector which saw sterling strengthen mid-week. Today is much quieter on the news front, and sterling will trade in the wake of yesterday's announcement. With traders heading back to their desks in the US, we could well see more excitement, call Smart today to find out how things are looking.
Euro
After struggling through the week, with unemployment reaching new all-time highs and PMI figures disappointing, the euro took a further spill yesterday following the ECB meeting. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, joined the ranks of the interventionists when he said that, "ECB interest rates will remain at present or lower levels….for as long as necessary." The unprecedented move to assure markets of future plans pulled the rug from beneath the euro, which dropped a cent against the US dollar on the news. The Portuguese question continues to hang around, as politicians battle to hold a straining coalition together. Call your trader today for the latest news and up to the second rates.
US dollar
An up and down week for the US dollar; as traders continue to speculate if conditions are right to justify a reduction in asset purchasing facilities. The US dollar even weakened in spite of solid labour data which showed that the private sector put an extra 188’000 workers in employment, whilst the number of new people claiming for unemployment related benefits fell. The US dollar held its own on independence day, gaining against its major peers whilst sterling and the euro fell through the floor. Today, traders will be back at their desks, as a result, the markets will be far more liquid. Moreover, today see’s the release of the highly influential Non-Farm payroll data which will be closely watched given the labour data released earlier in the week and the Federal Banks comments that suggest that quantitative easing will only be tapered when the labour market has recovered to a greater extent. Get in touch now for live rates and news for the US dollar.
Elsewhere, the big story this week has been the Australian dollar which has seen both ends of a 4 cent range in two days. Assertions from the Reserve Bank of Australia that the Australian dollar would probably depreciate further if the economy needed it led the currency to 34 month lows on Wednesday, only to gain nearly 4 cent against sterling through trading yesterday as investors considered the likelihood of a further interest rate cut. The Japanese yen has also been struggling this week, seeing brief moments of strength as markets get nervous and look to de-risk. Today sees employment figures for Canada release with no major change forecast, and with the Canadian dollar having seen no move either way in the last week it seems unlikely that the trend will change today. Call your trader for up to the second rates, and the latest news, for your currency pair.
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