Is sterling set for further weakness? | Smart Daily Currency Note

Sterling

After being pushed against the ropes overnight on Sunday - dropping to the lowest it has been since early March - sterling gained a little ground back against the dollar yesterday, pushing back above 1.49 again. The International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook today, with analysts saying it is likely that the UK will undo its recent downgrade and be forecast 1% growth in the next year. Key to that success will be the manufacturing sector, from which production figures are released this morning, with the expectation being that we will see growth return after a disappointing month. As long as the underlying data shows that recovery in the UK is gathering pace we can expect the pound to at least hold its own - if it goes the other way there is certainly room for even further weakness. Call in today for more news and up to the second rates for sterling.

Euro

Yesterday, the President of the European Central Bank President reiterated last week's comments that interest rates would be kept at least as low as they are for the foreseeable as the economic climate does not warrant a rise. Markets appeared to have become accustomed to the disparity between the noises coming from Britain and Europe, and those coming from the States, as there was no reaction to his words, instead we saw euro recover slightly. Talks get underway today between finance ministers where the focus will again be the next tranche of aid for Greece - while progress has been made in Portugal by proposing a Deputy Prime Minister, both regions still represent a threat to both Europe and the euro. Call now for an update on rates and news.

US dollar

After soaring to 4-month highs overnight, the US dollar had a fairly lacklustre day's trading; losing ground to most major peers as speculation grew that it had gained too much. Between now and Wednesday's release of minutes from this month's Federal Reserve meeting exchange rates are likely to be driven by risk sentiment. Yesterday saw positivity growing - good news for the more risky currencies, bad news for the US dollar - so there is potential for some weakening for the US dollar. Nonetheless, with the labour market appearing to grow, and Wednesday's announcement expected to further clarify plans to end the current ultra-loose monetary policy the outlook is largely positive for the US dollar. Get in touch today for the latest rates and news.

Worldwide

Yesterday, as today will be, was driven by risk and profit taking. As risk appetite grew, the Norwegian krone climbed by the most in 10 months - backed up by the feeling that its recent slide to almost three-year lows had been excessive. Similarly the Australian dollar, trading dangerously close to a three-year low against the US dollar, found a momentary lifeline thanks to a strong European stock market. The same could not be said for the Swedish krone, however, as manufacturing data came out worse than expected. The Canadian dollar rose from the lowest levels seen in almost two years as home construction data showed better-than-forecast figures. Overnight we saw the release of business confidence data from Australia and New Zealand, as well as inflation data from China. The rest of the day is a relatively quiet day on the data-front; with the only significant release being the Swiss monthly retail figures released first thing, risk will continue to be the key driver. Call your trader now for the latest on your currency pair.